Franck Papazian is a member of the Coordinating Council of Armenian Associations in France. He has just published
The Erdogan Regime.
A threat to France
(Versilio/Robert Laffont, 144 p., €18).
FIGAROVOX. - On Wednesday, December 14, the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, a figure of the opposition, was sentenced to more than two years in prison for
"insulting officials",
and a ban on exercising a political mandate on the same duration.
Should we see this as an attempt by Erdogan to muzzle the opposition as the general elections of 2023 approach?
Franck PAPAZIAN. -
The year 2023 will mark the hundredth anniversary of the Turkish Republic as well as the twentieth anniversary of Erdogan's accession to power.
Erdogan has, during these twenty years, shaped a Turkey to his boot.
He Islamized the country by forced march, he organized the repression of opposition forces, he weakened minorities in general and the Kurds in particular.
He built a very powerful Turkey in terms of internal and external defense and intelligence.
He built his doctrine on the foundations of neo-Ottomanism.
Increase dominance inside Turkey to develop an imperialist strategy.
Turkey is today one of the first military powers of NATO,
it has established its influence in Europe and in France in particular via community and religious organizations which have woven their networks of influence within civil society.
It sets itself up as the leader of the Islamist world to better control and exploit it.
I explain in my book,
The Erdogan Regime, a threat to France
in detail this strategy of infiltration and domination.
It has established itself in Africa, South America and the Middle East.
It threatens Greece and Cyprus militarily, although they are part of the European Union.
Turkey has become a threat to France and to the world.
A threat to better weigh on Western societies and to better negotiate with its leaders.
Turkey is part of NATO but continues its cooperation with Russia, thus demonstrating its disloyalty.
But, at the same time, Turkey is in economic and monetary crisis, the country has sunk into record inflation, the populations are getting poorer.
A significant part of the youth fervently wishes to turn the page Erdogan to approach the future with serenity.
The protest is strong enough for Erdogan to lose Ankara, Izmir and Istanbul in the 2019 municipal elections. Istanbul, a city that Erdogan knows well since he was its mayor between 1994 and 1998. of the last municipal elections that Imamoglu was elected mayor of Istanbul.
The dynamic is very unfavorable for Erdogan.
His popularity rating is declining and the country is terribly weakened internally.
He
Frank Papazian
The year 2023 will be the year of all dangers for Erdogan and that of all hopes for the opposition.
The dynamic is very unfavorable for Erdogan.
His popularity rating is declining and the country is terribly weakened internally.
It is strengthening, of course, abroad and on the geopolitical level, but the populations are suffering.
It is in this electric context that Turkey will approach the year of its hundredth anniversary.
Imamoglu's arrest and conviction are outrageous.
Erdogan wanted to test the international community which, once again, unfortunately did not react.
This objective complicity of the international community vis-à-vis Turkey encourages Erdogan to pursue his policy of repression and to reinforce the authoritarian character of his regime.
Erdogan is strong in the weaknesses of Western leaders.
Immediately condemned, Imamoglu declared to appeal, do you think that the condemnation can be reduced or even lifted?
Erdogan has often said,
“Whoever holds Istanbul holds Turkey.”
Imamoglu brilliantly won the municipal elections in Istanbul.
He ran as a candidate for the opposition candidacy for 2023. Imamoglu's sentence to "more than two years in prison" could be reduced but not enough to allow him to be a candidate in the elections which will take place. will take place in six months.
Erdogan's strategy is precise.
His plan to win in 2023 is already activated.
Turkey is a prison for journalists and political opponents, which does not prevent it from being a partner respected by the international community.
Erdogan can afford anything and he knows it.
Frank Papazian
Faced with thousands of supporters Ekrem Imamoglu chanted:
“Long live freedom, Death to tyranny!” “Government, Resign!”.
Could this trial
provoke popular movements and demonstrations against power?
Yes, of course, and that is Erdogan's goal: to create situations that will provoke violence which, in turn, will justify waves of arrests large enough to weaken the opposition.
Let us remember how Erdogan massively repressed following the July 2016 coup attempt. This ill-prepared coup was the pretext for a massive purge of 200,000 people in military circles. opposition, the army and the civil service.
Erdogan got wind of the preparations for the putsch.
By his services, he encouraged his precipitation and he took advantage of the situation to purge the country.
It is very likely that the same causes causing the same effects, he takes advantage of situations of
opposition by oversizing them and applying the same repressive methods.
Turkey is a prison for journalists and political opponents, which does not prevent it from being a partner respected by the international community.
Erdogan can afford anything and he knows it.
Will there be a leader in Europe who will have the strength and courage to speak out against Erdogan's authoritarianism and radicalization?
Frank Papazian
Did Ekrem Imamoglu really have a chance of winning? Was he a real threat to the power in place? And what was his political project?
Yes, Imamoglu is a credible alternative to Erdogan. His victory in the municipal elections in Istanbul against Erdogan's candidate is proof of that.
We do not yet know his political project for Turkey, but his membership of the CHP, the Kemalist party, does not guarantee Turkey the renewal it needs.
Erdogan is the holder of a religious ultra-nationalism while the Kemalist tradition is part of a secular ultra-nationalist trajectory.
Will Imamoglu be able to moderate this political line if he were to come to power?
The question arises even if I think that Erdogan will be re-elected by forceps and that his regime will become more radical in the months to come.
It would be welcome if the
Europe show more vigilance and do everything possible to ensure that its Turkish ally respects basic democratic standards.
Will there be a leader in Europe who will have the strength and courage to speak out against Erdogan's authoritarianism and radicalization?
Nothing is less sure.
The recent past has, alas, shown us that courage is not the most fashionable virtue among European states.
Too bad for the Turks, the Kurds, the Armenians, the Greeks, the Cypriots, the French and the Europeans who are nevertheless the victims of Erdogan's plan of domination and expansion.
The recent past has, alas, shown us that courage is not the most fashionable virtue among European states.
Too bad for the Turks, the Kurds, the Armenians, the Greeks, the Cypriots, the French and the Europeans who are nevertheless the victims of Erdogan's plan of domination and expansion.
The recent past has, alas, shown us that courage is not the most fashionable virtue among European states.
Too bad for the Turks, the Kurds, the Armenians, the Greeks, the Cypriots, the French and the Europeans who are nevertheless the victims of Erdogan's plan of domination and expansion.