The governments of Turkey and Syria meet for the first time after 11 years of war

The Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu, receives his Turkish counterpart, Hulusi Akar, this Wednesday in MoscowMINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF THE RUSSIA / ZUMA PRESS /

The defense ministers of Turkey and Syria met this Wednesday in Moscow for the first time since the civil war began in the Arab country in 2011, in which both governments are deeply involved.

The thaw process, which has been preparing for weeks under Russian mediation, focuses on refugee issues — which could jeopardize the re-election of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2023 elections — and Kurdish militias in the northern Syria, against which Ankara wants to carry out a new military offensive.

For Bashar al-Assad's regime it is a way to break its international isolation, especially at a time of serious economic crisis.

"During this constructive meeting, the Syrian crisis, the refugee issue and joint efforts to fight all terrorist organizations on Syrian soil were discussed," the Turkish ministry said in a statement after the meeting in which the Defense Minister participated. Russian, Sergei Shoigu, and his Turkish and Syrian counterparts, Hulusi Akar and Ali Mahmud Abbas.

The meeting was also attended by the heads of Turkish espionage, Hakan Fidan, and Syrian, Ali Mamluk, who had already met previously.

On his return from Moscow on Thursday, Akar stated that this type of meeting "will continue" in order to contribute "to peace and stability" in Syria.

It is expected that in the coming weeks the foreign ministers of both countries will meet (also within this trilateral format),

“Turkey has long since abandoned its plans to promote regime change in Syria and is working together with Russia and Iran for a stabilization [of the conflict].

The calculation now is that it is more useful for Turkey's national interest to establish a direct relationship with Damascus," says Sinan Ülgen, a researcher at the

Carnegie Europe.

One of the big problems facing the negotiations is the definition of “terrorism”.

For Damascus, the opposition and rebel groups that are maintained thanks to the support of Turkey are terrorists.

For Ankara, the Kurdish militias who, on various fronts along the border, are fighting on the same lines as the regime (and also have US support in north-eastern Syria).

After the attack on November 13 in Istanbul, of which Ankara accused the Kurdish armed group PKK and its Syrian subsidiary YPG —both organizations have denied their involvement—, the Turkish government has redoubled its threats to intervene militarily on Syrian soil to put an end to the Kurdish militias, whose positions it has bombed from Turkish territory.

These huge differences make it difficult to reach an agreement between Ankara and Damascus, according to Ömer Özkizilcik, an expert on the Syrian conflict.

"Russia has prevented Turkey from intervening against the YPG since 2019, and insists to Ankara that all its security concerns can be resolved through direct dialogue with the Damascus government," explains this analyst: "The problem is that Assad is not can meet Turkish demands.

The YPG and the regime are closely intertwined in northern Syria, they share bases and positions.

When Turkey bombs the YPG, it also kills regime soldiers."

On the other hand, the demands of Damascus are also extremely complicated for Ankara to carry out.

In fact, this Thursday, the head of Turkish diplomacy, Mevlüt Çavusoglu, reiterated that his country is "the guarantor of the Syrian opposition" and that it will not act against his interests.

“If Turkey stops protecting the rebels and withdraws from the territory it controls in northern Syria [almost 9,000 square kilometers], the Syrian regime will retake its control militarily, which will mean a humanitarian disaster and a new wave of refugees, which it is precisely what the Turkish government wants to avoid”, says analyst Özkizilcik.

Refugees and opponents

For Erdogan's government, the important thing about this process is "holding a face-to-face meeting with El Asad before the elections [scheduled for next June at the latest], which will allow Turkish public opinion to say that a dialogue aimed at the return of refugees”, says Ülgen.

Turkey hosts 3.6 million Syrian refugees, but public opinion has largely turned against them as the economic situation has worsened and the opposition has fueled anti-immigration sentiment.

One of the star promises of the Turkish opposition is to start a dialogue with the El Asad regime in order to agree on the return of the refugees, so by adopting the same strategy that he flatly rejected until recently, Erdogan manages to deactivate one of the keys of its rivals' program.

Another thing is that the proposal is feasible: the majority of refugee associations do not believe a return to the same Syria of El Asad from which they fled is viable.

“However, at this moment, I think that the message he conveys is more important [for Erdogan] than the result itself,” concludes Ülgen.

The Turkish-Syrian thaw is part of the political realignment that has been taking place in recent years in the Middle East.

If, as a result of the Arab Spring, Turkey had opted for an idealistic and interventionist policy, seeking to increase its regional influence through support for political parties and rebel groups —mostly Islamist in nature— opposed to the traditional authoritarian regimes of the area, has now adopted a much more pragmatic diplomacy.

Thus, in recent months, it has completed reconciliation with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, and is in the process of doing so with Egypt, which has resulted in a rain of funds and investments from the Gulf monarchies and Russia that have made it possible to stabilize the Turkish currency at a time of great financial difficulties.

In return, however, the thousands of political exiles from the Middle East who had found refuge in Istanbul and a base from which to fight oppression in their countries of origin have found it increasingly difficult to remain in Turkey or that the authorities demand that they reduce the tone in their publications and media outlets that broadcast from Turkish territory.

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