The situation is starting to get tense for the electrical system.
With the drop in temperatures, which remain below seasonal norms, electricity consumption in France is on an upward trend.
The first consumption peaks are expected in the coming days: a first Thursday at 7 p.m. (76.5 gigawatts), and a second next Monday at 12 p.m. (80 GW), according to RTE forecasts.
Forecasts "
likely to change significantly
" by then, nevertheless underlines the manager of the electricity transmission network.
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The next few days should therefore act as a first test for the solidity of the electrical system, which is the focus of concern this winter.
For Nicolas Golberg, energy expert at Colombus Consulting, the concerns are less about this Thursday than about next Monday.
Because for this Thursday, RTE's Ecowatt signal is green, meaning that there is no alert on the electrical system that day.
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On the other hand, “
if it continues to be really cold, we could have a first Ecowatt orange alert on Monday
”, warns the consultant and keen observer of the energy sector.
The orange signal being the second level of the Ecowatt device (before the red), signifying that the electrical system is tense and that energy saving gestures are welcome.
"
That does not mean that there are risks of cuts
", underlines however Nicolas Goldberg.
To keep the cold
This would be the first orange Ecowatt signal since April 4.
At the time, RTE had called for " eco-
gestures
" between 6 a.m. and 12 p.m., which had "
made it possible to save 800 megawatts (MW) at peak consumption
", the equivalent of "
almost the power of a reactor nuclear
”.
It should be noted that at the time, the Ecowatt tool was much less publicized than today.
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For the moment, the weather forecasts for the beginning of next week, which are still unreliable, anticipate the maintenance of cold weather in France, after a weekend where the cold should increase according to La Chaîne Météo* and where it is likely to snow in the plain.
Not good news for the electricity network, which currently has few production margins.
“
The shutdown nuclear reactors
have been slow to restart
.
They are currently producing 37 GW, which is not terrible
, notes Nicolas Goldberg.
In addition it is cold, gray and there is little wind, so wind and solar are weak.
“As for the fall in French electricity consumption observed this winter – which RTE estimates at 6 to 7% corrected for the weather –, “
it is a factor that is difficult to assess
”, indicates the expert.
“
Will that be enough?
It will also depend on how we react to Ecowatt alerts.
With perhaps the first orange level of the winter as early as next week.
*
The Weather Channel is a property of the Figaro group.
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