Moisés Expósito-Alonso, on silent extinction: "The Anthropocene has already caused an irreplaceable loss of biodiversity"

Moisés Expósito-Alonso (Alicante, 32 years old), ecologist and evolutionary biologist, directs the center on plants at the Carnegie Institution at Stanford University (United States).

The work of the Spaniard is aimed at finding resistance in plants to climate change, focusing on their genetic diversity as a way of adapting to extreme situations.

In his laboratory in Palo Alto (California, USA), he has 30,000

plants , little more than a weed, related to cabbages or the mustard plant, but which is vital in research as its whole genome sequenced.

The ideal candidate for a reference model to be subjected to all kinds of climatic pressures, from extreme droughts to torrential rains, in order to know the future scenarios that the Anthropocene outlines for the different species on Earth.

"We basically use plants like mice or fruit flies in laboratories," explains Expósito-Alonso, smiling, because "this way we are able to measure each genetic change and calculate all the parameters."

His latest work, recently published in the scientific journal

, paints a bleak picture for the achievement of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 in terms of Biodiversity conservation.

The calculations of his team suggest that more than 10% of all species have already disappeared, so conservation initiatives should be reconsidered.

With this objective, Expósito-Alonso, who attends EL PAÍS by videoconference, attends the Montreal summit on biodiversity (the UN COP15), which is being held these two weeks in Canada, where he will discuss his work on genetic diversity this Saturday December 10.

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The silent extinction: the human being triggers the sixth mass disappearance of species on the planet

Ask.

Are we on time to meet the United Nations objectives regarding the conservation of species, which aim to preserve 90% of all the world's biodiversity?

Response.

Several hundred species of animals and plants have already become extinct since the industrialized era due to human activity, the impact of which has halved the Earth's ecosystems, affecting millions of animals.

Hence our work, as a way of evaluating what the current situation is and what we must do, to set realistic conservation objectives.

Q.

We are fully in the Anthropocene.

A.

I don't think there are conceptual problems with the definition, when more than 44% of all the terrestrial area of ​​the planet has been modified by humanity.

An era that began more than 10,000 years ago with the first human populations, the creation of settlements, and the popularization of agriculture, and that has continued with our exponential population growth and multiple environmental impacts on Earth.

A sample of 'arabidopsis thaliana' in the experimental orchard of the MOILAB of Stanford University in Palo, California (USA)MOILAB

Q.

Does the loss of an animal's habitat area, caused by deforestation or by building a road over it, directly affect its ability to reproduce?

A.

Sure, it can geographically prevent populations of the same species from interacting with each other.

The loss of a species' habitat has serious implications for the genetic richness of an animal or plant, and its ability to cope with the upcoming challenges of climate change.

Natural selection sounds like mutations and superpowers;

but in reality they are small natural variations in the genes that affect the ability to survive and reproduce, pure adaptation

Q.

But above all, ecological niches matter. Is genetic variety one of the keys to the success of animals in surviving?

R.

Until recently, this important component was not taken into account when setting biodiversity conservation goals, but without a diverse pool of natural genetic mutations to draw on, species will be limited in their ability to survive alterations in their geographic distribution area.

One of the problems is that defining the genomic variability of a species is complicated.

One measure is the mutation count per species, how many letters are different in your DNA: in each ACTG (Single Nucleotide Polymorphism).

Using genetics and population dynamics equations, we have calculated the habitat area lost for many species, and this may have meant that an average of 14% of the world's biodiversity has already disappeared and is irreparable.

As far as we know right now,

Q.

Do you think its importance has not been conveyed?

R.

What worries me most right now about the Anthropocene is the extinction of natural genetic variation, since its rate of recovery is much slower than its loss.

We care about a single animal, a tiger or a panda, while the rest of the species are suffering millions and millions of impacts.

We could keep 100% of the planet's species in a museum or zoo right now, but this would not save them.

If they are all the same, clones or siblings, waiting for them to recover their genetic wealth through natural mutations would be equivalent to millions of years.

The larger the set of mutations a species can draw from, the better the chances of finding that lucky mix that will help it thrive despite the pressures created by climate change.

The more diversity,

Q.

A problem that has been seen with agriculture, in the relationship between the destruction of certain habitats and how viruses

to humans, right?

R.

Exactly, it is what is seen in agricultural monocultures.

When in an ecosystem you don't have natural variation, as we call mutations, what happens is that certain diseases manage to

the immune system and colonize you.

A very clear case that happens in crops without variety.

When there are not several ways to recognize a pathogen, it is much easier for it to be transferred, due to pure epidemiological dynamics.

Using genetics and population dynamics equations, we have calculated the habitat area lost for many species: an average of 14% of the world's biodiversity has disappeared, perhaps irreparably.

Q.

Do you think that evolution continues to be misunderstood, as it is generally thought of as something esoteric?

A.

Natural selection sounds like there is an agent driving it, but that is a human linguistic problem.

Actually, I think, it's because we misunderstand statistics.

In popular culture, mutations convey superpowers that defy the laws of physics.

But in reality, it is the theory of evolution, mutations represent small random natural variations in the genetic code that could positively or negatively affect an individual organism's ability to survive and reproduce, passing the positive traits on to future generations.

Pure adaptation.

More than 30,000 plants are used to find out plant resistance to extreme climatic situations, at Stanford University (USA)MOILAB

Q.

On your research plantation do you plan for future hypothetical scenarios with different genetic variations?

A.

We generate this by mixing seeds from many parts of the world, and exposing them to a Californian climate, similar to that of southern Spain.

In addition to knowing the entire genome of the 30,000 plants, in our gardens we control the rainfall, each drop of rain, the temperature and the characteristics of the soil.

Q.

They use the CRISPR genomic design tool, will they manage to remote control evolution?

R.

It is the million dollar question, can we predict it?

And then we asked ourselves: how many mutations would we need to be able to adapt to all possible scenarios?

The uncertainty is not knowing which mutation is going to be the winner, we are talking about millions.

Q.

Will they be able to find the genes capable of adapting to climate change?

R.

If that's possible, I'll tell you in a couple of years [smiles].

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