The "last adjustment" of refined oil this year falls on the 19th, or ends with a "three consecutive declines"

　　Sino-Singapore Jingwei, December 19th (Guo Jinjia) At 24:00 on the 19th, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open.

Institutions generally predict that domestic refined oil prices will usher in a "three-game losing streak."

　　In this round of pricing cycle, crude oil futures prices basically show a trend of first falling and then rising, and the average price has dropped significantly compared with the previous round.

The market is worried that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in order to limit inflation, the risk of a US economic recession has increased, and investors are increasingly worried about the outlook for energy demand.

In addition, the U.S. dollar index rose, U.S. refined oil inventories increased sharply, and Russian crude oil supply increased instead of decreasing and hit the highest level in nearly eight months.

The negative supply and demand side led to a series of sharp declines in oil prices.

Although the negative factors eased in the later stage and oil prices closed up moderately, they remained at a low level as a whole.

　　On the morning of the 17th Beijing time, WTI crude oil futures closed down 2.39% at $74.29/barrel, up 4.6% this week; Brent crude oil futures closed down 2.67% at $79.04/barrel, up 3.86% this week .

　　Zhongyu Information pointed out that the downward trend of this round of refined oil retail price limit is hard to change, and the wait-and-see sentiment has shrouded the market, and the bearish atmosphere in the region has not diminished.

And as the temperature continues to drop, and some cities are affected by the domestic epidemic prevention policy, the demand for refined oil products is average. Mid-stream and downstream customers are more wait-and-see, less operations, poor trading, and some cities have a situation of price but no market.

Crude oil continued to rise in the middle and later stages, driven by the mentality of "buy up and not buy down", more replenishment was made on demand, and the transaction showed a short-term improvement.

　　According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the ninth working day on December 16, the average price of reference crude oil was US$76.76/barrel, with a change rate of -6.84%. The corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be reduced by 460 yuan/ton.

According to the principle of "ten working days", the price adjustment window for this round is 24:00 on December 19.

A retail price reduction is a given.

Based on the current crude oil level, it is expected that the rate of reduction will most likely exceed 450 yuan/ton.

　　According to Sino-Singapore Jingwei, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have undergone 23 rounds of adjustments, showing a pattern of "13 ups, 9 downs, 1 stranded". The cumulative increase in gasoline prices is 1,030 yuan/ton, and the cumulative increase in diesel prices is 990 yuan/ton.

If this round of reduction is implemented, the domestic refined oil price adjustment will usher in the 10th reduction within the year, and the retail price of refined oil within the year will end with a "three consecutive declines".

　　According to the principle of "one adjustment every ten working days", the next round of price adjustment window is 24:00 on January 3, 2023.

　　Looking forward to the future market, Zhongyu Information believes that the recent trend of international oil prices will continue to benefit the oil market, and as 2022 draws to a close, some merchants with better sales progress may continue to maintain firm policies, but the demand for refined oil is relatively weak. The strong market restrains the downstream undertaking capacity.

　　Jin Lianchuang said that the positive factors in terms of supply and demand will continue to influence the trend of crude oil. In the short term, it may maintain a volatile pattern, and the volatility may widen. The new round of change rate may start slightly positive, and the news is cautious and positive expected.

It is expected that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will still have a certain downward space after the retail price reduction is realized. However, as the negative news is digested and affected by the demand side, the previous pattern of "strong diesel and weak gasoline" may be reversed, and gasoline is relatively more resilient. And there is no shortage of pre-holiday pricing possibilities.

(Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

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(The opinions in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market.)