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Russia's major offensive in the Ukraine war: the German government expects the war to turn around in April

2022-12-25T04:01:20.149Z


Russia's major offensive in the Ukraine war: the German government expects the war to turn around in April Created: 2022-12-25 04:47 By: Felix Busjaeger Moscow and Minsk are conducting joint military exercises in Belarus. Observers fear a possible renewed attack on northern Ukraine by Russia. © Uncredited/imago How does the Ukraine war end? So far the outcome is completely open. However, the G


Russia's major offensive in the Ukraine war: the German government expects the war to turn around in April

Created: 2022-12-25 04:47

By: Felix Busjaeger

Moscow and Minsk are conducting joint military exercises in Belarus.

Observers fear a possible renewed attack on northern Ukraine by Russia.

© Uncredited/imago

How does the Ukraine war end?

So far the outcome is completely open.

However, the German government expects a Russian counter-offensive.

Berlin/Moscow – The winter in Ukraine slowed down the war.

Most recently, President Volodymyr Zelensky's troops had steadily pushed back the Russian aggressors - supported by Western weapons technology, which was made available to the defenders by Germany and the USA, among others.

It is still uncertain when the Ukraine war will end.

A new paper by the German government, reported by the

Neue Zürcher Zeitung

, now suggests that a major Russian offensive could possibly be imminent in the coming year.

According to an analysis, the Ministry of Defense expects an offensive in April 2023, as reported by kreiszeitung.de.

War in Ukraine: Germany expects Russian offensive in April 2023

War has been raging in Ukraine since February 2022.

Since then, there have been numerous deaths and injuries on both sides.

Already in the first months of the war, a large movement of refugees developed: people fled their devastated homes and sought protection from the conflict in neighboring countries.

Some experts recently assumed that the Ukrainian advance in the Ukraine war could be slowed down by the winter, but that the situation could ease in the medium term.

Most recently, Selenskyj also warned of Russian attacks on the holidays.

It is still unclear whether the winter will ultimately lead to a relaxation in the Ukraine war.

However,

citing a strategy paper by the German government , the

NZZ is now indicating that a tough counterattack by Russian troops could follow in the coming year.

This theoretical scenario is not new: The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitro Kuleba recently spoke about the possibility and scheduled a possible attack by Vladimir Putin's troops for the first few months of 2023. Other sources also repeatedly speak of such a scenario, the possibility of one long war in Ukraine is still possible.

Various options for Russia's offensive: Putin could work with Lukashenko

According to the

NZZ

, the analysis of the German Ministry of Defense sees the possibility of a Russian counter-offensive in April 2023. Two scenarios are possible.

Focus

also

reported on it.

Accordingly, targeted rocket attacks, also using drones, on critical infrastructure could be part of the war strategy.

Russian offensive in April 2023: The first scenario

According to reports, the British secret services do not consider it possible that Russia could launch a major offensive in the Ukraine war in the near future, according to

Focus

, a scenario of the German Ministry of Defense would envisage an offensive by Putin on the Donbass.

At the same time, Belarus under Alexander Lukashenko would position several thousand soldiers on the border with Ukraine.

Experts have long feared that Putin's ally could intervene in the war.

So far, however, Lukashenko has held back.

However, should Belarusian troops be on the border with Ukraine, the defenders would have to split up to fend off a possible invasion from the north.

However, Lukashenko will most likely not intervene directly in the war, but will at most have his army deployed for threatening gestures - the domestic political pressure on the ruler seems too great.

However, the goal of the first scenario of the Russian offensive would be to bring the Donbass under complete control.

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Is Russia planning an offensive in the Ukraine war?

The second scenario

While the first scenario sees the Belarusian soldiers as a threat to the Ukrainians in the event of a Russian offensive, Lukashenko's soldiers could ultimately turn out to be decisive for the war in a second scenario.

However, this possibility is considered rather unlikely.

According to this, Putin, who recently caused astonishment with a bizarre PR appearance, would like to conquer the entire Ukraine in a two-front war.

However, the FDP in Germany recently made it clear that Ukraine should continue to be supported.

In addition to the Patriot system, other tanks were also planned for this purpose.

In this scenario, Belarus would march towards Kyiv and Russian soldiers would attack across the Donbass.

Should Putin's army succeed in advancing to western Ukraine, the troops could cut off western supplies and force the Ukrainian government to surrender.

The strategy would require general mobilization in Russia, since the Russian army had already been significantly weakened in the Ukraine war and would need more soldiers.

What speaks for an offensive by Russia?

Putin is to reinforce troops in Belarus

According to the US Institute for War Studies (ISW), Belarus is likely to play a decisive role in a possible Russian offensive.

Russia has long been creating the conditions in northern Ukraine to strengthen a possible attack.

Belarus and Russia had already held joint military exercises in the run-up to the Ukraine war.

Shortly thereafter, the Russian invasion of Ukraine took place.

A similar pattern is now repeating itself compared to then.

Before the attack on Ukraine, Russia had field hospitals set up in Belarus.

Even now there are said to be indications that Putin's army is again setting up camps in Belarus.

Although an invasion is considered unlikely, the developments can at least be seen as indications of a change in the Ukraine war.

Ukraine News: Will the war end in spring 2023?

It doesn't matter whether the scenarios of the German Ministry of Defense come true: After almost ten months, it is clear that the Ukraine war could be at a turning point.

How the West and Ukraine position themselves in the coming weeks will be decisive.

As the paper goes on to say, according to Focus, it also shows that Putin, or Russia's clout, could no longer pose such a great threat to NATO.

Pictures of the Ukraine war: great horror and small moments of happiness

View photo gallery

In the meantime, Russia's losses in the Ukraine war are so enormous that the country has been significantly weakened, not least because of western sanctions.

However: At the same time, this could be an incentive for Putin to have more nuclear weapons stationed on the border with the West, which could act as a deterrent.

End of war in spring 2023: It could be that likely

Will there be a military victory for Russia at the end of the Ukraine war or will the conflict peter out in a long-running dispute?

While the problems with the Puma tank deliveries are still a matter of public debate in Germany, the war in Ukraine could come to an end in spring 2023.

In contrast to the Russian army, the Ukrainians are better equipped against the cold.

They may take advantage of this advantage before Russia launches a major counteroffensive.

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-12-25

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