Despite EU billions in aid: This winter will change the Ukraine war so much

Created: 12/14/2022, 10:10 am

By: Marie Ries, Nils Tillmann

Combat in winter: The next few months in the Ukraine war will be tough.

© Anatolii Stepanov/AFP (Montage: Litzka)

Frozen rivers and little daylight: the cold season heralds a completely new phase in the Ukraine war.

How the winter could benefit the Ukrainian army, but harm the population.

A first blanket of snow lies over Kyiv.

Covered in white are the wrecked Russian tanks on display in the Ukrainian capital to boost morale.

But these days children are also playing with snowballs in the streets, wrapped up warm.

Pictures that show: winter has arrived in Ukraine.

And as our analysis shows, this will also have a massive impact on the coming war.

Troop movements, weapons, morale and equipment: The next few months will be different than many think.

This is shown, among other things, by data from the military, weather services and international experts.

Billions in aid for Ukraine in winter

The international community has already reacted and is supporting Ukraine with emergency winter aid worth a good one billion euros.

This sum came together on Tuesday at an international conference of supporters for the country, which was badly hit by the Russian war of aggression, in Paris.

The focus of the aid is on repairing the severely damaged electricity and heat supply, said French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna.

In Paris alone, 415 million euros were collected for maintaining the energy supply.

Other aid goes to water supply, transport, health and nutrition.

"With the help, we have a direct impact on the lives of millions of people."

Ceasefire unlikely, despite the freezing cold

Despite the freezing cold, a ceasefire this winter is considered unlikely.

Instead, according to military experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the fighting could even pick up speed.

Because in winter the ground is favorable for heavy military vehicles.

The hard ground allows tanks and trucks to move much easier than the muddy, wet conditions of spring and fall.

Fight in double-digit minus temperatures in the Ukraine war

But what does winter actually mean in a country like Ukraine?

Temperatures often drop below zero between December and February.

Unlike in Germany, the average temperature between Lviv and Luhansk is well below freezing, as our visualization shows.

The lowest value on the thermometer last year was -31.5 degrees Celsius.

In many regions, entire rivers can even freeze over.

This also suits Ukraine, who have been playing more of an attacking role lately.

The winter will thus make the often difficult crossing of the country's numerous bodies of water much easier.

But Russia could also use the ice sheets for possible new offensives.

However, the snowfall is already a challenge for both sides. As a result, troops and vehicles advance more slowly and their fuel requirements increase.

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Russian troops lack equipment and training

When dealing with ice and snow, the right equipment will play a crucial role in this war.

The Ukrainian army and the NATO countries also know this.

The federal government provided support, for example, with 100,000 cold jackets, 240,000 winter hats and 100 field heaters.

Ukraine also received thousands of night vision goggles.

The Russian troops, on the other hand, are said to lack exactly this type of equipment.

The cold can also have a massive impact on machines and equipment.

An example of this are the Iranian kamikaze drones, which have been playing an increasingly important role in Russian warfare since the fall.

Between November and December, there was an abrupt, week-long pause in the use of drones.

Because the technology of the drones had to be adapted to the colder weather conditions during this time, as analysts from the ISW suspect.

Good training of the troops is also the key to military success under these harsh conditions: shrapnel can also ricochet off icy ground and injure soldiers.

Likewise, weapons can freeze and even the trajectories of bullets are different in cold air.

In this situation, too, the Russian army could be at a disadvantage.

Some of the Russian reservists who have been called up since the summer have already been sent to the front after minimal training and despite a lack of equipment.

This could lead to poor morale in the squad.

You can always find an overview of the developments on the fronts over the next few months in our daily updated maps of the Ukraine war.

"Cold as a weapon" against the civilian population

The winter also has serious consequences for the civilian population.

The cold months will be life-threatening for millions of people in Ukraine, the World Health Organization (WHO) warns.

Since autumn, Russia has been massively attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

As a result, parts of the country are often without electricity, heat or water.

According to the Ukrainian grid operator UKRENERGO, Ukraine produced only half as much electricity at the end of October as at the end of January.

In the weeks that followed, numerous substations, power plants and lines were damaged by attacks.

According to the human rights organization Amnesty International, the attacks on civilian infrastructure are war crimes.

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj personally accuses Russia of using "cold as a weapon".

Temporary remedies should be created this winter, among other things, by warming rooms.

These heated shelters provide electricity, water, internet and medical care.

More than 4,000 are to be set up across the country.

In Kyiv alone there are already hundreds of such rooms, as our visualization shows.

Despite this, the situation remains critical for many people in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government is therefore asking people who have fled abroad to spend the winter outside of the country.

Nevertheless, Kyiv continues to do everything in its power to defy the Russian attackers in winter.

“We have something that the occupier does not have and will not have.

We protect our home, and that gives us the greatest possible motivation," said Zelenskyy.

When winter is over, new problems await the armies

Even if temperatures finally climb above freezing again in the spring, the weather will remain a significant factor in the Ukraine war.

Because then the snowmelt creates large areas of mud and rising river levels.

Already in the first weeks of the war this had represented a major obstacle to the Russian invasion.

Again and again, heavy military equipment got stuck in the muddy ground and became an easy target for Ukrainian shelling.

In Russian, this time is called "Rasputiza" - which means something like the time of the roadlessness.

Transparency: Our data, sources and methods

For this text, we analyzed data on the climate in Ukraine in the databases of the German Weather Service and the Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank.

The low of the past year is based on a statement by the Boris Sreznevski Observatory in Kyiv.

When analyzing the impact on wartime events, we rely on assessments by military experts from the Institute for the Study of War and the Royal United Services Institute, as well as on information materials from the US Army and the German Armed Forces on fighting in cold regions.

Information on German supplies of equipment to Ukraine comes from the federal government.

Information on the destruction of Ukraine's power grid comes from the International Energy Charter, which has been documenting attacks on the country's power infrastructure for several months.