Biden laughs at Trump at press conference 0:34
(CNN) --
Even as President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump move toward a repeat of the most turbulent White House race in modern history, many voters yearn for a break with the past -- and with the present. .
A new CNN/SSRS poll shows that 6 in 10 Republicans and pro-GOP independents want their party to nominate someone other than Trump in 2024. A similar percentage on the other side expect a candidate other than Biden.
These results suggest that voters are prepared for the days of presidential campaigns in which one generation passed the torch to the next.
A contest between Biden and Trump would raise the question of whether a bitterly polarized political system, in which democracy itself is at stake, has lost the capacity for self-renewal that has always been an American strength.
And I would suggest that the heady allure of an outsider, which produced presidents in 1992, 2008 and 2016, has been held at bay for now.
ANALYSIS |
The moment of truth for Trump and the US Department of Justice is fast approaching.
Of course, it is soon.
And the 2022 midterm elections remind us that in a volatile and partisan age, clouded by crises at home and abroad, logic, history, polls and pre-race predictions months in advance rarely count for much.
But the race is on, whether voters like it or not.
Early insights into contenders' strengths are important, as they shape the decisions of potential rivals and donors in the early money race.
Trump is already an declared front-runner, though he could use a relaunch after a tepid start, and Biden is giving all the signs that he plans to run, suggesting he will let the country know for sure early in the new year.
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Midterm elections, in which Democrats retained the Senate and Republicans won a slim majority in the House, help explain the poll results.
Voters hoping for a return to normalcy promised by Biden after generational woes of public health and inflation were less than enthusiastic about the president, whose low approval ratings kept him out of the race in battleground states.
But neither were they confident that the Republican Party, still under the influence of Trump, could fix things.
The poll also points to one of the emerging paradoxes in the nascent race to 2024. Although they are the most powerful figures in their parties, both Biden and Trump seem strangely vulnerable at the start of the two-year campaign, and could face complications from a changing political environment, external factors or age.
These are Biden's challenges after the midterm elections 1:52
Trump's appeal seems to be fading.
Disastrous midterm elections for many of his candidates in swing states, reflecting weariness with his incessant whining about 2020, meant voters rejected his brand in back-to-back national elections.
Trump's knack for thwarting accountability, meanwhile, is facing its toughest test with the two special counsel investigations.
And some Republicans are looking elsewhere.
The CNN poll shows that when Republican Party voters are asked who they would prefer, 47% have an alternative in mind.
Nearly 4 in 10 of them choose Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is untested on the national stage but already looms as a major threat to the former president.
As for Biden, it is not flattering for a president that a majority of his own voters want to see another as a candidate.
Any commander in chief with an approval rating below 50% like Biden is often vulnerable in a re-election race.
And there has never been a presidential election in which an eighty-something president is asking for a second term.
Biden said he highly respects fate, an indication that he understands that, at his age, the good health necessary for a campaign is not a given.
But the president ends the year in better political shape than Trump, and appears to have stabilized his slide.
This summer, only 25% of Democratic-aligned voters wanted him to be their nominee.
Now that figure is 40%.
And among those who want someone else, 72% say they have no one in mind, further reinforcing the advantage that an incumbent president usually has over a primary contender.
Trump at a crossroads
Republican politics may or may not be in a moment of transition.
The evolution of events in the coming months will be decisive for Trump's prospects.
On the one hand, more and more Republicans — motivated by the failure of many of the former president's chosen candidates in the midterm elections — say it's time to move on.
And Trump's dinner with extremists with a history of anti-Semitism like white supremacist Nick Fuentes and rapper Kanye West at Mar-a-Lago is bolstering his arguments that his general election viability is hopelessly damaged.
Trump's so far mediocre campaign, which appears to have been declared to make it easier for him to present criminal investigations into his conduct as persecution, is convincing no one so far.
ANALYSIS |
How Joe Biden and the Democratic Party challenged the midterm election story
And yet, the former president's allies, such as Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Jim Jordan of Ohio, will have enormous influence on the new Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
Paradoxically, the failure of Republicans to do better in November means that a thinner majority will be easier to manipulate for extremists seeking to weaponize Republican control of half of the Capitol to harm Biden and help Trump in 2024. .
Another campaign will test whether there was erosion of Trump's base.
But even if his mythical connection to those voters isn't enough to win him the presidency, it could still lead to his third consecutive nomination.
The unwillingness of most Republican lawmakers to repudiate Trump over comments like his recent call to scrap the Constitution suggests they remain swayed by the former president's supporters at home.
The same can be said for House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy, who has found a way not to condemn Trump's recent associations with extremists in his desperate bid to seize the House Speaker's gavel next month.
Trump was regularly winning big primaries in 2016 with between 30% and 40% of the vote in a wide field.
In the CNN poll, 38% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said they want Trump to be the nominee again.
(And even two-thirds of those who said they would prefer someone else said they would definitely or probably support him in the general election if he were the nominee.)
GOP hopefuls will see that 38% - the lowest point in three CNN polls on the issue this year - as an opening for an anti-Trump candidate.
But another big field could splinter opposition to the former president among unproven potential enemies.
Although DeSantis, for example, has impressed conservative voters by tapping into hot culture war topics like immigration, transgender rights, anti-covid 19 measures and alleged voter fraud, he has yet to come face-to-face. with Trump.
The Florida governor, who won an easy re-election last month, has not said whether he will run against Trump, who framed him in his first gubernatorial race with an endorsement.
But a series of debates with Trump in the primary would test his ability to take a hit, his ability to think on his feet on the ground and his willingness to strike back at a former president who still benefits from a cult of personality among the rank and file voters of the Republican Party.
Trump, after all, is at his most ruthless and politically effective with an enemy in his direct crosshairs.
And DeSantis has a lot to lose.
Biden is not going to start listening to the polls now
Biden's best response to Democrats who would prefer another candidate is that he has already beaten Trump in 2020 and avoided the traditional smackdown of first-time presidents in the midterm elections, in part by warning that Trump's ultra-MAGA forces will they were rallying for another assault on American democracy.
It is nothing new that Biden does not have the confidence of his party.
His previous two presidential campaigns soon fizzled out and his 2020 bid was in disarray until a victory in the South Carolina primary salvaged his White House hopes.
Heading into the midterm elections, it was widely believed that Biden's low approval ratings and rampant inflation would deal him a devastating blow.
But the Republican red wave never came and Democrats added a seat to their slim majority in the Senate, though the White House relief hid the liability he will face before a radical GOP-controlled House with investigative powers.
Trump announces his candidacy to seek the Republican nomination in 2024 2:21
So a president who has consistently defied expectations about his political vitality is unlikely to pay much attention to polls that suggest voters want someone else.
Biden also recently bolstered his firewall against a primary challenge by rocking the Democratic primary season, downgrading the Iowa caucuses—where he has never fared well—and elevating his beloved South Carolina to the top spot in the presidential race. the primaries.
The lack of a strong Democratic alternative also helps Biden.
Vice President Kamala Harris has not performed strong enough for her party to clamor for Biden to step aside in her favor.
And other Democrats with an eye on the White House will be reluctant to hurt a sitting president of their party.
After the midterm elections, a president looking for arguments for re-election can find many.
The CNN poll shows Biden on an upward trajectory and in a better position in his party than Trump in his.
And this week's economic indicators, which showed the high cost of living may be cooling off, could also help Biden.
Still, any president is profoundly vulnerable to unexpected external events that could splinter his approval ratings and re-election chances.
And the oldest president in the history of the United States will have to face the problem of age on a daily basis.
Republicans will seize any slowdown in the campaign, or even a cold, as proof that he is unfit for a second term.
And while Biden appears healthy, the odds of an adverse event increase for people over the age of 80.
The question of his age, however, could be less important if Biden faces Trump, who is already 76 years old.
But the current commander in chief could be vulnerable to a young Republican challenger like DeSantis, for example, who is in his 40s.
After all, the idea of leadership passing from one generation to the next may be a potent possibility in 2024.
Donald Trump Joe Biden