The 2024 Taiwan presidential election season is approaching, and the two main competing political parties on the stage, the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang, have made voices to adjust their cross-strait policies.
After the major defeat in the nine-in-one election, many people in the Democratic Progressive Party advocated re-examining the line of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan"; and the Kuomintang, which is once again bullish, said that it is expected to complete the cross-strait, Discussion on important issues such as international affairs and national security, "Preparation for returning to power in 2024".
Looking back at the political history of Taiwan's democratic elections, we can always hear the adjustment of "cross-strait discourse". All major political parties have shifted their footsteps in discourse based on the consideration of election priorities.
However, no matter what the color of the political party is, if you move around, you can still see an invisible boundary line, which is the "protection of Taiwan" based on the premise of "rejection of reunification".
From the "partial security" in the Chiang Kai-shek era, to the "Guidelines for National Unification" used by Lee Teng-hui to counteract Beijing's hypocrisy, to the "one country on each side" in the Chen Shui-bian era, and then to the Ma Ying-jeou era, which was called "first economics and then politics" and was actually " This is true of the "peaceful development" of "no politics" and the "resistance to China and protection of Taiwan" in the era of Tsai Ing-wen.
In other words, times have been changing, and political parties in Taiwan have come and gone in turn, but the master of the Taipei Presidential Palace has always pursued "rejecting reunification and protecting Taiwan." This is not only in the interest of votes, but also in line with the interests of the United States in the Taiwan Strait.
The reason why this route worked in the past is that, on the one hand, the camp barriers left over from the Cold War allowed Taiwan to develop by taking advantage of the Cold War dividends; It is even more difficult to dig a small hole, but it is even more difficult to overthrow the entire wall. Whenever there is a political disturbance, it is easier to close the door than to open the door.
The Central Committee of the Kuomintang will begin preparations for its return to power in 2024. According to insiders in the party, it is expected that the keynote of discussions on cross-strait, international relations, and national security issues will be completed next spring.
The picture shows KMT Chairman Zhu Lilun (middle) speaking at the Standing Committee of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on December 28.
(provided by the KMT)
This "democracy game" in Taiwan has been played behind closed doors for decades. How long can we continue to play with our eyes and ears covered?
The way for Taiwan to settle down after the war has never been a simple sentence that "Taiwanese dignity" and "Taiwan's subjectivity" are equal to the panacea, but it is ups and downs between Washington and Beijing's power competition.
One of the key points was the dispute over the seat of "China" in the United Nations in the 1970s, and the "one China" principle of the international order was established.
Unfortunately, Taiwan has missed too many opportunities given by history. The blue-green political parties that take turns in power, and the vast majority of politicians are all swallowed up by partiality and alienation in order to gain a firm foothold in the electoral system and gain political energy. Become a part of the cross-strait issues and muddle, forget who you really are, forget or be determined to sever your relationship with the mainland in history.
In the end, "different routes lead to the same goal", both of them embarked on the same old road, relying on their vassalism to the United States and their resistance to the mainland barriers, leading tens of millions of voters to take the illusory "subjectivity" hallucinogen together.
History has reached another juncture where a choice needs to be made. The competition between Beijing and Washington in Taiwan has risen to a new level, and it is a turmoil in the global geopolitical sector that is related to "the rise of the east and the decline of the west" and "a century of changes." Restructured macro level.
While Washington talks about "peace and stability," it transfers the talent and technology of TSMC, the "protective mountain of Taiwan," to the United States. At the same time, it pressures the Tsai Ing-wen government to extend the military service period. Whether the next step is to enter the realm of "both men and women soldiers" Imagination has come true, and Washington's "Ukraineization" of Taiwan may be imminent.
On December 27, Tsai Ing-wen presided over the "Press Conference on Strengthening the National Defense Force Structure Adjustment Plan". She emphasized that Taiwan's four-month military training service can no longer cope with the ever-changing combat readiness situation and needs. Therefore, starting from 2024, the one-year obligation will resume. He said that adjusting the military service policy was an extremely difficult decision.
(Taiwan Presidential Palace)
On the other side of the Taiwan Strait, in Beijing, the "Overall Strategy of the Party for Solving the Taiwan Issue in the New Era" was first written into the third historical resolution of the Communist Party of China, and then into the political report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. It even draws a red line in front of Joe Biden that "solving the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people's own business".
It has been repeatedly stated that the "Two Systems Taiwan Plan" is also on the line, and Beijing officials' discussions about "post-unification" are not groundless, but just push the boat along the way.
Beijing has repeatedly stated that it will "strive for the prospect of peaceful reunification with the utmost sincerity and efforts." This is the biggest issue that Taiwan's presidential candidates can no longer avoid in 2024. A road that will exhaust Beijing's "greatest sincerity" and "greatest efforts"?
Or during the peace preservation period, bring Taiwan to the negotiating table in Beijing?
In other words,
whether it is the Democratic Progressive Party, the Kuomintang, Ke Wenzhe, or any political figures who are interested in leading Taiwan's future, their "cross-strait discourse" can no longer only be considered by Taipei and Washington, but must be based on history. Put Beijing back into view.
Drunkenness means collective sinking, and the people of Taiwan must torture their souls to all political figures on the stage. How can it be possible for a group of groups to deal with cross-strait affairs pragmatically?
The leader of Taiwan in 2024 must be a leader, not a person with feet bound. How to prepare early, not being forced out, is the winner.
You must know that the Communist Party of China has experienced several waves of political turmoil in Hong Kong, especially the impact of the anti-amendment bill in 2019. In the future, it will inevitably demand more true "patriots" for the governance of Taiwan, rather than a "sudden reunification faction" who has changed the direction of the wind.
Judging from historical experience, the proposition of the reunification of the two sides of the strait can be fully expected that in the process, countless new forces will rise from the ground.
As for the powerful people on Taiwan's political stage that can be seen before us, if they choose to follow the old-fashioned path and fail to see the current situation and correct their existing views, they will also face the reality of being swept away by history.
For Taiwan in 2024, it is by no means as simple as electing a president.
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