Jordan is hosting a meeting on Tuesday, December 20, bringing together France and the main players in the Middle East, including Iran and Saudi Arabia at loggerheads, to try to defuse the worsening crises in the region through dialogue.
The “Baghdad II” conference is being held on the shores of the Dead Sea, after a first edition in the Iraqi capital in August 2021 at the initiative of Emmanuel Macron and Iraq.
“
The purpose of such a meeting is to bring neighbors and Iraq's partners around the table to try to move forward by promoting dialogue
,” according to the French presidency.
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A risky bet in a still unstable region.
Iran is bloodily suppressing a wave of popular demonstrations, Iraq has just reached a fragile compromise after a year of political crisis, Syria remains a site of confrontation between powers and Lebanon is without a president, to name a few. some of the regional crises.
According to the Elysée, the meeting aims to "
provide support for the stability, security, prosperity of Iraq and deal with the whole of the region since Iraq is a pivotal country
".
"
This summit has great ambitions but no one expects miracles
," says Riad Kahwaji, director of the Near East and Gulf Institute for Military Analysis (Inegma).
He explains that France plays a crucial role, "
keeping the thread of the dialogue on behalf of Westerners with Iran, especially since the Vienna nuclear negotiations are currently in difficulty
".
Josep Borrell, the European Union's foreign minister who is coordinating the Iranian nuclear talks, will be in Jordan, as will Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.
The latter considered that this summit would be “
a good opportunity
” for Iran “
to finalize
” the nuclear negotiations.
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For Riad Kahwaji, an analyst based in Dubai, it will be necessary to see "
what is the disposition of Tehran, which plays a central role in the crises of the region, from Iraq to Syria via Lebanon and Yemen, to do compromises
”.
Iran has accused its regional rival, Saudi Arabia, with which diplomatic relations have been severed since 2016, of encouraging the unprecedented protest movement in the country.
"
We are ready to return to normal relations and reopen embassies when the Saudi side is ready
," Iran's foreign minister said on Monday.
Iran's involvement in the Ukrainian conflict through the supply of drones to Russia further complicates the situation, according to Riad Kahwaji.
Test for Iraq
The conference will be a test for the new Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohamed Chia al-Soudani, appointed after more than a year of political deadlock and considered closer to Iran than his predecessor.
“
Prime Minister Soudani is co-organizing this conference with us.
So there is a desire for continuity on his part which is to be noted
, ”underlines the French presidency.
Hamzeh Hadad, guest researcher at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR), believes that "
the first summit was intended to show that Prime Minister Moustafa al-Kazimi could bring together the leaders of the region, in particular the Gulf countries, in Baghdad
.
During this second edition in Jordan, "
Prime Minister Soudani will also aim to show that he can maintain these relations
", he adds.
"
However, I believe that this time Iraqis and non-Iraqis would like to see the meeting lead to a more serious program
," said the researcher.
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The meeting is to address common issues, such as global warming and food security, as well as regional energy cooperation.
Emmanuel Macron, who traveled to the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle off Egypt on Monday for the traditional Christmas party with French troops, will also meet with the King of Jordan, Abdallah II, "
ally in the fight against terrorism
", according to Paris.
The Jordanian army has announced that it will deploy in force from Amman airport to the Dead Sea conference center, about 50 km west of the capital, where the meeting is being held .
