Global trends, Iran and the Palestinian arena - this is the triangle that stands at the focus of the annual intelligence assessment of the IDF Intelligence Division, which was compiled in recent weeks and will soon be presented to the political level.
The annual assessment presents a broad spectrum of challenges expected for Israel in 2023, along with opportunities as well.
Unlike before, Iran does not attract the main attention: it is perhaps the most significant and complex challenge, but AMN sees it as part of a much wider puzzle, the parts of which are partly connected and influence each other.
The threats, challenges and opportunities expected for Israel in 2023, photo: Reuters, Getty Images, AFP
According to AMAN's assessment, at one vertex of the triangle will continue to be the global trends that affect Israel and its security. Global instability, which mainly stems from the struggle between the United States and China, is expected to continue and perhaps even worsen. AMAN points out that the war in Ukraine has accelerated this trend , mainly in its effects on Europe whose security has been undermined, without cheap gas from Russia and without supply chains from China (due to canceled contracts).
Failed countries around us
Aman also points to the changes within the United States as an issue that requires concern and thought on the part of Israel, in order to preserve the special relations with it. Although these changes (primarily demographic, whose political impact is clear) do not yet have an effect on the relations between Israel and the United States - certainly not in the security field -Operational intelligence that is thriving more than ever - but they require constant engagement, so that Israel is not strategically harmed by them.
Iranian nuclear facility exposed by hackers
These global trends also have effects on the Middle East.
Egypt and Jordan, for example, are suffering from an unprecedented economic and nutritional crisis - a result of the war in Ukraine and the spike in grain prices.
Egypt has already received $3 billion in aid from Qatar this year (and is expected to ask Qatar for additional aid) and relies, among other things, on grain that Saudi Arabia purchases for it.
AMN believes that this crisis - which is added to Lebanon's transformation into a failed state - may have far-reaching implications for the region, and that Israel should act as much as it can to help Egypt and Jordan, for example with water desalination and solar field projects that will help solve the acute water and energy crisis in Jordan. and reduce the danger to the stability of the regime there.
The internal changes in the US may harm Israel, photo: AP
At the second apex of the triangle of challenges expected for Israel in the coming year is Iran.
This is not only in the nuclear field, which is naturally the main challenge, but in a broader view of Iran as a player that is "on the whole field".
Recently, for example, an increasing involvement of Iran has been identified in Israel in an attempt to encourage acts of terrorism in the Yash, with the aim of heating up the area. This requires the Shin Bet to increase its involvement in the Iranian issue, including the establishment of new joint work teams with the Mossad and the AMN.
Iranian involvement is expected to continue on the other fronts as well.
In Gaza, Iran is the sole financier of the Islamic Jihad and the main financier of Hamas.
In the northern arena, Amn estimates that Iran understands that it has failed in its efforts to establish itself in Syria, but it will continue to work to arm Hezbollah - mainly with precision weapons, but also by intensifying the trend of arming with cruise missiles and armed and precise UAVs, such as those sold to Russia for the benefit of its war in Ukraine.
Aman estimates that even in 2023, Hezbollah will continue to be preoccupied mainly with internal Lebanese issues, and will be deterred from war. However, a dynamic of escalation may arise between the parties as a result of various moves, and even tactical activity on the ground. The crisis on the eve of the signing of the economic water agreement had such a potential : Hassan Nasrallah prepared for escalation, although he was happy that it was avoided when the agreement was signed.
Hezbollah men in the parade // Archive photo: AP,
The global trends will have far-reaching effects in this context as well, because the cooperation between Russia and Iran in the war in Ukraine may also affect the northern front and even the nuclear agreement.
In the meantime, this is not happening - most of the agreements between Moscow and Tehran are civil-economic, and Russia also made sure to pay for the UAVs in cash in order to maintain only a limited commitment vis-à-vis Tehran - but Israel must continue to act vis-à-vis Moscow to make sure that this situation will be maintained in the future as well.
In the nuclear context, AMN estimates that Iran will continue on the current path of slow progress, but without breaking the bank. This will happen both in the uranium enrichment path - while continuing to transfer the activity to the safe facility in Purdue - and in the path of the weapons group, where Iran is making all the necessary preparations For the moment when the supreme leader gives the order to act for the production of nuclear weapons.
The era after Abu Mazen
The AMN estimates that Iran will only change its policy if extreme measures are taken against it, and then it may even enrich uranium to a military level of 90 percent. Israel needs to prepare for this in terms of political and military methods of action, so as not to find itself surprised. Here too, for global trends - And especially the war in Ukraine - has far-reaching consequences, for two main reasons: first, that the world has in recent months "got used to" the discourse on nuclear weapons and their use. The second, that the Ukrainian lesson is that countries must not give up nuclear weapons, and a country that possesses such weapons feels that it is not can lose the war.
The reactor in shame // Photo: AFP
The third side that AMAN's assessment for 2023 points to as significant is the Palestinian arena. Unlike in the past, AMAN does not this time look at Gaza and Yosh as separate arenas, but as one piece. The main concern is the day after Abu Mazen, and in the direction to whom the Palestinian Authority will then turn. Hamas in Gaza is a major player in this event, because since Operation "Guardian of the Walls" it has been trying to present itself as a real governmental address and not just as a terrorist organization. The same is true of its leader, Yahya Sinwar, who has recently been trying to build himself an image of a statesman , and not just of a warrior.
The AMN estimates that against this background, combined with other reasons, the trend of security instability of the past few months is expected to continue. Iran, as mentioned, is encouraging this, but so are Hamas and other terrorist organizations, and alongside this there is a renewed increase in individual attacks, as well as organized Local groups such as the "Lion's Den" in Nablus, which are gaining a lot of momentum mainly on social networks, and themselves are challenging the traditional terrorist organizations and the Palestinian Authority itself.
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