China News Service, December 19th (China News Finance and Economics Ge Cheng) According to the notice of the National Development and Reform Commission, from 24:00 on December 19th, gasoline will be reduced by 480 yuan per ton, and diesel oil will be reduced by 460 yuan per ton.
This round is the twenty-fourth price adjustment of domestic oil prices in 2022, and it is also the last price adjustment within the year.
Looking back on 2022, the oil price trend will be "ups and downs".
Domestic refined oil prices showed a pattern of "thirteen ups, ten downs and one stranded". After the ups and downs offset each other, the cumulative increase of domestic gasoline was 550 yuan, and the cumulative increase of diesel oil was 530 yuan.
Data map: gas station.
Photo by Ge Cheng, Sino-Singapore Finance and Economics
The agency estimates that this price adjustment is equivalent to a reduction of 0.37 yuan per liter for No. 92 gasoline, 0.39 yuan per liter for No. 95 gasoline, and 0.39 yuan per liter for No. 0 diesel.
After this round of price adjustments, No. 92 gasoline will fully return to the "7 yuan era".
Taking an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, after the price adjustment, the car owner will spend about 18.5 yuan less to fill up a tank of fuel.
In terms of diesel, for a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 160L, it will cost about 62.4 yuan less to fill up a tank of fuel.
"During this round of pricing cycle, the average price of anchored oil species has moved down, and the corresponding comprehensive rate of change of crude oil has moved in a negative range, opening the window for this round of retail price reductions."
Liu Wenjie, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said that although the International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global crude oil demand for this year and next, and the Fed’s interest rate hike in December has also dropped to 50 basis points, European and American central banks have indicated that they will maintain high interest rates next year. Worries about the economy and demand continued, superimposed global stock markets fell one after another, and crude oil prices moved forward under pressure.
The previous price adjustments of domestic refined oil in 2022.
(Data source: National Development and Reform Commission)
Throughout the whole year, in the first half of the year, international oil prices rose rapidly, and domestic oil prices also showed "six consecutive rises" and "four consecutive rises" in the same period.
In June, the international oil price rose to above US$120 per barrel, and the domestic price of No. 95 gasoline also once exceeded the 10 yuan mark.
In the second half of the year, international oil prices entered a downward range, and domestic oil prices staged a wave of "five consecutive declines" from the end of June to the end of August, and ended with a "three consecutive declines" at the end of the year.
The next round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on January 3, 2023.
"Based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a slight upward trend at the beginning, but the upward trend is not stable." Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that at present, OPEC and its cooperation Partners (OPEC+) continue to promote production cuts, Russia may counterattack against the price ceiling, and the Fed’s slowdown in rate hikes has eased economic recession concerns to a certain extent. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustments will increase.
"In the short term, international crude oil will fluctuate mainly in a narrow range, and the rate of change will fluctuate within a limited range, so it is difficult to guide the market in the later stage." According to Wang Yanting, a senior oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, the new round of refined oil price adjustments has a high probability of being stranded .
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