"Game changer" in the Ukraine war: experts are skeptical about the Patriot delivery

Created: 12/22/2022, 2:37 p.m

By: Felix Durach

Ukraine will receive a Patriot air defense system from the US for the first time.

Moscow speaks of a further escalation.

But what effects does the weapon system really have on the war?

WASHINGTON DC – President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has left the embattled country for a foreign trip for the first time since the Ukraine war began in February.

The 44-year-old traveled to Washington DC to meet with US President Joe Biden.

The United States has been one of Ukraine's biggest supporters since the beginning of the war.

Most recently, the US government also announced the deployment of a Patriot anti-aircraft system to Ukraine.

The modern weapons system is intended to further support Kyiv in defending against Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure.

But how will this affect the course of the war?

War in Ukraine: Further reinforcement of air defenses – Ukraine receives Patriot system

The delivery of Patriot systems is nothing new in the NATO support. In the past few months, the NATO partners had already delivered various weapon systems to strengthen Ukraine's air defenses.

Among other things, Germany delivered the Gepard anti-aircraft vehicle and the Iris-T air defense system to Ukraine.

Despite the supplies, however, the massive Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's energy supply show that the current defenses are only partially sufficient to protect the metropolises.

Patriot is supposed to remedy this.

A launcher of the Patriot air defense system during a NATO exercise in Norway (archive photo).

© JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP

The Patriot air defense system is also a defensive weapon system.

In contrast to the weapons delivered so far, however, it has a longer range.

As the Bundeswehr informs on its official website, the Patriot system has a range of up to 68 kilometers and can control up to 50 airborne targets simultaneously.

In contrast to the existing defensive weapons, Patriot is also better at combating missiles that move very quickly or are launched from great heights.

After delivery, the weapon system should thus help to close any gaps in the Ukrainian air defense system.

Meanwhile, the FDP continues to demand the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, writes

.

Patriot anti-aircraft system

The Patriot anti-aircraft missile system has been around since the early 1980s.

It has been in service with the Bundeswehr since 1989.

The weapon system from the US manufacturer Raytheon is used to combat larger airborne targets such as aircraft, drones, missiles and cruise missiles.

The ground-based Patriot system is mobile, the launch pads can be mounted on trucks.

A Patriot battery can track up to 50 targets and engage five objects at once.

According to the Bundeswehr, the range is around 68 kilometers.

The name "Patriot is the abbreviation for the English term 'Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target'", in German: "Phased Tracking Radar to Intercept Target Objects".

Source: AFP

Patriot deliveries: Help for Ukraine - but probably only in the spring

"Of course, this helps the Ukrainians considerably to protect the critical infrastructure and thus also the people," explained ex-Bundeswehr General Hans-Lothar Domröse to the

with a view to the upcoming delivery.

But it is also true that Ukraine will probably not be able to profit from the systems in the short term.

As the

reports with reference to US officials, delivery is not expected until spring 2023.

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In addition, a Ukrainian crew must first be trained on the system.

The training is to take place in a third country – such as Germany – and will also take time.

"It will take some time," confirmed US President Biden at the joint press conference with Zelenskyy.

In addition, the US's most recent support package includes only an eight-launcher Patriot battery.

While the system will significantly improve air defenses, the improvement is limited to only one area in contested Ukraine.

Russia speaks of renewed provocation by Patriot delivery - Ex-General sees diversionary maneuvers

Nevertheless, with the delivery of the air defense system, Kyiv will receive what is probably the most modern weapon system that has ever been delivered to the war zone.

Of course, this also happens to the displeasure of the Kremlin.

Even as rumors of a delivery were circulating, Moscow warned of a further escalation of the conflict and accused Washington of waging a proxy war in Ukraine.

However, ex-General Domröse sees the Russian allegations as a diversionary tactic.

"We're just helping the Ukrainians fight back.

For me, this is not an escalation, but nothing more than the obligation to observe the principle of Responsibility to Protect (RtoP). another attempt by Russia to break further supports of Ukraine.

One thing is clear: Ukraine will not be able to bring about another turning point in the war against Russia with only air defense.

Will the Patriot system turn the tide in the Ukraine war?

Again "no game changer"

“It's still a defensive system.

It doesn't offer any new offensive capabilities to engage targets deep in Russia or Crimea.

In that sense, it's not a game changer," Oleksiy Melnyk, of Ukraine's Razumkov Center think tank, told the

.

One such "game changer" would be the delivery of modern offensive weapons.

For months, the Ukrainian government has been demanding the provision of western main battle tanks, such as the German Leopard 2. The federal government has so far refused to go it alone with the delivery and referred to NATO.

Domröse also

came to a similar conclusion in an interview with the

"To turn the war around, Ukraine would need the most modern attack systems," said the ex-general.

But even if NATO decides to supply main battle tanks, it could be months before the weapons actually arrive in Ukraine.

Time that Ukraine probably doesn't have in view of the threatening winter offensive by the Russian armed forces.