Jean-Baptiste Noé is a doctor in economic history and editor-in-chief of the journal Conflits. He has just published:
The decline of a world: geopolitics of clashes and rivalries in 2023.
(2022, ed. de l'Artilleur, 288p., 22€.).
LE FIGARO. - For his first visit abroad since the war, Zelensky will be received this Wednesday in Washington. How to read this displacement? Is it purely symbolic?
Jean-Baptiste NOÉ. -
What is interesting in the first place is that Zelensky can move abroad.
It means that he feels quite safe vis-à-vis the Russians and towards his own government, he does not fear being overthrown, or people taking advantage of his absence, as happened to Gorbachev.
This trip is therefore a sign of great confidence and that things are going relatively well.
The second important element is the choice of country, he is not going to Europe, he is not going to Brussels, Paris, or London, but to the United States.
This highlights several things.
This trip shows a relationship, in a way, of subjection between Ukraine and Washington, like a vassal who goes to his lord.
It also highlights the weight of the United States and reminds us that Europe does not really count in the American vision.
Finally, this first visit shows that we are in a war between the United States and Russia via Ukraine as an intermediary.
The US president is to announce “significant” new aid to Ukraine, which will include, according to a senior US official, a battery of Patriot missiles, that is to say advanced anti-aircraft defense equipment. Can this new aid have real consequences on the outcome of the conflict?
So it's a continuation of the support that has already been provided by the United States.
This aid is intended in particular to counter the Russian missiles which are doing a lot of damage both against the cities and against Ukrainian infrastructure.
Zelensky therefore particularly needed it.
However, it will take some time before the equipment is operational, because the Ukrainians must first be trained by the Americans.
A year and a half ago, after their failure in Afghanistan, the United States was announced to be almost dead internationally.
While there they return and once again make rain and shine in international relations.
Jean-Baptiste Noé
This measure is also a message sent to the United States itself.
Indeed, during the midterms campaign, several Democrats expressed the desire to limit aid to Ukraine.
It was one of the central debates.
But Joe Biden won the midterms, or rather lost less than we thought.
This action therefore shows that he is regaining control over these Democrats.
And it is also a message to the Republicans, who are now in the majority in the House of Representatives, and who will have to vote for or against this support when the new Congress is put in place.
There will then be a real debate on the international question between the rather interventionist Democrats and the rather isolationist Republicans.
This aid is also an issue of domestic policy.
Does the economic war that seems to undermine the Western economic system force the United States to intervene? Are the Americans more concerned than is said by this conflict?
It must be considered that the United States has been a stakeholder in the conflict from the start, from 2014, although it is now intervening in an increasingly open manner.
But what is interesting for them is that a year and a half ago, after their failure in Afghanistan, they were announced as almost dead, as having experienced a very great defeat.
While there they are coming back, they are once again making rain and shine in international relations, and Afghanistan has been forgotten.
It is therefore a very nice diplomatic and geopolitical blow for Joe Biden, it clears up the affront suffered before.
They have not abandoned Ukraine, which has always been an ally, and when they say that they will not abandon Taiwan, we can believe them.
Jean-Baptiste Noé
Regarding the economic question, the difficulties are not linked to the war in Ukraine, although it has accentuated them.
On the other hand, the advantage of this intervention for the Americans is that even if it costs them money, which they will drown anyway in inflation, it will cost them absolutely no human life.
It is therefore a very skilful way of waging war and having success, without having any deaths to deplore.
The war they lead is almost the ideal war, they win every time because they are sure of having no losses that would harm public opinion.
And precisely, if there is still no real American intervention in Ukraine, is it also to signify to Xi Jinping that their armed forces are fully mobilizable in the event of an attack on Taiwan?
It can be noted that what the Americans are doing in Ukraine is probably what they would do in the event of an attack on Taiwan.
That is to say that there would probably be indirect support at first, by sending arms, training... This aid to Ukraine is therefore a message to China, for their say "look at what we will do if you attack Taiwan".
And it is also a way of showing them that the United States does not abandon its allies.
They have not abandoned Ukraine, which they have always supported, and when they say that they will not abandon Taiwan, we can believe them.
This war is therefore both a conflict against Russia and a message to China.
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Can we consider that this meeting between kyiv and Washington is a response to Xi Jinping's visit to former Russian President Medvedev, and to the ties that continue to be forged between China and Russia?
We can indeed see very well the axis that is being put in place, there is on one side Ukraine/United States, and on the other China/Russia.
However, it should be noted that the relationship between China and Russia is much more complex than between kyiv and Washington, China is not an unwavering support.
Obviously, Xi Jinping is coming to show his support for Russia through this visit, although this support is quite light, but we will never know the nature of the exchanges, and perhaps he will take the opportunity to tell Russia to put an end to the conflict.
The Chinese, on the other hand, have every interest in seeing the Russo-Ukrainian war end fairly quickly. The challenge of this interview will perhaps also be to find ground for negotiation.