Corona wave hits China: Experts expect a million deaths
Created: 12/20/2022, 12:58 p.m
By: Sven Hauberg
China is facing a gloomy winter - and a gigantic superspreader event: Corona has the country firmly in its grip, but the government is playing down the danger.
Munich/Beijing – Seven dead: This is China's official record since the country surprisingly ended its zero-Covid policy almost two weeks ago and decided to let the virus run free.
The authorities reported the first two deaths on Monday, followed by five more a day later.
These are numbers that hardly anyone in China believes.
A look at social media reveals how dramatic the situation really is: pictures from Beijing's Tongzhou district are being shared, showing hearses queuing in front of a crematorium.
Or videos showing long lines in front of a hospital in Shanghai.
And above all personal stories: from the grandfather who died after being infected, or from people with fever,
In China's big cities, a large part of the population seems to have been infected with the corona virus within a few days.
Some companies report that 90 percent of their employees are sick, and many hospitals are short of staff.
The city of Chongqing even felt compelled to send “slightly symptomatic” state, party and government employees back to work on Monday.
According to reports, people with fever are also dragging themselves into the factories at the Apple supplier Foxconn.
The pathogen has an easy time in a population that has not been able to build up herd immunity and has a relatively low vaccination rate.
In addition, many Chinese have had their last vaccination dose for several months.
Hundreds of thousands, maybe a few million, are currently likely to be infected every day.
There are no reliable figures, China's health authority is currently reporting only a few thousand cases a day.
And everyone knows that can't be true.
Corona in China: Karl Lauterbach sees a “very worrying situation”
It's just the beginning of a wave that's getting bigger and bigger.
"Very worrying situation in China," wrote Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach on Twitter on Tuesday about a tweet by epidemiologist Eric Feigl-Ding.
The US scientist had shared a video of a completely overcrowded hospital room in which several people were being ventilated.
"Deaths likely to be in the millions," predicted Feigl-Ding.
When and where the shock video was recorded cannot be verified, and Feigl-Ding is not undisputed in the USA.
However, other forecasts for China also predict a worrying development.
A model from the University of Hong Kong, for example, expects almost a million deaths in extreme cases.
If China continues with its opening-up policy without taking appropriate countermeasures, 684 people per million people would die, the scientists said.
With a total population of 1.4 billion people, that would mean around 965,000 fatalities.
According to the study, the government can still prevent the worst from happening.
A multi-pronged approach that includes vaccination, antiviral treatment, public health and social measures and a gradual reopening is crucial.
In fact, hospitals are springing up all over the country and new intensive care units are opening.
What is missing is well-trained staff.
The opposite of a “gradual reopening” was announced by the capital Beijing on Monday.
The virus is spreading “rapidly” and putting the health system under pressure, said a city spokesman – and at the same time explained that the corona measures would still be relaxed further.
Bars, fitness studios and karaoke clubs can now open again in Beijing, and holiday trips to the capital have also been permitted.
Will China's Spring Festival become a superspreader event?
After China's cities and provinces outdid each other with tough measures in the three years of the zero-Covid policy, a competition now seems to have broken out as to who will implement the central government's guidelines the fastest and relax the furthest.
China's impatient return to normality is being fueled by state propaganda, which has made an astonishing turnaround after the late November protests.
Just a few months ago, the country's health authorities emphasized that the dangers of the omicron variant should not be downplayed. Today, government adviser Zhong Nanshan explains that Covid-19 should simply be called the "corona cold".
Irrational scaremongering has given way to dangerous trivialization.
also read
Former secretary in the Stutthof concentration camp sentenced to probation
READ
If you see wire on the door, stay away from your car
READ
Aircraft with hundreds of passengers in severe turbulence - video shows trail of destruction
READ
Italian village with castle and palace is for sale for two million euros
READ
Towel scandal at the pool: Hotel employees take hold of reserved loungers
READ
Fancy a voyage of discovery?
My space
At the end of January it could become clear what a bitter bill China has to pay for its haphazard opening policy.
Then the most populous country on earth celebrates its most important holiday, the Spring Festival.
In the middle of winter, it should be a superspreader event: before the pandemic began, around 400 million people made their way to their families and friends every year to celebrate together.
Many return from the cities to the country, to their parents or grandparents and thus to the most vulnerable parts of the population and to regions with a poorly developed health system.
In Shanghai, a patient is admitted to a fever clinic.
© Hector Retamal/AFP
The government wants to prevent the worst with a vaccination campaign.
Only around 40 percent of people over 80 in China are currently vaccinated three times, and a nationwide campaign has recently been launched to promote the fourth shot.
But many Chinese are very skeptical about Made-in-China vaccines.
And anyway: why should you get vaccinated now of all times when the state assures you that the virus is no more dangerous than flu?
