Sino-US relations have experienced some turmoil in the past few days.
After U.S. President Joe Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the National People's Congress, and the Ministry of Defense expressed their firm opposition to it.
The bill authorizes defense funding of $857.9 billion, $45 billion more than Biden's defense budget request.
In addition to increasing military spending to deal with China's threats, the United States has taken a big step in interfering in the Taiwan issue.
The United States intends to invite the Rim of the Pacific military exercise, which only sovereign countries participated in in the past, and plans to provide Taiwan with US$10 billion in military aid and US$2 billion in "military loans" from 2023 to 2027.
In addition to the voices of the above-mentioned four departments, the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army organized combat readiness patrols and joint firepower strike drills in the sea and airspace around Taiwan, directly declaring that "this is a firm response to the current US-Taiwan escalation and provocation."
71 sorties of military aircraft around Taiwan can be regarded as the largest annual scale.
In August this year, the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan. At that time, the PLA dispatched 68 military planes.
Judging from the voices of the four Chinese departments and the reaction of the People's Liberation Army, the situation this time is quite serious.
All parties are generally concerned about what kind of chain reaction will be triggered in Sino-US relations.
The Eastern Theater of the People's Liberation Army announced on December 25 that the Eastern Theater of the People's Liberation Army organized joint combat readiness police patrols and joint firepower strike drills in the sea and airspace around Taiwan Island.
This is a resolute response to the current US-Taiwan escalation and provocation.
The picture shows a combat ship maneuvering towards the target sea area at high speed.
(Official WeChat account of the PLA Eastern Theater Command)
In my opinion, the process of normalizing tension in the Taiwan Strait is actually a process of desensitization of Sino-US relations due to the Taiwan issue.
Although the U.S. is constantly playing up the one-China principle, as long as the U.S. policy of supporting one China and not Taiwan independence remains unchanged, Sino-U.S. relations will not deteriorate to the point of no return.
After Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the relationship between China and the United States entered a trough, but after the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States in Bali, China and the United States resumed some cooperation in areas such as climate.
Has the U.S. approach changed?
No.
The leaders' meeting is an opportunity for China and the United States to ease tensions, but it does not mean that the differences between China and the United States on issues such as Taiwan have improved significantly.
The U.S. National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 is absolutely destructive to Sino-U.S. relations. Under this bill in the next five years, the situation in the Taiwan Strait will definitely not be peaceful.
After the U.S. midterm elections, it is highly probable that the Speaker of the Republican House of Representatives will visit Taiwan.
Will China and the United States continue to escalate their confrontation over the situation in the Taiwan Strait?
The Eastern Theater of the People's Liberation Army announced on December 25 that the Eastern Theater of the People's Liberation Army organized joint combat readiness police patrols and joint firepower strike drills in the sea and airspace around Taiwan Island.
This is a resolute response to the current US-Taiwan escalation and provocation.
The picture shows the bomber taking off.
(Official WeChat account of the PLA Eastern Theater Command)
The normalization of Sino-US relations is at an impasse, which is not in the interests of either side.
The degree to which the interests of China and the United States are intertwined determines that Sino-US relations cannot be shut down just by saying they are shut down.
China has plenty of room to use its big stick when dealing with US allies such as Australia and Canada, but the particularity of Sino-US relations determines that Sino-US relations cannot be frequently suspended due to certain problems.
Under the general trend of China's rise, Taiwan seeks to increase its military power, and the United States increases its investment in Taiwan to enhance Taiwan's ability to resist reunification. This is an inevitable spiral struggle escalation.
During this process, all parties adhered to the mentality of "I can not kill but I have to sharpen my knife".
This spiral upward process is difficult to change.
Suspending bilateral relations on the grounds that the other party's actions exceeded the standard is a strategy to stop the other party, but it is not an effective long-term solution.
After Pelosi visited Taiwan, the National Defense Authorization Act signed by Biden is proof.
As long as the one-China red line is not breached, it will become less and less likely that Sino-US relations will be suspended at any time due to the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
The Taiwan issue is the foundation of Sino-US relations, but it is not the prerequisite for the development of Sino-US relations today.
China and the United States should still quarrel over the Taiwan issue, and the military exercise still needs to be conducted, but the development of Sino-US relations should still be the same.
In the end, the normalized tense situation may turn into a routine tense relationship management, so it is no surprise.
Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act to sell arms to Taiwan. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the "China Threat" Beijing: China has made serious representations to the US National Defense Authorization Act related to China. Authorization bill includes $10 billion in military aid to Taiwan over 5 years