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On his first trip to Minsk since 2019, Vladimir Putin arrived in Belarus reluctant to hint at his next moves on the battlefield.
But with the news of his trip, fear has grown in Kiev that the Russian president, between economic promises and energy cuts,
will begin to pressure his counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, to join a new ground offensive against Ukraine
.
Russia has no intention of absorbing anyone, Putin said.
Last week several Ukrainian military commanders claimed that Russia could launch another attempt to invade the country from the north.
The president, Volodimir Zelensky, assures that
Ukraine will be prepared for "all possible defense scenarios"
against Moscow and its ally.
Lukashenko has previously allowed the Kremlin to use his country as a platform to send tens of thousands of Russian troops to Ukraine, and Russian warplanes have taken off from Belarusian bases.
But if Belarus joins in with soldiers this time, it will already be two armies against one.
Lukashenko has, since the 2020 riots, a more precarious internal situation than Putin's.
This makes him even more dependent on Moscow's plans.
But he also complicates any war adventure in Ukraine, which would be unpopular with Belarusians.
More than 90% of its citizens do not want to send their army.
Aware of the danger of new street unrest,
Lukashenko has refused to allow his army to participate directly in the fighting
.
He even had to get out of the way by proclaiming this week that he is the boss in Belarus, in a clear allusion to the Kremlin.
Both countries have had a customs and economic union for years.
Moscow wants to go further, and knows that it raises some suspicions in Minsk.
"Russia has no intention of absorbing anyone
," Putin said reassuringly.
But he at the same time accused "our enemies" of "wanting to prevent the integration of Russia and Belarus."
After the experience of last February, the West does not trust.
"Putin's visit to Minsk could indicate that
Putin is trying to set the conditions for a renewed offensive
against Ukraine, possibly against northern Ukraine or Kiev, in the winter of 2023," the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank, although it also does not point to it as a clear imminent risk.
The director of the CIA, William Burns, former ambassador in Moscow, ruled out in statements to the US press that Russia seriously consider negotiations with kyiv at this point in the campaign.
The commander of the Ukrainian Joint Forces, Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev, believes that Putin is seeking at least greater Belarusian involvement in the conflict.
But it is also possible that Lukashenko's recent maneuvers are a ploy designed by Moscow to mobilize Ukrainian forces close to the border,
avoiding their deployment in other areas
.
Belarus, warm up engines and have done maneuvers in recent days.
At the moment they serve to force kyiv to divert forces to the north.
Their defense in Donbas weakens a bit and their advance is postponed in Kherson.
Perhaps when the ground freezes, mechanized fighting will return to the south.
Lukashenko and Putin play distracting, try to make Zelenski nervous.
The opening of a second front could put the Ukrainian Army in a lot of difficulties.
It is public that Russian troops were deployed to Belarus in October, and that they will soon carry out tactical exercises.
It has been announced by the Russian Defense Ministry.
According to Minsk, the Russian component of the regional grouping is made up of up to 9,000 soldiers, some 170 tanks, up to 200 armored combat vehicles and up to 100 large-caliber guns and mortars, reports EFE.
But it is not known when and where such maneuvers will take place in Belarus.
Zelensky fears for his northern border.
The Kremlin does not give clues.
He assures that the talks between Russians and Belarusians
focused on "the political-military situation" surrounding both countries, their "defensive capabilities" and "joint response measures" to the challenge represented by NATO
.
Part of the 300,000 reservists mobilized by Putin are trained precisely in Belarus.
For his part, Moldova's spy chief warned Monday of a "very high" risk of a new Russian offensive towards the east of his country next year.
Alexandru Musteata believes that Moscow is still aiming to secure a land corridor through Ukraine to the Moldovan breakaway region of Transnistria.
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