No Putin, uprisings, civil war: expert predicts “fragmented Russia”
Created: 12/16/2022, 5:34 p.m
By: Patrick Mayer
Does anyone look tired?
Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin in mid-December, after ten months of war in Ukraine.
© IMAGO / ZUMA Wire
A defense expert predicts Vladimir Putin's fall as a result of the Ukraine war.
He even predicts a possible civil war in Russia.
Munich/Moscow – Only the title of the security policy analysis has it all.
"Preparing for the final collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolution of the Russian Federation" is the title of Luke Coffey's essay, which appeared on the website of the US think tank "Hudson Institute".
Russia in the Ukraine war: security experts believe Vladimir Putin will fall
In the said article, the British defense expert not only predicted the fall of Moscow ruler Vladimir Putin.
The former adviser in the British Ministry of Defense also predicts a bleak future for Russia.
Because: In his opinion, a defeat of the Russian army in the Ukraine war is only a matter of time.
Then, in his view, the “Russian Federation”, as Russia is called as a state model, and with it the former “Soviet Union” will finally disintegrate.
According to Coffey, the consequences will be: riots, civil war – and new borders within the largest country on earth.
In the video: Compact – The most important news about the Russia-Ukraine war
"The fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the resignation of Mikhail Gorbachev as President of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked the beginning of the collapse of the USSR - but not the collapse itself," writes the analyst in his paper, published shortly after its publication attracted a lot of media attention on December 14th.
Russia: After the Ukraine war – expert predicts new borders in the federation
Coffey: "While the USSR ceased to exist as a legal entity after 1991, the collapse of the USSR is still taking place today." USSR was once the abbreviation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
The invasion of Ukraine is now probably the "final moment for the collapse of the Soviet Union".
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Russia will continue to fragment.
Luke Coffey, security expert at the US think tank "Hudson Institute"
Russia has undeniably suffered a severe blow to its economy, "a destruction of its military capabilities and a deterioration of its influence in regions where it once had influence," Coffey writes, predicting that "the borders of the Russian Federation will be drawn on a map in probably won't look the same in ten or twenty years as they do today."
Riots in Chechnya: an indication of possible uprisings in Russia?
Instead, Russian politicians would have to start redrawing Russia's borders.
His thesis: republics will rise up in uprisings for their independence from Moscow.
Striking: Just a few days ago, Putin's so-called "bloodhound", Ramzan Kadyrov, apparently had to send his own special units to the Chechen city of Urus-Martan because there had allegedly been a conflict between police forces on a busy thoroughfare, which led to a great commotion.
Chechen leader and "Putin's bloodhound": Ramzan Kadyrov.
© IMAGO/Yelena Afonina
Videos published by the independent Russian online portal
Meduza
are said to document the unrest and the subsequent raid "against their own people".
An isolated case?
Or an indication of a change in mood?
"Revolution, insurgency and civil war - both national and regional - could occur after the dissolution of the Russian Federation," writes Coffey, who repeatedly refers to Chechnya.
"Putin's cook" Yegveniy Prigozhin and Ramzan Kadyrov: New rulers in Russia?
Based on this example, he believes in an increase in “private armies” that will fight among themselves for political influence.
As an example he cites the mercenaries of the so-called “Wagner group” of “Putin’s Koch”, Yegveniy Prigozhin, or the 141st Chechen motorized special regiment, “commonly referred to as Kadyrovites”, he writes in his essay: “These groups and their leaders become to key leaders in a post-Putin Russia — especially in a society that will have tens of thousands of veterans of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.” Coffey concludes: “Russia will continue to fragment.”
(pm)
