The meeting held last week at the White House, between US President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, sent a clear message to the Kremlin of determination and continued American support in Ukraine. The meeting also sent an important message to the Iranian regime, which provides Russia with advanced weapons to support its brutal war in Ukraine, and will Increase shipments and expand them to additional systems. At the meeting, Biden announced an important change in American policy, according to which Washington will send advanced Patriot air defense systems to protect Ukraine from drones, missiles and airstrikes.
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In some ways, Biden's move also turns the spotlight on Israel, which has so far refused to supply Ukraine with the Iron Dome air defense system, which demonstrated incredible success in the recent conflict in Gaza with more than 90% interception of various threats.
Ukrainian officials are pushing with all their might to receive these systems, alongside other advanced Israeli weapon systems and capabilities.
Official requests were directed from Zelensky's office, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense and the Ukrainian Embassy in Israel.
The Israeli refusal to Iron Dome
The Israeli refusal stems from several very important reasons.
The leading one is the legitimate Israeli concern that the deployment of Iron Dome in Ukraine will almost certainly lead to the fall of the system, and/or its central parts, into the hands of Russia, even if the deployment of the systems is limited to the Kyiv region.
Reasonable refusal.
Iron Dome, photo: Gideon Markovich
The system will certainly be sent for in-depth analysis in Iran, which owes many Russians, in light of its support.
An Iranian examination may allow the regime to find ways of dealing with the systems, which serve as a central pillar in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran's affiliates.
Such findings will of course be useful to Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in conflicts with Israel.
This is a risk that the outgoing government has made clear that it does not intend to take, and it seems that the new government will adopt a similar policy.
Another reason is Israel's inherent difficulty in providing such systems, when the IDF has a continuous need to purchase additional systems and interceptors. This, in light of the continuous increase in the weapons arsenal of Hezbollah and Hamas, despite Israel's successful efforts to stop, or significantly reduce, Iranian arms smuggling and capabilities Local production. A significant increase in Israeli production capacity, especially in the volumes needed by Ukraine, given its geographical distribution, will take a long time. Furthermore, the amount of time it will take to train Ukrainian forces to operate Iron Dome will not allow Ukraine to use the systems in the short term.
Biden and Zelensky in the White House, photo: AFP
One can certainly understand why Ukraine wants the system, but it would probably be easier for the US to train the Ukrainians to operate Patriot batteries. Finally, but only as a fourth reason, although many commentators present it as the first - Israel does not want to provoke sharp Russian reactions. Russia still shows a presence Significantly in Syria, where Israel maintains, according to foreign publications, a regular activity to neutralize the efforts of the Iranians to establish themselves, alongside the smuggling of advanced military equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Many reports indicate that Russia is withdrawing forces and air defense systems from Syria for deployment in Ukraine.
The Russians also stopped assisting in the maintenance of Syrian air defense systems due to a lack of spare parts, and refused to replace systems that were badly damaged or destroyed by the air force.
The Russians are not leaving Syria, photo: Reuters
At the same time, the Russians are not leaving Syria, and their military presence will probably be a long-term issue that Israel will have to deal with.
Israel is also concerned about reports that Syria turned to Iran and North Korea to provide it with air defense systems instead of the Russians.
In some ways, Biden's decision may create a cleaner division of labor with Washington.
After the deployment of the Patriot batteries, Ukraine will need less of an Iron Dome, and Israel will be able to focus on the aid it has already pledged to give to Ukraine, such as the continuation of humanitarian aid and the transfer of accurate intelligence on Iranian activity, and on the drones and ballistic missiles that are supposed to be sent to Russia from Iran.
The American Dilemma
Biden's decision to send Patriot systems presents the United States with risks similar to those of Israel, except of course the fourth reason. American systems that fall into the hands of the Russians will be used by Russia and Iran to weaken their effectiveness on the battlefield and in the defense of American forces around the world. Some of the American systems that were sent to Ukraine have already fallen into the hands of the Russians and been transferred to Iran. On the other hand, for the American power, the desire to strengthen the world under its leadership may prevail over these concerns, including the American lack of such systems in a global deployment. Biden and his advisors know how to decide for themselves whether they should take such risks. The war in Ukraine forced many countries identify and redefine their national interests.
punish the Iranian regime
Iran's involvement in the war has shed light on the alliance, which is against the interests of the US, Europe and a large part of the world's countries. At this point, it is clear to almost everyone that the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran is completely dead, as Biden recently said in his voice, even if he still refuses to state this Officially. So, absurdly, US and European officials continue to look for "creative" ways to revive the "dead" agreement.
Considering that the easing of sanctions that will accompany the revitalization of the agreement will enrich the regime, at a time when the West needs to deprive Iran of funds in light of its aid to Russia, it is clear that the official and final burial of the agreement by the countries that signed it is the right move, alongside the activation of the snapback mechanism and the return of the lifted sanctions.
The regime must be punished for its blatant violations of human rights, which include the killing of women and girls in an attempt to suppress the riots in Iran, and supporting similar killings in Ukraine by supplying sophisticated weapons systems to Russia.
Iran must not be allowed to stabilize economically - on the contrary, it must be weakened in every possible way.
This will help Israel, but also Ukraine and the US, in a combined effort to defeat Russian and Iranian aggression.
Brigadier General (ret.) Yaacov Nagel is a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD) and a visiting professor at the Faculty of Aeronautics and Space at the Technion. He previously served as a national security advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and as the acting head of the National Security Staff.
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