"Lantau Tomorrow" Kau Yi Chau three islands plan released, the cost increased by 16% to 580 billion yuan, and the land sales revenue was reduced by 35% to 750 billion yuan. Tian Beichen, a member of the Legislative Council of the Real Politics Roundtable, said frankly that the construction cost "will only be more, not less ", thinking that the income and expenditure will only be "tightened".
Chen Jianqing, a local research agency, believes that the current construction cost is underestimated. In addition to the 20-year project period variable and inflation, the difficulty of the project has not been taken into account. The artificial island project is twice as deep as the previous reclamation project. There are already group estimates The construction cost will reach 800 billion yuan.
Liu Guoxun, a member of the Legislative Council of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment of the United Nations, pointed out that in the current economic environment, it is believed that issuing bonds is not a suitable financing solution, and the "build-operate-transfer model" may reduce the government's dominance in future road traffic charges. It is recommended to consider " railway plus property” and “public-private reclamation cooperation”.
Liu Guoxun said that it is not feasible to issue bonds: no one buys low interest rates and the burden of high interest rates is heavy
Liu Guoxun believes that the government's estimates are pragmatic and conservative, and as the gap between costs and benefits narrows, it is necessary to carefully balance changes in materials and engineering costs. In addition, large-scale projects such as the northern metropolitan area will be launched at the same time, and the government should make long-term forecasts and estimates as early as possible.
He said that taking Tung Chung reclamation as an example with a water depth of 4 meters, this time the water depth is 8 meters, and the difficulty of the project has increased. However, as far as he knows, the latest valuation has taken into account relevant factors, and he believes that the cost can be controlled.
The government proposed four financing options for the project. Liu Guoxun pointed out that in the current economic environment, if you choose to issue bonds, if the interest rate is low, it will not attract people to buy; if it is as high as 8 or 9%, it will make the government The financial burden is heavy.
He also mentioned that the Tai Lam and Hung Hom Tunnels were built using the "build-operate-transfer model".
He suggested adopting a public-private partnership reclamation financing scheme, in which private developers would reclaim the sea and receive part of the land in return, just like the model of Shatin City One reclamation in the 1970s.
Tian Beichen expects to increase the cost of railway alignment further to $610 billion
The artificial island involves a number of transportation infrastructures. Among them, the starting point of the cross-sea railway line was changed from the Tuen Mun River Pier to the Hung Shui Bridge to connect the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Western Railway. Tian Beichen described the government as "day and night thinking about the Northern Metropolis...but the Northern Metropolis is ten plans Not a single stroke."
According to the new alignment, the railway will eventually mainly serve the population of the northern metropolis and cross-border passengers, leaving Tuen Mun with a population of 500,000 people and failing to make the best use of it.
He said that he is confident that the final plan will increase the wiring, but the cost "is not related to that number", and it is estimated that it will be further pushed up to 610 billion yuan.
Chen Jianqing from the Local Research Institute.
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Chen Jianqing questioned the serious underestimation of the construction cost and only counted the Kau Yi Chau artificial island
Chen Jianqing pointed out that the current construction cost is adjusted according to the estimate four years ago, without taking into account the inflation in the future construction period. In addition, the reclamation is twice as deep as the previous project, and he believes that the construction cost may be seriously underestimated.
Moreover, the new project will no longer use the "Lantau Tomorrow" of the previous administration, and only the artificial island of Kau Yi Chau will be counted in the construction cost. Excluding the construction of railway facilities in Sunny Bay, the construction cost will be reduced directly. flattened".
Moreover, the project period is long, with high instability and great variables, including the demand for future land, because Hong Kong's population will reach its peak in 2041.
Lantau Tomorrow｜The starting point of the cross-sea railway will be changed to Hung Shui Bridge instead of Tuen Mun. Nan Tian Beichen said he would oppose the new plan of Lantau Tomorrow｜Tian Beichen: The old line of the Tuen Mun cross-sea railway is more environmentally friendly. There is no plan for Lantau Tomorrow｜Democracy United supports the land reclamation plan and promotes "HoS long-term uncompleted flats" to help citizens buy homes in Lantau tomorrow｜The cost of land reclamation will increase to 580 billion Without taking into account the value of public housing, the development blueprint of Lantau will be exposed tomorrow, and plans to issue bonds to finance artificial island land sales proceeds of 750 billion
