It's getting tight for Erdogan: The Turkish election is approaching - now it's about "dividing"

Created: 12/08/2022 10:11 am

By: Leonie Hudelmaier

In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is struggling for approval.

There is calculation behind each of his steps.

Because the election is near.

An expert explains the strategy.

Munich – Apart from him, nobody is sitting at the table, which has been polished to a high gloss.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan bends over a large paper with his defense minister.

A short murmur and Erdogan gives the attack order.

From the conference room of his Boeing 747-8i, the Turkish President is waging war in neighboring countries.

Captured on a video by the Turkish Presidential Office.

A staging.

A bomb exploded in a shopping street in Istanbul in mid-November.

Six people died.

Erdogan blames the banned Kurdish Workers' Party PKK and the Syrian Kurdish militia YPG for the attack.

Since then, Turkey has been flying airstrikes on Kurdish positions in northern Syria and northern Iraq.

For the pro-Kurdish HDP party, it is clear: Erdogan “opened the election campaign with his war policy in order to prolong his political lifetime,” says Pervin Buldan, the party’s co-chair.

Turkey election: "If the Kurds don't go to the ballot box, Erdogan has a chance"

Erdogan is expected to stand for re-election in June 2023 – shortly before his 20th anniversary in power.

It could get tight.

Polls indicate a stalemate.

As things stand, Erdogan's AKP and its far-right coalition partner MHP do not have an absolute majority.

But the same applies to an opposition alliance of six parties around CHP and the allied Iyi party.

For Erdogan, it's about dividing the opposition - and he can do that best over the Kurdish question

Günter Seufert, Head of the Center for Applied Turkey Studies

Whether the opposition can prevail against the government alliance depends on the Kurdish voters.

The HDP is not part of the opposition alliance, but its voters could tip the scales.

"If the Kurds vote for the opposition, Erdogan will lose.

If they don't go to the ballot box, then Erdogan has a chance to win," says Günter Seufert, head of the Center for Applied Turkey Studies.

The current Turkish attacks in neighboring countries are acting like a magnifying glass on the work of the opposition.

How the alliance positions itself on this attack is decisive for the voting behavior of the Kurds.

Erdogan before the Turkish elections: "For him it's about dividing the opposition"

However, it remains difficult to find a consistent line between strongly religious and secular parties or between liberal and conservative orientations.

"For Erdogan, it's about splitting the opposition - and he can do that best through the Kurdish question," says Seufert.

But the six-party pact puts Erdogan under pressure.

Politicians presented a plan for constitutional amendments last week: the president's powers are to be significantly restricted.

Since a referendum in 2017, Erdogan has ruled almost completely.

He has made provisions for the approaching election anyway: most of the Turkish media reports are pro-government.

Critical media come under pressure, journalists are arrested.

And "the judiciary also makes many tendentious judgments," says Turkey expert Seufert.

The opposition politician and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has to experience this firsthand.

In an ominous trial, he is accused of insulting state officials.

The public prosecutor is demanding a prison sentence of at least 15 months – including a ban on politics.

As a member of the largest opposition party, Imamoglu is considered a possible challenger to Erdogan in the presidential election. 

Erdogan is flexing his muscles – with Sweden, Ukraine, Greece and the EU

Meanwhile, Erdogan is fine-tuning his international image.

In the war against Ukraine, he acts as a mediator in the blocked grain deliveries.

The Turkish President has the upper hand when it comes to the question of Sweden and Finland joining NATO.

At the same time he is threatening the European Union with a possible stream of refugees.

And in the ever-smoldering conflict with Greece, Erdogan is flexing his muscles.

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There is also a lot to do in your own country.

Inflation is beyond 80 percent.

But Erdogan will not lose his regular constituency.

"The economic crisis is gnawing at Erdogan's approval ratings, but it alone will not lead to people reorienting themselves politically," says Seufert.

Erdogan has a number of electoral gifts for the lower classes who vote for him: raising the minimum wage, capping the price of food and medicine, and a major housing program.

But Erdogan isn't just trying to please the voters in his own country.

German Turks can also vote.

According to

, the AKP is already distributing election advertising in mosques and Turkish associations in this country.

Erdogan loves the election campaign in Germany.

With success: in 2018 he reached almost 65 percent here.

Leonie Hudelmaier