In the language of economists, the shock suffered by France this year is called a deterioration in the terms of trade.
That is to say that the rise in energy prices and the weakness of the euro have increased the difference between the prices of French exports and that of imports.
“
France being a net importer of hydrocarbons, the rise in their relative price mechanically leads to a loss of the country's real income which could reach 85 billion in 2022
”, details in a note from the Treasury to Bercy, the economist Guillaume Clavéres.
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This concept of deterioration in the terms of trade was invented in the 1950s by the first secretary general of Cnuced, Raul Prebisch, and the Briton Hans Singer.
Their thesis, arguing that the price of agricultural products, sold by developing countries, inevitably falls compared to the prices of manufactured goods, aimed to warn against the increase in inequalities between North and South.
They hadn't planned...
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