After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukraine War, Central Asia and the Caucasus region, which used to be Russia's backyard, have experienced instability in a power vacuum where many countries compete for the throne.
On the one hand, it is the various disrespects of Russia's "Central Asian brothers" towards this "big brother".
In January this year, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who was firmly in power due to Russia's intervention in the name of the Collective Security Organization (CTSO, which can be understood as the Russian version of "NATO"), has spent more than half a year in Russia and Ukraine. They actually maintained neutrality, did not recognize Putin's claim of sovereignty over Ukrainian territory, and even banned the display of the "Z" symbol supporting Putin in various domestic actions.
Around the Shanghai Cooperation Summit in September this year, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov seemed to be late on purpose, making Putin stand and wait.
Putin has long been known for making foreign leaders wait, and rankings of their waiting times are circulating online.
It is inevitable that people will see the changing times after the Russia-Ukraine war in the scene of "Putin standing and waiting".
There are countless examples of this kind of "disrespect" of the Central Asian brothers.
On the other hand, Russia, which is too busy to take care of itself, can no longer suppress various conflicts in the region.
In September of this year, a border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, both members of the CSTO, broke out again, killing more than 100 people.
Russia has troops stationed in both countries, but the two countries still dare to fight, just like Turkey and Greece, which have long-standing territorial disputes in the Eastern Mediterranean in NATO, opened fire in disregard of the authority of the United States.
Also in September, Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, once again launched an attack on Armenia, despite the presence of Russia's peacekeeping force after the two countries exchanged fire in 2020.
Armenia, a member of the CSTO, asked Russia for military protection at the time, but Putin was only willing to send observers. In the end, Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan admitted that he had lost some territory due to the war.
By the time of the CSTO summit in November this year, Pashinyan publicly criticized the effectiveness of the organization, clearly targeting Putin present.
In recent days, Azerbaijan has also repeatedly disrespected Russian peacekeeping forces, once interrupting Armenia's only access to the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region (Nagorno-Karabakh).
Russian President Putin (middle) held a trilateral meeting with Azerbaijani President Aliyev (left) and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan (right) on October 31 to discuss the situation in the Naka region.
(AP)
Armenia's instability
The renewed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan seems to have forced Iran to intervene, trying to fill the power void left by Russia in order to protect its own geopolitical interests.
Regarding the conflict between Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan in September, analysts believe that the cause stemmed from the two sides’ issues concerning the transportation construction between Azerbaijan’s enclave of Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan’s mainland.
Nakhichevan is located in the southwest of Armenia. It is different from the Naka region where the two countries are competing. It belongs to the undisputed territory of Azerbaijan, but there is a piece of Armenian territory in the middle, which makes the two places "separated on land".
According to the ceasefire agreement after the Naka conflict in 2020, Armenia agreed to guarantee Nakhchivan's "safe transportation link" with Azerbaijan's mainland, but this promise has no more detailed content.
Azerbaijan's request is to open a "Zangezur Corridor" (Zangezur Corridor) on the Armenian-Iranian border between Nakhchivan and Azerbaijan's mainland, which is completely free from Armenian border controls. control area.
In this regard, Armenia certainly resisted tenaciously.
The Iranian side is also extremely dissatisfied with this.
On the one hand, this will make northern Iran completely surrounded by Turkish forces (press: Azerbaijan is a loyal ally of Turkey).
On the other hand, Armenia and Iran have been developing close economic and trade relations. The two sides have cooperation in various projects such as infrastructure and natural gas. Armenia is also suspected of being one of Iran’s exports to bypass US sanctions. The border controlled by other countries will hinder the two countries. Independent development of bilateral relations.
The blue area at the bottom of the picture is the land won by Azerbaijan after the conflict in 2020. The dark green is the land that Armenia handed over to Azerbaijan according to the ceasefire agreement. The orange is the Naka region that is still under the control of pro-Asian forces. The dark blue area in the picture It is the only passage from Armenia to the Naka region.
The lower left green area is Nakhchivan, an outclave of Azerbaijan.
(Wikimeadia Commons)
Iran was forced to intervene
Iran's supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in July this year that he opposed any actions that obstruct the border between Iran and Asia.
At the end of October, the Iranian Foreign Minister also communicated with Turkey again, drawing a red line that the Zangezur Corridor cannot be built.
In early November, when Pashinyan visited Iran, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi also made it clear that the Caucasus region is part of Iran's history, civilization and culture, and countries outside the region cannot interfere.
However, when Russia's assistance to Armenia is weak, Azerbaijan is increasingly lacking respect for Armenia's sovereignty.
Although Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev had negotiated with Putin and Pashinyan at the end of October, stating that he would not use force to resolve the issue, he publicly declared at the end of November that Armenia's independence was "just a formality". The construction of the Zangezur corridor needs to be discussed only with Russia.
The situation is such that Iran feels the need to intervene.
In late October of this year, Iran opened a consulate in Kapan, the southernmost province of Armenia, just above the border with Azerbaijan, to clarify Iran’s respect for Armenia’s sovereignty in the region, and at the same time to Turkey and Azerbaijan.
A few days before the opening of the consulate, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was also conducting military exercises along the border between Iran and Afghanistan, and even crossed the Aras River, which roughly divides the north-south border between Iran, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Aras River) North Shore.
[The following is the opening ceremony of the Iranian Consulate in Kapan, attended by the foreign ministers of the two countries.
]
Azerbaijan vs Iran
As if to respond to Iran, Azerbaijan passed the decision to set up an embassy in Israel, Iran's sworn enemy, in November. It is the first Shia Muslim country to set up an embassy in Israel.
Azerbaijan and Israel have long-term cooperation in military technology and energy supply.
At the same time, the anti-hijab order and anti-government demonstrations in Iran since September have also begun to be used by Azerbaijan as a means to promote internal instability in Iran.
Northwest Iran, home to nearly 15 million people of Azerbaijani origin, has been the scene of frequent demonstrations recently, and some demonstrators died as a result, sparking public outrage.
Alitov said earlier that the well-being of Azerbaijanis abroad is extremely important to Azerbaijan, and he will do everything possible to assist, and the voices that have been fighting for the secession of Iran's Azerbaijani areas from Iran have also begun to appear on Azerbaijan's official media. .
From the above-mentioned developments, it can be seen that the Caucasus power void indirectly caused by Russia's bitter battle with Ukraine has caused major instability in the region.
Iran, which could have stayed out of the matter and can't take care of itself, has reached the point where it has to intervene in a high-profile manner.
The shift in the balance of power in the Caucasus may cause Iran to reconsider its position in the Russia-Ukraine war: Is it of sufficient strategic value to Iran to continue to support Russia?
During Russia's attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure in recent months, Iranian-supplied drones have been widely used. Iran, which initially denied arms transfers to Russia, finally admitted that it had sent drones to Russia before the war.
According to the Ukrainian side, the number of Iranian drones exported to Russia may be as high as 2,400.
Western intelligence also shows that Iran may export missiles to Russia to make up for the shortage of Russian missiles.
In September of this year, Pelosi visited Armenia and met with Prime Minister Pashinyan.
(AP)
However, on December 6, Mykhailo Podolyak, chief adviser to the Ukrainian President's Office, told The Guardian that Iran has not yet sent missiles to Russia, and it is also because of the diplomatic pressure it is facing and its internal problems. May not export missiles to Russia.
Ukraine previously downgraded its diplomatic relations with Iran due to the supply of drones. The statement made by Ukraine at this moment may indicate that the relationship between Russia and Iran has reached an upper limit.
On the other hand, in preparation for the Russian oil restrictions imposed by the West this week, some Western media reported that Russia has raised a number of oil tankers for its own use in order to bypass Western sanctions.
Some even came from ships originally used for Iranian oil exports.
This also highlights the fact that there is an economic conflict of interest between Russia and Iran, both oil exporters sanctioned by the West.
The power vacuum in Russia's Caucasus backyard may also open a gap for Iran to break away from Russia's position and improve relations with the West.
Armenia is the only country in the world that is pro-American and pro-Iranian.
In September this year, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Armenia while Russia was unable to provide aid to Asia, becoming the most senior U.S. official to visit the country after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
Armenia also has the image of a bridgehead of democracy and human rights in the South Caucasus in the United States.
Of course, expecting the Iranian regime, which has a deep anti-American tradition, to quickly break the ice with the West, is likely to be hanging on a tree, but retaining Armenia, an ice-breaking channel other than returning to the nuclear agreement, is undoubtedly a wise diplomatic way out, and it also shows that Iran does not necessarily have to stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia.
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