Expert warns: "It would be a disaster if China and America clashed militarily"
Created: 12/21/2022, 4:57 p.m
By: Ning Wang
China expert Kerry Brown fears a conflict between Beijing and Washington.
In the interview, he also draws an explosive comparison between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
Well-known British sinologist Kerry Brown worries about an increasingly hostile attitude towards China in western countries.
Because in return, the rejection of the West is increased there.
A vicious circle: China's population now has a negative image of the USA and the EU.
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Kerry Brown, this year seems to be all about Xi Jinping's rise to power. He has secured a third term. Has Xi contributed to the negative image of China that currently prevails in the West?
One gets the impression that his leadership doesn't have a clear plan for the economy, which is undoubtedly under pressure at the moment.
It is a very political leadership made up of new politicians who were just elected to office in October and whose portfolios are more political than economic.
Of course, Xi's leadership is in part a response to the domestic challenges facing China.
But it is also an admission that the outside world is quite hostile towards China.
This has put the leadership around Xi on the defensive.
Expect surprises in Xi's third term?
Most of the things that have surprised me so far have been more negative than positive.
It would be nice if we were surprised by things that we didn't already expect.
Political reforms are not on the agenda, but it was gratifying that Xi appeared to step up speaking with other leaders at the G20 summit in November this year, emphasizing partnership and dialogue.
But I believe the Xi leadership will do whatever it takes to maintain stability and ensure the great revitalization of the Chinese nation succeeds.
Kerry Brown
Kerry Brown is Professor of China Studies and Director of the Lau China Institute at King's College London.
He is an Associate Fellow of the Asia Pacific Program at Chatham House.
Brown is the author of 24 books.
The two most recent works are China Through European Eyes (with Chenger Gemma Deng) and Xi: A Study of Power.
China Expert Brown: Is Xi Jinping Faring Like Vladimir Putin?
Are disaffected Chinese citizens turning to the West?
For these people, the image of the outside world in their own media is not particularly positive.
They see the very obvious divisions, conflicts and problems in the US, in Europe and elsewhere, and that probably gives them food for thought.
Does going abroad really give the impression of an attractive alternative?
There is also the question of who will be Xi's successor.
He will be 70 next year and cannot go on forever.
But at the moment there seems to be no successor in sight.
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Are we already seeing the worst effects of Xi's leadership?
In my opinion, nothing good can come of an autocratic leader staying in power for more than 10-15 years in the 21st century.
After 15 years, Mao Zedong became increasingly moody and made bad decisions like supporting the Cultural Revolution.
With Stalin, that became apparent after 10 to 15 years, and after 20 years, Putin, too, made increasingly poor decisions.
After a little over 15 to 20 years, things just get worse and worse.
I worry that if China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, gets into this situation and fails to change course, it will become a huge problem for China and the rest of the world.
How do Europeans see China today, and how is this image influenced by the US?
They have a very complicated view of China: as a partner, competitor, and as a systemic rival.
The European Commission used this wording in a 2019 statement on China.
I think most Europeans don't like many things about China, but there are also many areas where they recognize the need to work with China.
You are quite pragmatic.
They must also align their relations with China with those with the US.
America has a lot of influence in Europe and still exerts pressure.
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A screen in Beijing shows footage of the military maneuvers China launched after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan.
© Noel Celis/afp
How can Europe deal with China in this complicated situation?
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to China in October showed how it's done.
While he drew criticism, he also achieved a political outcome, with China condemning Russia's potential use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
But we have to think carefully about every delegation that Europe sends to China - what do we want to achieve with them?
We desperately need some diplomatic successes.
Despite this, China will continue to be a challenge for Europe.
Europeans must strike a balance with themselves, with China and with other international partners like America.
How likely do you think there is a system conflict?
The most important thing right now is to find a pragmatic framework for action that allows the world to address key issues such as climate change, pandemics, inequality and sustainability, while acknowledging that in policy terms there are major differences between China and Europe and will continue to be so in the future will give.
Nonetheless, it would be a historic tragedy - a catastrophe - if China and America clashed militarily or otherwise simply because of differing political systems and values.
We must not forget that, despite significant differences on crucial challenges such as climate change and its causes, we agree on many points.
At least that gives hope that we can solve these problems one day.
This article appeared on December 19, 2022 in the China.Table Professional Briefing newsletter - as part of a cooperation, it is now also available to the readers of the IPPEN.MEDIA portals.
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