On December 5, the Ukrainian army's attack on Russia seemed to have entered a new stage.
Explosions occurred at Dyagilevo Air Force Base and Engels-2 Air Force Base, which are 500 kilometers and 700 kilometers away from the Russian-Ukrainian control border respectively. The former is only about 200 kilometers away from Moscow, and it is likely to be the Ukrainian army. for.
If so true, this will be the deepest Ukrainian attack to date on Russian borders.
Later in the same day, Russia launched another missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Ukraine said its air defense system shot down 60 of the 70 missiles. Russia claimed that all 17 targets were hit.
Although the two attacks have a chronological sequence, Russia's missile attack is likely to have been planned long ago and is a continuation of its war strategy since October, not specifically retaliation for the attack on its air force base.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, two air bases were attacked by Ukrainian "Soviet-made drones", which were shot down by the Russian side, but the fragments caused minor damage to the air base and two aircraft and killed three servicemen , 4 people were sent to the hospital for treatment.
Ukrainian officials did not admit responsibility, but Ukrainian officials such as presidential adviser Mikhail Podolyak responded with typical jokes: "The earth is round...the Kremlin didn't study astronomy...if something hits other countries In the airspace, sooner or later, unknown flying objects will return to the starting point."
At the same time, similar to previous attacks in which the Ukrainian side did not admit responsibility, the "New York Times" also received anonymous confirmation from a senior Ukrainian official that he had launched the attack.
Involving Russia's "Nuclear Habitat"
The attack on these two air force bases is definitely an action to provoke Putin.
Since October, Diagilevo and Engels-2 airports have also been used as bases for Russian bombers to attack Ukraine's infrastructure, and Ukraine's counterattacks are clearly targeted.
On November 30, the German "Der Spiegel" quoted the satellite photos of SGG-2, speculating that Russia was preparing to launch a large-scale attack on Ukraine-this attack did happen a few days later.
Satellite image of the Engels-2 Air Force Base the day before the attack.
(Reuters)
In addition, the Scigs-2 is also home to some of the long-range bombers Tu-160 and Tu-95, which are part of Russia's "nuclear triad" of strategic bombers.
It can be seen that the importance of this attack is not limited to the countermeasure against the Russian military's infrastructure attack, but also to prove that "mere Ukraine" is also capable of attacking the "ultimate weapon" of the Russian military.
This is of course a deliberate provocation to Putin, who has repeatedly mentioned the threat of nuclear weapons since the start of the war.
On the same day, Putin himself drove across the Crimean Bridge, which was attacked by Ukraine in October, as if to show the Russian people a signal that Russia remains strong. However, the bridge that was partially destroyed more than a month ago has not Not yet repaired.
Ukraine's attack on two air bases, like its attack on the Crimea bridge, has a double meaning.
One is a pragmatic attack on a strategic location, and the other is a targeted action with symbolic significance.
After this attack deep into the Russian border, the public opinion of Russian military observers turned to accuse the military of incompetence again, just like after the attack on the Crimea bridge.
Russian President Vladimir Putin inspects the Crimean Bridge on December 5.
(Reuters)
On December 6, there was also news that an air base in the Russian border province of Kursk had been attacked by Ukrainian drones.
We are temporarily uncertain whether Ukraine will continue similar offensives in response to Russia's repeated attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure.
How did Ukraine, with its limited weapons, go deep into Russia?
Since the range of the two air force bases seems to be far beyond Ukraine's capabilities, the outside world is also speculating on how the Ukrainian army penetrated into Russia to launch attacks.
In order to prevent the Ukrainian army from attacking targets on the Russian border, the "Himaras" multiple rocket launchers (HIMARS) supplied to Ukraine by the United States are only equipped with precision ammunition with a range of 80 kilometers; It has also been specially modified so that Ukraine cannot use the launcher on longer-range ammunition (mainly "ATACMS") that it may have obtained from sources other than the United States.
Therefore, the attack on these two air bases is more likely to come from Ukraine's own force.
According to analysis, Ukraine used unmanned aerial vehicles or short-range ballistic missiles to attack Crimea or border areas between Russia and Ukraine in the past, while attacks deep into Russia used underground organization personnel as a tool.
However, judging from the information on the attack on the air force base, there is no trace of the attack by the squad.
Therefore, the possibility of drone strikes is higher.
One of them may be a drone bought in the market, which has been converted into a "suicide drone" through Ukrainian modification.
Since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian army has been known for its "indigenous modification". Its attack on the Crimean Black Sea Fleet at the end of October was rumored to be the work of a "water drone" refitted from a jet ship equipped with cameras and gunpowder.
Coincidentally, in October, Ukroboronprom, a Ukrainian state-owned arms dealer, released a photo of a drone it claimed could fly 1,000 kilometers and carry a payload of 75 kilograms.
The company also said on Dec. 3 that it had completed a series of tests.
People are also speculating whether the U.S.-made drone was behind the attack.
Another possibility is another "indigenous modification" based on Soviet-made drones.
In March of this year, a Tu-141 Soviet-made unmanned reconnaissance aircraft that had been modified with a warhead crashed into the Croatian capital Zagreb (Zagreb), nearly 600 kilometers away from the Ukrainian border; Officials in the province of Kursk claimed to have shot down a Ukrainian T-143 surveillance drone.
Regarding the attack on December 5, "Russia Today" quoted Russian military commissioner Aleksandr Kots as saying that it was done by Ukrainian Tu-141.
However, these reconnaissance aircraft are already the technology of the 1970s, and the Tu-141 was retired after the disintegration of the Soviet Union; it was not until 2014 that Ukraine, which had no weapons to use in the face of Russian invasion, reluctantly entered service.
Bob Lee, a senior analyst at the U.S. Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), who once said that the UAVs were likely launched by the Ukrainian side in Russia, believes that if the murderer behind the scenes is really this kind of Tu -141, this will bring major doubts to Russia's air defense system.
After all, if the drones took off in Ukraine, they flew over hundreds of kilometers of Russian airspace, and finally approached the air base, which is the core of Russia's attack on Ukraine and nuclear weapons capabilities, and caused a certain degree of damage to the property of the base.
The reason why the Ukrainian army dared to go deep into the Russian border is closely related to the development of the war at this moment.
Maintain the initiative to avoid persuasion?
After winter comes, the United States believes that the offensive and defensive aspects of the Ukrainian war will be greatly eased.
Since the easing of the war has an advantage for Russia, which is being passive, it also gives Europe, the United States and Russia a gap to study the negotiation conditions. Ukraine, which is determined to win and advocates not giving up an inch of territory, has always insisted that the war will continue in the cold winter.
With the stalemate on the front lines, Ukraine must advance the battle through other means.
On the other hand, the United States has been worried that Ukraine's aggressive offensive will lead to Russia's escalation of the war, bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war, and has been hesitant to export more sophisticated weapons.
However, if Ukraine is provoking Putin step by step, but Putin is afraid or reluctant to escalate the nature of the war, this will also make the United States more daring to accept Ukraine's arms requirements, which will benefit Ukraine in the long run.
The "Guardian" reported that Western officials were quoted as saying that Kyiv did not always notify its Western allies before conducting some risky military operations.
The official believed that Kyiv's move was intended to avoid Western dissuasion, because it had previously dropped some attacks under Western pressure.
The operation that went deep into the Russian border this time may fall into this category.
In order to maintain the initiative in the war and resist any possibility of being forced to negotiate a compromise, similar risky actions may continue in the future.
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