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Terms of endearment: the situation of the forming coalition and the USA | Israel Hayom


Biden does not want to fight with Israel because he has problems at home, and the government in Israel does not miss the debates from the Obama days • But over construction in the West Bank and Smotrich reforms, Washington and Jerusalem will degenerate into conflicts

"We fully respect the democratic choice of the Israeli people and congratulate Benjamin Netanyahu. We will judge the government according to the policies it will take and not according to individual people (its members)," said the American Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, on Sunday, and welcomed her government 36 of Israel who will soon begin her term.

This conciliatory attitude of Blinken is not self-evident.

For example, he could have raised the issue of the consulate for the Palestinians again.

He could also - as famous commentators predicted - that the mere sitting in the government of ministers with illiberal positions would create difficulties for the relationship between the countries, or choose any other wording that would hint at expected disputes.

Instead choose a positive note.

There are no coincidences here.

Except for the efforts of the American ambassador, Tom Neides, to calm the spirits in Washington towards the new government, the Biden administration is not looking for quarrels with Israel.

He has enough trouble on his mind.

Trying to calm the spirits in Washington.

American Ambassador Tom Neides (archive), photo: Oren Ben Hakon

Even though - and perhaps precisely because - many of the senior members of the current administration are graduates of the Obama era, they have no nostalgia for the frequent conflicts between the two countries.

No one came out of them hired.

conflict management

At the end of Obama's term, Netanyahu hijacked Security Council Resolution 2334 which harmed Israel, but at the same time tarnished the president's legacy as anti-Israel.

Prime Minister at the time and in the future Netanyahu, for his part, forced on Obama a trench battle in the Senate over the nuclear agreement with Iran.

The agreement was indeed approved, but exacted prices from the Americans.

In short, not a time to miss her.

But what is just as important, then there were fights about the big things.

Today they will be about the small details, those in which the devil is found.

Because Biden himself stated during his visit to the country that a permanent agreement between Israel and the Palestinians is not realistic at the moment.

A senior American official recently added that the goal of the administration now is to "manage the conflict" - the exact words that Israel has been using for many years.

In other words, no American intends to impose a grandiose process tomorrow.

What's more, there will be debates about the scale of construction in the West Bank, about the economic situation of the Palestinians and their various rights, and perhaps also about the reforms planned by Smotrich in the Civil Administration.

Planning reforms in the civil administration.

Smotrich, photo: Oren Ben Hakon

Because even if the opening atmosphere is pleasant, no one is deluding themselves that there won't be gaps.

Blinken, in a symbolic and meaningful way, chose to deliver his words precisely to the J Street lobby, which is boycotted by the State of Israel due to its problematic positions.

And yet, the quarrels will be about the details, not the big goal that everyone thinks is unattainable.

Three in one hit

A similar situation prevails with Iran.

On this front as well, the American administration has long been forced to make up de facto with the Israeli line, which rules out a nuclear agreement again (Iranian refusal to the very soft conditions of the Americans is the main reason for this).

So the question that the Americans will ask Netanyahu when they meet with him in a few weeks will be what to do with Iran in the absence of an agreement.

Here they are expected to encounter an orderly Mishna.

Judging by the plan of Netanyahu's thought twin and number one confidante, Ron Dermer, then he intends to offer Biden a deal that can be called - three in one blow.

Dermer and Netanyahu (archive),

When they meet, the Prime Minister will tell the President that the policy towards Iran must be completely reversed, and among other things, all European sanctions must be reinstated.

The second step is a public and intense embrace of the Iranian protesters in a historic speech.

The third move is an American alignment to the right of Saudi Arabia and the other historical allies of the US in the Arabian Gulf.

The result of these three steps, Dermer estimates, will be a decrease in energy prices in the world, peace between Saudi Arabia and Israel and a Nobel Prize for the American president, as well as stability for generations to come in the Middle East.

"This can be done in the near future, still in his current term. Biden may receive a Nobel Peace Prize, if he takes the right steps," he said this week in a "non-diplomatic" manner.

However, as far as Biden and his people are concerned, adopting the aforementioned initiative will not be easy. Iran, the officials are convinced, needs to be appeased. Saudi Arabia is a bone in the administration's throat due to the Khashoggi affair, and peace between Riyadh and Jerusalem but without the Palestinians does not excite at least some people.

It will take great courage and great effort for Biden to force such a dramatic turn in his foreign policy.

So even if at the starting point Jerusalem and Washington are not looking for friction, it is considered inevitable.

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Source: israelhayom

All news articles on 2022-12-07

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