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“Even if Xi Jinping holds China with a masterful hand, the situation may degenerate”

2022-12-21T10:48:03.219Z


INTERVIEW – After major protests, Beijing has lifted most of the health restrictions in place. For researcher Hugues Eudeline, despite this relaxation, the country's complicated economic situation could push Chinese urbanites to take to the streets again.


Hugues Eudeline is an associate researcher at the Thomas More Institute.

A former naval officer, Doctor in military history, defense and security from the Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes (EPHE, Paris) and certified in French and American higher military education, he devotes his research to the geopolitics and geostrategy of the world ocean.

LE FIGARO.

- After three years of an extremely severe health strategy, called zero-Covid, China has largely relaxed its measures since the beginning of December.

Is it more due to the historical mobilization against Beijing's policy than to the country's economic situation?

Hugues EUDELINE.

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The mobilization against the political system is due to the economic situation of the country, so the two are really linked.

The latest economic news is particularly bad.

China's exports and imports have contracted at a much greater rate than in previous years, external demand is falling, we can also note the worsening of the Covid crisis and everything related to it.

There is also a problem with exports, which is particularly serious because the fall occurred in the middle of the Christmas period, therefore the time when export activity works best.

China is experiencing a major economic slowdown.

This country is based on a consensus, the power allows the Chinese to earn money in a capitalistic way, provided that they do not do politics and do not touch the Communist Party.

But there, the social movements openly criticize the party.

The economic problem is essential because it remains the great success of the Chinese Communist Party, since Deng Xiaoping until today, but this phenomenal growth currently seems to be decreasing, since there should be a growth of the order of 3% , which is very low for China.

For Beijing, does political risk take precedence over health risk?

China has always been a country that has experienced extremely harsh revolts in its history.

However, the thinking of the Chinese is always part of the long term.

They look at history because, if it does not predict the future, it illuminates it abundantly.

So the leaders know very well that once the revolts are triggered, they can become very important and hinder, even bring down power.

Read also“The anti-sanitary restrictions demonstrations in China risk, paradoxically, to strengthen Xi Jinping”

By giving in to the streets, is the Chinese regime opening a Pandora's box?

Can we expect more social movements against the regime in the coming years?

The risk is nevertheless limited that these movements multiply in China.

The population control system is very sophisticated, very efficient, so I think they won't let anything go wrong.

However, it is clear that the population and in particular young graduates are very unhappy, because they are really having a hard time finding work at the moment, due to the slowdown in the economy.

And the economy as people work less, it weakens the economy even more.

It's a vicious circle.

XI Jinping had promised in 2020 to lift the whole country out of poverty, and he clearly did not keep his promise.

Hugues Eudeline

As to whether this is dangerous for the leaders, consider that the president has never had as much power as he does now.

He holds the reins of the country with a firm hand, and I find it hard to see how things could be moved in the face of such a capacity for internal power.

The situation would really have to become much more serious.

You quote young graduates, is it young people who suffer the most from the economic situation of the country?

Probably yes, although all workers are suffering from the closure of businesses and the economic recession.

There is no social security there, so even if we provide food for people who are stuck at home, we can understand that they are not particularly happy with the situation.

But it is the young people who are, as always, the most quick to react and in violent ways.

Did the social heterogeneity of the demonstrations, which mix young graduates and factory workers, inhabitants of cities and the countryside, contribute to worrying the Chinese power?

I don't think there's a lot of risk in the countryside, because there are fewer populations than in the big cities.

However, the number of cities with more than one million inhabitants being very important in China, many homes could be won by social movements.

I don't think we can speak of revolt, rather of discontent.

But this can degenerate, we must not forget that President XI Jinping promised in 2020 to lift the whole country out of poverty, and he clearly did not keep his promise.

And the Chinese know that the measures that have been taken against the epidemic in the rest of the world have not been as drastic as in their country, and that most countries are now operating at full capacity, which is not the case of theirs.

In China, some denounce a political sleight of hand by a regime changing course abruptly, without assuming its responsibilities.

Do you share this observation?

Chinese regimes have often changed course and without ever explaining it, when you have the power for yourself, you have no problem changing direction freely.

For the moment, it is only reacting to a problem of internal politics, and it can do so with a lot of violence, as we have seen in a number of provinces.

What I personally fear is that the crisis will not develop a little more, and that in order to divert attention from internal problems and to continue the line of the presidential speech of October 16 at the XX Congress, the authority will not decide to use force against Taiwan.

The risk is that they decide to privilege external nationalist operations to make forget the internal problems.

Of course, this is not very obvious.

The president spoke again about Taiwan during his speech, but the example of Russia in Ukraine probably encourages Chinese strategists to be more cautious.

It all depends on the level of dissatisfaction of the population, and in particular of young graduates, about 50% of whom can no longer find employment.

Source: lefigaro

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