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Heating oil prices at record levels: what experts expect for 2023

2022-12-16T11:13:46.050Z


Heating oil prices at record levels: what experts expect for 2023 Created: 12/16/2022 11:59 am By: Lisa Mayerhofer Due to the energy crisis, heating oil prices have risen rapidly - and are still at a high level. What can consumers expect in the coming year? Berlin - Energy prices have risen sharply since the outbreak of the Ukraine war - and that doesn't seem to be changing for the time being.


Heating oil prices at record levels: what experts expect for 2023

Created: 12/16/2022 11:59 am

By: Lisa Mayerhofer

Due to the energy crisis, heating oil prices have risen rapidly - and are still at a high level.

What can consumers expect in the coming year?

Berlin - Energy prices have risen sharply since the outbreak of the Ukraine war - and that doesn't seem to be changing for the time being.

According to the Federal Statistical Office, energy products rose in October by 43 percent compared to the same month of the previous year due to the globally increased purchase prices.

While natural gas prices more than doubled by 109.8 percent, district heating was 35.6 percent more expensive and heating oil was 82.8 percent higher than in the same month last year.

Heating oil prices are rising: will there be a price brake soon?

In view of the exploding costs for the population, the federal government has decided on numerous relief measures.

In December, for example, there will be a one-off payment for gas and district heating users, and in the coming year there will be an electricity and gas price brake and a cap on district heating prices.

However, those who use heating oil will get nothing from the relief programs.

An apartment building is filled with heating oil via a nozzle.

© Patrick Pleul/dpa-Zentralbild/Symbolbild

In October, the consumer advice centers therefore asked the federal government to also consider users of oil and biomass heating systems.

The head of the Federal Association (vzbv), Ramona Pop, told the German Press Agency: "In order to treat consumers equally - regardless of the heating system - the Federal Government should, in the opinion of the vzbv, also create a relief mechanism for oil and biomass heating systems, which will reduce the cost increases as a result to a similar extent as for gas.”

According to a position paper, when this mechanism takes effect will depend on price developments.

However, this does not initially promise a price brake for users of heating oil: Because the price of heating oil has risen much less than the price of gas.

"An "oil price brake" would only have to be developed if the oil price were to rise to significantly more than double the previous year's value," the paper says.

It is currently not possible to predict whether this will happen.

Heating oil price: Oil prices are rising again

But how will the price of heating oil develop in 2023?

To do this, you first have to take a look at the price of crude oil.

After falling, this has now risen again: on Tuesday morning, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent cost 84.67 US dollars.

That was $1.48 more than the day before.

Since Monday afternoon, speculation about the further production policy of the oil association Opec+ has given oil prices a new boost.

Analysts assume that the oil states organized in Opec+ could consider cutting production due to the recent drop in prices.

The signs are pointing towards slightly rising prices – also because the oil embargo against Russia will come into force in December.

According to an analysis by Commerzbank, the oil price should be $95 per Brent barrel by the end of 2022 and in the first half of 2023.

In the second half of 2023, Commerzbank forecasts an increase to $100.

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Heating oil prices: What to expect in 2023?

And the heating oil prices?

In November, these actually fell continuously over a period of several weeks.

"At the beginning of October we were at 170 cents per liter, in the meantime the price has leveled off at 150 cents," said Oliver Klapschus, head of the comparison portal Heizoel24.de, in November compared to the

Handelsblatt

.

However, compared to the previous year, this is still a doubling of the price.

Klapschus assumes that prices will "definitely remain at an elevated level" in November and December.

The head of the company also does not expect heating oil to become cheaper in the foreseeable future.

At least he doesn't fear any further record increases: "As long as there are no special factors - such as a particularly cold winter, changed market conditions or a further intensification of the Ukraine war - prices should not rise too much."

According to the Handelsblatt,

Klapschus advises consumers to

shop with caution.

"Over the long term, heating oil was often cheapest in January and February," he told the magazine.

"If I can still save myself over the turn of the year, then I can perhaps speculate that the price will drop another ten to 20 cents at the beginning of next year." order pusher".

Personal security of supply has priority.

(lma/dpa/AFP)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-12-16

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