What after the electoral abstention in Tunisia? .. Experts answer

The legislative elections in Tunisia witnessed a turnout described as "poor" by voters, which may weaken the Qais Saied presidential project, which he began to establish since 2021 in front of a divided political opposition that does not enjoy full confidence from Tunisians, according to experts.

And the Independent Electoral Commission announced, on Saturday, that the initial participation rate in the first round of the legislative elections was around 8.8%, and this number has not been recorded since the start of the democratic transition in the country following the 2011 revolution, which overthrew the regime of the late President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.

The electoral campaign, which lasted for 3 weeks, was lackluster and there was no electoral debate, unlike the atmosphere during the previous elections, whether in 2011, 2014 or 2019.

How can these results be interpreted?

Political expert Hamza al-Madib points out that the 1,055 candidates are "unknown and have little political experience," in addition to the fact that women represent only about 12% of the number of candidates.

The new electoral law that Saied approved two months before the elections stipulated that candidates should not reveal their political affiliation, and this resulted in a complete absence of party participation.

The opposition National Salvation Front, which includes Ennahda (the largest party represented in parliament since 2011), called on the Tunisian president to step down immediately following the low turnout in the elections.

And based on the new constitution, which was approved following a popular referendum last July, in which about 70% of the voters did not participate, the new parliament is devoid of the actual powers enjoyed by the parliament that was dissolved by the president.

How will the president react?

Abdel Latif Al-Hanashi, a professor of contemporary history at Tunisian universities, considers that Saeed, who has monopolized power since July 25, 2021, "has carried out a massive campaign alone for the elections through multiple visits in the recent period on the grounds that he has popularity, but the results failed him and did not show that," as he put it. .

Al-Hanashi says, "It is a very big disappointment. He was counting on the will of the people, but it was absent."

Indeed, the appearance of President Qais Saeed in the previous weeks was multiple, by visiting some popular neighborhoods and meeting citizens, as if he was in an electoral campaign "by proxy" for the candidates for the legislative elections.

Tunisia is facing a severe economic crisis, with inflation rising at around 10%. The repercussions of the Russian war on Ukraine have increased the price of basic commodities such as wheat and fuel.

"He showed that he has popular support, but it became clear that there is no constitutional or electoral legitimacy," says political researcher Hammadi al-Radisi.

What is the fate of the invitations to leave?

The National Salvation Front and the Free Constitutional Party called on Saeed to resign and to organize early presidential elections.

But Redissi stresses that there is no mechanism to force the Tunisian president to leave.

Researcher Youssef Al-Sharif also believes that it is difficult for Saeed to resign or admit the failure of these elections.

Al-Sharif says that after the (electronic) national consultation approved by the president at the beginning of the year, in which about 600,000 Tunisians participated, the president refused to admit failure.

The Supreme Elections Commission acknowledged that the results were "modest", pending the second round, which is supposed to take place next March.

What can the opposition do?

The political opposition, led by the Ennahda Party, remains divided because its ideological backgrounds are contradictory. Since the president "monopled" the authorities, it has sought to mobilize the street and has been organizing demonstrations, calling on the "reversed" Saeed to leave.

According to Abd al-Latif al-Hanashi, a professor of contemporary history at Tunisian universities, "the alternative offered by the opposition does not convince Tunisians."

Al-Hanashi considers that the widespread abstention from voting is not necessarily against Qais Said, and believes that Tunisians feel great frustration with the political class.

The only party that has the ability to bring about change in the country is the Tunisian General Labor Union (the largest trade union organization in the country), given that it is the most organized social party, and it had a major role in the 2011 revolution, according to observers.

What is the position of the external powers?

Al-Hanashi says that President Kais Saied promised the external parties a road map, and it has been implemented, according to his opinion.

The US State Department statement after the elections came to support this, and ministry spokesman Ned Price considered that the parliamentary elections in Tunisia are "an essential first step towards restoring the democratic path in the country."

But Price stressed at the same time that the high abstention rate shows the need for more political participation on a broader scale.

The support of foreign partners is crucial for Tunisia, which is heavily indebted and has asked the International Monetary Fund for a fourth loan for 10 years of nearly two billion dollars, which will open the door to other aid, whether from Europe or the Gulf states.