From Putin friend to Kremlin enemy: Khodorkovsky describes three scenarios for the end of the Ukraine war
Created: 12/15/2022, 10:05 p.m
By: Fabian Mueller
Kremlin critic and ex-oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky in March 2022 in Berlin © Bernd von Jutrczenka/dpa
The former Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky spoke in an interview about a possible end to the Ukraine war.
He describes three conceivable scenarios.
Kyiv/Moscow - In a little over two months, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will last a year.
Thousands of deaths, immeasurable suffering, the war in Ukraine has permanently changed Europe's view of Vladimir Putin's Russia.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky is one of the people initially seen as a supporter and profiteer of Russian Putinism, but for many years has been a bitter enemy of the Kremlin.
In an interview with the
Tagesspiegel
, the formerly richest Russian (estimated fortune: 15 billion dollars) now spoke, among other things, about possible scenarios for an end to the war.
According to Khodorkovsky, there are three possibilities - the worst in his eyes: "The West tires and stops supporting Ukraine." That would allow Putin to reorient his country towards a war economy and, with one or two more mobilizations, to reach the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv .
Purin enemy Khodorkovsky describes three scenarios for the end of the Ukraine war
This scenario would spell doom for Ukraine, but for Putin it would just be another step to polish his damaged image in Russia.
Because even if he had more than two-thirds of Ukraine under control, according to Khodorkovsky, he would have to "continue to wage war" "in order to solve Russia's economic problems".
Scenario two describes a deadlocked war: "The conflict is frozen," says Khodorkovsky to the
Tagesspiegel
.
"15 percent of Ukraine remains occupied by Russia." Putin could take a deep breath, but then the war would continue because the national patriots in Russia would force him to take this step.
Video: Ex-oligarch Khodorkovsky explains why Putin attacked Ukraine
In the third variant, which Khodorkovsky calls “the best scenario”, the West continues to provide serious military support to Ukraine.
Then "Ukraine could recapture its territory at least up to the borders of February 24, 2022".
It is difficult to predict whether Crimea can also be won back.
For Khodorkovsky, however, it is clear that in this situation "Putin could lose power".
He hopes: "A peace agreement could be reached under a new Russian government." A scenario that many in the West would certainly subscribe to.
(fmu)
