Signs of offensive on Kyiv?
Russian blogger doesn't trust Putin's army
Created: 12/26/2022, 7:22 p.m
By: Patrick Mayer
Shortly before Christmas: joint military exercises by Russian and Belarusian soldiers.
© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
US analysts see signs of a possible renewed Russian offensive from Belarus on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv.
A Russian military blogger probably doubts that.
Munich/Kyiv – What role does Belarus have in the medium term in the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine?
While Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko has denied his army will take part in combat, Russian President Vladimir Putin is apparently increasing the pressure on his partner in Minsk.
Ukraine war: Russian offensive from Belarus towards Kyiv?
On December 26th and 27th they will meet for an informal summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).
This is the third time they have spoken face-to-face in a month.
While experts and observers are at odds about what Putin intends to do with Belarus and what Lukashenko is prepared to do, US analysts seem to be unusually observing troop movements on the border with Ukraine.
Signs of another attack via northern Ukraine towards Kyiv?
As early as late February and early March, Russian troops are said to have advanced on the Ukrainian capital from Belarusian territory.
Before they were stopped at the northern city limits, probably with high losses, like now in Bakhmut in the Donbass.
In the video: Compact – The most important news about the Russia-Ukraine war
"The currently available evidence is ambivalent (contradictory)," reads the December 23 daily report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to the US think tank, some of the available evidence would help prepare for a new offensive from Belarus.
These include a newly established field hospital near the border.
"Field hospitals are not necessary for exercises and can be an indication of the preparation for combat operations," writes the ISW.
Ukraine War: Will Ukrainian Troops Be Tied Up In The North For An Offensive In The East?
The ISW also does not exclude the scenario that alleged preparations could tie down Ukrainian troops in the north to protect Kyiv, which in turn could be used by Russia for an offensive in the Luhansk region in the east.
According to the ISW, a well-known Russian military blogger allegedly believes that Putin's soldiers are in no position to launch an attack via the north.
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Our people don't want to fight the Ukrainians.
They don't see any reason for this war and don't want to die for Putin.
Pavel Latushka, Belarusian opposition politician
"Former Russian military commander Igor Girkin (...) on December 23 responded to ongoing discussions in the Russian information space about Russia's ability to launch an attack on northwestern Ukraine from Belarus," writes the ISW.
Girkin can therefore imagine a diversionary operation "to withdraw Ukrainian forces from other parts of the theater of war.
Girkin argued that the Russian military could not effectively conduct an offensive operation to seize territory, but that a diversionary operation in support of a Russian offensive elsewhere in Ukraine made militarily sense,” the report said.
Russian Army: Not ready for an offensive towards Kyiv?
The ISW further explains that since October 20, the Russian Telegram broadcaster Rybar has been spreading rumors about an “imminent” Russian offensive on Lviv, Volhynia, Kyiv, Chernihiv or Kharkiv.
Another military blogger claimed that the forces of both countries concentrated in Belarus are too small to attack Kyiv.
What is true?
Part of Russian-Belarusian military exercises: Soviet-designed infantry fighting vehicle.
© IMAGO / ITAR-TASS
Another example of an interpretation: a Belarusian opposition politician was recently - also in October - convinced that Putin and Lukashenko are planning an invasion from Belarus next spring.
"Our sources say that the Russians want to station 120,000 soldiers in Belarus by then," Pawel Latuschka, who lives in exile in Warsaw, told the
editorial network Germany (RND)
.
Latuschka said at the time: “It will be difficult for him.
We are a peaceful people, our people don't want to fight against the Ukrainians.
They see no reason for this war and do not want to die for Putin.”
War in Ukraine: Apparent troop movements on the border with Belarus
He is not alone in this opinion.
“Active participation in the war is very unpopular in Belarus.
This is also suggested by surveys conducted every three months by the British think tank Chatham House among Belarusian Internet users.
After that, only four to five percent are in favor of taking part in the fighting," explains political scientist Anna Kravtsenko, an expert at the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Ukraine and Belarus, in an interview with the
Augsburger Allgemeine
.
In fact, there are Belarusian but also Ukrainian sources reporting increased troop movements on the Belarusian side of the border.
However, obviously not to an extent that would be sufficient for a new offensive," she says: "Lukashenko's troops have not been part of the conflict so far.
Most experts don't expect that to change.
Especially since the Belarusian army is small and its military clout is likely to be manageable.”
Autocrats among themselves: Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (left) and Moscow ruler Vladimir Putin.
© IMAGO/Pavel Bednyakov
Lukashenko himself recently said that his armed forces are obviously of a manageable size. The Belarusian ruler confirmed that he would not take part in the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
"If we get directly involved in this conflict with the armed forces, with soldiers, we are not contributing anything, we are only making it worse," Lukashenko said in Minsk at the end of November, according to the Belta agency.
According to him, the Belarusian army, which is 35,000 to 40,000 strong, will not solve the problem of this campaign for Russia.
"We don't interfere, we don't kill anyone, we don't send soldiers there because it's not necessary," Lukashenko said at the time.
Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko: What are the two rulers planning at their meeting?
A bluff?
The reality?
Moscow recently transferred missile and air defense systems to Belarus.
"Our soldiers have fully completed their training at the joint combat training centers of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus," said Leonid Kasinsky of the Ministry of Defense in Minsk in a video published on Telegram at Christmas.
What concessions does Putin want Lukashenko to make before New Year's Eve?
What are the two planning when they meet?
The next few weeks in the Ukraine war will probably provide answers.
(pm)
