President Biden's statement (from last month) that the nuclear deal with Iran is dead is an inaccurate description of reality.
If we try to be precise in his statement, the nuclear agreement can be called "walking dead".
The agreement still exists because even after the US has left it, the European countries are still signatories to it. This means that even if from the point of view of the US, which has recently hardened its positions, the agreement is dead - Europe is still signatory to it.
Therefore, Iran will benefit from all its advantages, when additional restrictions will be removed from it, according to the agreement, starting in 2025.
Biden was recorded saying: "The nuclear deal is dead"
The Iranian regime is the biggest beneficiary of the nuclear deal becoming a walking dead.
The reason for this is that Iran continues to accumulate capabilities in the field of enrichment and is about to soon become a nuclear threshold state.
The Americans have hardened positions because the regime is not ready to compromise on the "open cases" issue.
This refers to the requirement of the International Atomic Energy Agency to investigate sites where uranium remains were found and were not reported.
Furthermore, Iran has become an essential part of the "axis of evil" due to its active assistance to the Russian war machine in Ukraine.
The continued violent suppression of the broad protest in its streets also does not strengthen the desire of the Americans to return to the talks.
Contrary to the American trend, the Europeans emphasized during the last few days the importance of returning to the agreement.
impossible demands.
Khamenei,
Iran's leap forward in the nuclear program in recent months no longer allows a return to the original agreement, a move I supported in the past and which was right at the time.
It was right to return to the agreement at the time considering the lesser evil, but the reality changed dramatically.
The preferred option is to kill the agreement completely.
The current interim situation works solely in Iran's favor.
It is both gaining nuclear capabilities and not paying the price.
Immediately after the cancellation of the agreement, and simultaneously with the preparation of the military options, the US and the powers must act to put a better, longer and stronger agreement on the table. This is still the preferred option to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb.
"The agreement is dead."
Biden, photo: AFP
So why doesn't it actually happen?
Since the US has already withdrawn from the agreement - the only option to finally bury it depends on the European countries. One of the European powers must announce that it has information that Iran is violating the agreement. This is not a problem because there is almost no clause in the agreement that Iran is not violating (in enrichment, in research and development, in advanced centrifuges, and more.) It's just a matter of will. In this context, it's worth noting that until Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, Iran carefully fulfilled every clause in it.
Stop wasting time
As soon as one of the European countries declares those violations, it will lead to the final burial of the agreement.
This means the immediate imposition of Security Council sanctions on Iran without the veto power of China and Russia.
This has not happened so far, partly because of the differences in approaches between the US and Europe.
A nuclear facility in Iran, photo: AFP
What should Israel do now?
First, recognize that inaction is the worst of all worlds.
The continuation of time will bring us to a nuclear and more dangerous Iran after the restrictions that exist today will also be removed starting in 2025.
Second, Israeli action to cancel the nuclear agreement before the "sunset" clause, which refers to the lifting of restrictions on Iran, comes into force in 2025.
That is, a broad international campaign, since Israel needs Europeans.
We should not forget this in relation to other fronts.
Third, preparing a credible military option.
For this purpose, the American backing and the continued accumulation of capabilities of the IDF are required. That is why cooperation with the Biden administration is critical. In light of the reports of certain concerns in the administration, a great deal depends on Netanyahu's designated BRAM, on which hopes are pinned in Washington.
Fourth, should we come to military action as a very last option, we must prepare for a broad regional campaign, which will also include Hezbollah.
Although such a campaign is not certain - one must prepare for the worst scenario.
The author is the director of the Institute for National Security Studies INSS, former head of AMN
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