(Economic Observation) China's steady growth will increase and promote industrial quality and quality
China News Agency, Beijing, December 18 (Reporter Liu Yuying) Industry is the "basic disk" of China's macroeconomic operation.
The Central Economic Work Conference held this week made deployments for stable economic growth, highlighting progress while maintaining stability, which will promote the maintenance of reasonable growth in various indicators of the industrial economy in 2023 and achieve effective qualitative improvements.
In the first 10 months of 2022, the added value of China's industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.0% year-on-year, and the industrial economy remained generally stable.
At the same time, the upgrading trend of the industrial structure has not changed, the new kinetic energy continues to grow, the rapid growth of the equipment manufacturing industry demonstrates the resilience of the industrial economy, and emerging products and new kinetic energy products continue to lead and create new demand.
In November, due to the intensified short-term impact of the epidemic, China's industrial production fell back. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.2% year-on-year, which was 2.8 percentage points lower than that in October; the manufacturing PMI fell to 48.0%, the lowest level for two consecutive months. At the critical point, the downward pressure on the manufacturing industry has increased.
Amid increasing external uncertainties, China's industrial growth is under pressure.
Gao Ruidong, chief macro-economist of Everbright Securities, said that according to the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy next year, increase the intensity of macro-policy regulation, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of various policies, and promote the overall development of the industrial economy. better.
Specifically, in terms of fiscal policy, it is expected that the deficit rate will be raised to boost aggregate demand more effectively; in terms of monetary policy, it is expected that a combination of aggregate tools and structural tools will increase support for small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, Support for green development and other fields.
In terms of industrial policy, we will pay close attention to the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of strategic emerging industries, so as to promote a virtuous cycle of "technology-industry-finance".
The Central Economic Work Conference particularly emphasized the expansion of domestic demand, "putting priority on the recovery and expansion of consumption."
"Recovering and expanding consumption is not only the key to promoting the overall improvement of economic operation and boosting market confidence in the short term, but also an important basis for improving the demand structure and promoting the domestic cycle in the medium and long term." Gao Ruidong said.
While the economy is growing stably, the meeting proposed that industrial policy should be developed and safe at the same time.
Li Keaobo, executive vice president of the China Institute of Economic Thought and Practice at Tsinghua University, said that this is a new requirement for economic development in the new era.
This is mainly due to the major and profound changes in the current international environment. As pointed out in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, "external suppression and containment may escalate at any time" and "various 'black swan' and 'grey rhinoceros' events may occur at any time." , which requires that security must be integrated in every aspect of development.
Under the main tone of development and security, it is an important starting point to make up for the shortcomings of the industrial chain.
The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to focus on the key industrial chains of the manufacturing industry, identify key core technologies and weak links in parts and components, concentrate high-quality resources to jointly tackle key problems, and ensure that the industrial system is independently controllable, safe and reliable.
Gao Ruidong said that it is expected that industrial and technological policies will be further solidly implemented, traditional industries will be further promoted in greening and intelligentization, and emerging industries will be accelerated in high-end and clustered development.
Driven by the new national system and the two-wheel drive of "specialized, specialized and new" enterprises, the "stuck neck" link is expected to be accelerated, the industrial chain and supply chain will be further stabilized, and new drivers of economic development will continue to emerge. Together with the gradual improvement of the modern industrial system Become a powerful driving force for high-quality economic development.
The Central Economic Work Conference also proposed that "rely on innovation to cultivate and grow new kinetic energy for development".
Regarding the new kinetic energy, Li Keaobo said that with the adjustment of the global industrial structure and layout, new opportunities can be divided into three major fields. One is the field of science and technology, including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, chips, quantum computing, etc.; the other is The green field includes new energy, low-carbon technology, etc.; the third is the health field for an aging society.
Gao Ruidong believes that the new driving force lies in the accelerated construction of a modern industrial system.
Traditional industries must take into account the role of economic "ballast stone" and double carbon "vanguard", while emerging industries must continue to play their leading role in the process of industrial upgrading.
At the same time, encourage and attract more private capital to participate in the construction of major national projects and short-term projects.
Continue to attract and utilize foreign capital in terms of expanding market access, protecting the rights and interests of foreign capital, and providing convenience.
(Finish)