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"Putin will insist on a breakthrough": Russia is probably planning a new offensive after Christmas

2022-12-15T12:54:07.251Z


"Putin will insist on a breakthrough": Russia is probably planning a new offensive after Christmas Created: 2022-12-15, 1:46 p.m By: Stephanie Munk Putin is planning a new major offensive in the Ukraine war. That's what US military experts believe, and Ukraine is also counting on it. Two axes are suitable for this. Kyiv/Moscow - Is Russia planning a new major offensive in the Ukraine war after


"Putin will insist on a breakthrough": Russia is probably planning a new offensive after Christmas

Created: 2022-12-15, 1:46 p.m

By: Stephanie Munk

Putin is planning a new major offensive in the Ukraine war.

That's what US military experts believe, and Ukraine is also counting on it.

Two axes are suitable for this.

Kyiv/Moscow - Is Russia planning a new major offensive in the Ukraine war after Christmas?

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba has now warned that Vladimir Putin's army is preparing for a large-scale offensive in January and February 2023, the Ukrainian politician told journalists, according to the Ukrainian news agency Ukrinform.

Indicators are an increased mobilization of Russian soldiers and the transfer of heavy weapons.

"Putin will insist on a breakthrough," Kuleba is quoted as saying.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expects a new Russian offensive in the new year.

© Lev Radin/Imago

Ukraine News: US experts expect a major Russian offensive

The US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which has been intensively analyzing military events since the beginning of the Ukraine war, is also expecting a new major Russian offensive at the beginning of the new year.

The Ukrainian ground is then frozen hard by persistent temperatures below zero degrees and offers favorable conditions for fast offensive actions, compared to the rather muddy ground in autumn.

Both sides - both Russia and Ukraine - would therefore likely increase their offensive pace.

Russia is probably planning a new offensive in the Ukraine war - two axes are possible

According to the ISW, two main axes for Russian offensives are possible: in north-eastern Ukraine along the border between Kharkiv and Luhansk or in the Donetsk region.

According to the experts, there are certain indications for both.

The Russian troops positioned heavy equipment from remote areas in Luhansk along the Kharkiv-Luhansk border and regrouped their military troops there.

In addition, Russian troops that became free after the withdrawal from Kherson were transferred to various areas in the Donbass, and newly mobilized reservists would reinforce them there.

But Putin's forces could also try to complete the capture of the entire Donetsk region, US analysts say.

The region was annexed by Russia in violation of international law at the end of September, but the Russian occupiers do not have complete military control over it.

A Ukrainian tank near Bakhmut in the Donetsk region.

© Anatolii Stepanov/AFP

New offensive by Russia in the Ukraine war: chances of success probably rather low

Although Putin is probably planning new offensives in the Ukraine war - the experts at the ISW do not assume that he will have great success with this.

"Russian combat capabilities" remain weak and it is "highly unlikely" that Russia will be able to "capture strategically important areas in the coming months."

A few days ago, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov ruled out a ceasefire in the Ukraine war over Christmas.

On the contrary, there are even fears that Belarus will become involved in the Ukraine war and fight alongside Putin's troops.

For Ukrainians it is the first Christmas since the beginning of the Ukraine war on February 24th.

Many people are homeless because of the massive Russian shelling or have no electricity or heating in the sub-zero temperatures.

(smu)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-12-15

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