Hundreds of thousands of dead and a new virus variant: This is what threatens after the end of China's zero-Covid policy

Created: 12/08/2022, 12:08 p.m

By: Sven Hauberg

China has surprisingly relaxed its corona measures.

Experts fear up to a million deaths - and a "leap" in the evolution of the corona virus.

Munich/Beijing – The joy at the end of the zero-Covid policy is increasingly mixed with concern in China.

"I have already bought medicine and am now waiting for the fever to start," writes a user on China's Weibo social network.

"Take every precaution!" warns another.

And a third finds it “unscientific” that people who have been infected with the corona virus are now allowed to isolate themselves at home: “In Beijing, people live close together, so infection is likely!” His demand: “Infected people must to the hospital!"

China's government announced a reversal in its corona policy on Wednesday.

After almost three years in which the country had tried to nip every virus outbreak in the bud with lockdowns, mass tests and forced quarantine, people now apparently want to live with the virus.

In addition to the possibility for people without symptoms or with a mild course of the disease and for contact persons to go into isolation in their own four walls, the obligation to carry out frequent PCR tests and the constant control of the Corona app for scanning have also been relaxed.

In addition, lockdowns should only be imposed on individual buildings, floors or households and should no longer be extended "arbitrarily" to entire districts or streets.

In March Hong Kong saw many infections and deaths.

The rest of China could now face a similar threat.

© Dala de la Rey/AFP

End of China's zero-Covid policy: Experts warn of a rapid increase in infections.

China's government announced the easing just days after massive protests against the corona measures erupted in dozens of cities across the country.

At the same time, the country has had the highest number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic almost three years ago.

Around 32,000 new infections were reported as of Thursday, according to the National Health Commission.

However, the real number is likely to be significantly higher.

Since testing was no longer mandatory in many areas, self-tests have recently been allowed again.

Residents of the capital Beijing report infections in their circle of acquaintances that were discovered after self-tests but were not reported to the authorities.

The fear of being sent into forced quarantine is apparently still great.

In addition, there is now a growing fear of infection.

Older people are particularly at risk: only around two-thirds of people over 80 have received two vaccinations so far.

Only around 40 percent received the booster, which offers full vaccination protection with the inactivated vaccines used in China.

Many vaccinations are a long time ago.

In addition, herd immunity could not develop in China due to the strict protective measures of recent years.

According to official figures, China has had around 5,200 virus-related deaths and just 1.8 million infections since the outbreak of the pandemic – out of a population of 1.4 billion.

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Experts are therefore warning of a rapid increase in infections.

The former vice director of the national health department, Feng Zijian, assumes that 80 to 90 percent of the population will be infected with the virus, as reported by state media on Thursday.

In the first wave, the infection rate should reach around 60 percent according to model calculations.

"Reasonable measures" must be taken to keep the peak of this wave low and ease the burden on public health, the government adviser told an online forum at Beijing's Tsinghua University.

The peak of the wave will put "tremendous pressure" on the medical system, warned Feng, who advises the government's working group on dealing with the pandemic.

That is why preparations have to be made.

Analysts expect one million corona deaths in China

The analysts at Wigram Capital Advisors, an advisory group that has supported governments with models during the pandemic, even expect up to a million corona deaths in China.

According to calculations, if the government further relaxes the corona measures, 20,000 people could die of a corona infection every day by mid-March.

"China has done nothing" to prepare for the easing, Wigram's Rodney Jones told the

.

State and party leader Xi Jinping "seems to be doing this more spontaneously in response to the protests than as part of a careful political program."

Jones also points to the low vaccination rate in China.

The country has so far only relied on self-developed vaccines and refuses to use foreign mRNA vaccines that are considered more effective.

In addition, many booster vaccinations are many months ago.

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According to experts, China's surprising opening policy could also influence the global development of the pandemic.

For example, the German virologist Christian Drosten fears the emergence of a new virus variant.

“The virus can always develop particularly well when there are many infections.

at the end of November - i.e. before the end of the zero-Covid policy

.

Because the immunity of the population in China is not high, one “cannot rule out that another leap will happen there in terms of evolution”.

However, he does not expect such a development in the near future, said Drosten.

"And it may just as well be that nothing happens at all at first."