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Is Putin forcing Belarus into the Ukraine war? What speaks for and against a dangerous Lukashenko turnaround

2022-12-30T11:39:14.567Z


Is Putin forcing Belarus into the Ukraine war? What speaks for and against a dangerous Lukashenko turnaround Created: 12/30/2022 12:33 p.m By: Florian Naumann Meeting with Putin: Lukashenko wants closer cooperation with Russia. (Archive image) © Alexei Druzhinin/dpa Belarus speaks of a possible “provocation” by Ukraine. Can Lukashenko's regime be drawn into Russia's war? There are conflicting


Is Putin forcing Belarus into the Ukraine war?

What speaks for and against a dangerous Lukashenko turnaround

Created: 12/30/2022 12:33 p.m

By: Florian Naumann

Meeting with Putin: Lukashenko wants closer cooperation with Russia.

(Archive image) © Alexei Druzhinin/dpa

Belarus speaks of a possible “provocation” by Ukraine.

Can Lukashenko's regime be drawn into Russia's war?

There are conflicting signs.

Minsk/Moscow - On Thursday (December 29) there was a brief moment of shock in the Ukraine war - but possibly also an indication of future developments: Belarus reported the impact of a Ukrainian missile on its territory.

Speculations about a possible entry into the war by Alexander Lukashenko's regime have been thriving for weeks.

And declarations of war have historically been constructed for minor reasons.

Belarus initially reacted cautiously.

But on Friday (December 30) Minsk followed suit: Air defense chief Kirill Kazantsev did not want to rule out a deliberate strike: "Either the unguided anti-aircraft missile was fired unintentionally due to the poor training of the team, or the missile was defective, or it is the case to intentionally provoke the Ukrainian armed forces,” he said.

It is probably too early to give the all-clear: The experts at the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) consider Belarus's entry into the war to be very unlikely, but not entirely impossible.

A little more realistically, they see a new Russian invasion of Kyiv from Lukashenko's territory - and that in turn is a worst-case scenario for Ukraine.

Indications for and against new adversity from Belarus at a glance:

Lukashenko's Belarus in the Ukraine war: what speaks for entering the war

  • The military of Belarus and Russia are working together:

    weeks ago, Russia and Belarus decided on joint maneuvers and units.

    According to the ISW, Sergei Shoigu's defense ministry only shared pictures of exercises in Belarus on Thursday.

  • Ukraine sees massive Russian military expansion plans in Belarus:

    The Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Oleksiy Gromov ruled on Thursday that Russia wanted to expand an air force base in Belarus into a logistics hub.

    "Non-specific work" is in progress, he said, according to the experts.

    However, this does not have to speak for a direct involvement: The measure could also serve the “long-term” of Russia’s presence in Belarus.

  • Experts do not rule out a Ukrainian strike against Belarus:

    Thursday's missile discovery could actually have been a mistake - Ukraine offered Minsk help with reconnaissance.

    However, the ISW also does not rule out an intentional strike: It is unclear whether it was a "response" to Russian shelling from Belarus.

    Ukraine apparently also attacked targets in Russia on Thursday.

    How Lukashenko would react to such attacks is difficult to judge.

  • Possible pressure from Putin:

    There is no official information about demands from Moscow to Lukashenko's address.

    Before Putin's last visit to Minsk, Ukrainian military commander Serhiy Naiev warned that the Kremlin would probably ask Belarus to participate.

    The head of the Ukrainian secret service, Andriy Yusov, also stated in early December that Russia was constantly pressuring its neighbors - albeit without success so far.

Belarus as a starting point for a new Russian invasion of Ukraine:

  • Russia continues to send soldiers and material to Belarus:

    photos of Russian trains loaded with military material have recently been circulating on social networks - according to geocheckers on the way to the west and Belarus.

    According to their own statements, Belarusian observers have been seeing such movements for a long time.

  • Ukraine warns of preparations for an invasion:

    Shortly before Christmas, the Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Resnikov had not ruled out that Russia is preparing an offensive from Belarus - although there are still no concrete signs of this.

    Shortly before, Reznikov had warned more generally of a new Russian offensive between January and March.

    However, the voices from the Kiev government are not unanimous: It was also said that a threat on Belarusian territory would primarily serve to weaken Ukraine's morale.

  • Vague signs of war preparations:

    Although the ISW currently considers the danger of an offensive from Belarus to be low - the experts have already reported signs.

    Including a newly established field hospital near the border.

    "Field hospitals are not necessary for drills and may be indicative of preparation for combat operations," the ISW wrote Dec. 23.

Lukashenko under pressure in Belarus – and Russia too weak?

Arguments against escalation

  • Too few personnel for a new invasion:

    Gromov considers even an alliance of Belarusian and Russian units to be too weak for a march towards Kiev - at least according to the current status. Altogether, the "Union" has over 30,000 soldiers in the area.

    According to Ukrainian estimates, Belarus has a maximum of 10,000 to 15,000 men.

    In February, 45,000 fighters were still waiting at the border.

    And failed.

    However, the ISW urges caution: The strength from the beginning of the war is not absolutely necessary.

    Russia could also succumb to the illusion that an advance could succeed this time with fewer personnel.

  • Lukashenko could fear his citizens - just like Putin:

    The Belarusian ruler has repeatedly denied entering the war.

    Possibly also because a war effort could upset the population again - experts from the think tank "Chatham House" assume that 90 percent of Belarus are opposed to the war.

    A suspected secret service whistleblower recently said that Lukashenko may have given secrets to Ukraine in order to avoid entering the war.

    The Belarusian judiciary has recently shown a hard hand against "railway partisans" in the country.

    But direct aid could get the regime into trouble.

    And that would probably not be in Putin's interest either, as

    Welt

    correspondent Pavel Lokshin recently suspected.

  • Military movements as a diversionary maneuver:

    Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kirill Budanov claimed in a BBC interview on Thursday that a train carrying Russian soldiers recently stopped near the Belarus-Ukraine border and then moved on a few hours later - without a single soldier getting off.

    Due to such incidents, Ukraine has so far considered what is happening at the border to be more of a "diversionary maneuver".

    The aim in this case would probably be to get Ukraine to take precautions on the northern border - and thus weaken it on other fronts.

    The Ukrainian military expert Oleg Zhdanov speculated in the summer.

  • Denials from Lukashenko and Putin:

    Talks between Putin and Lukashenko had recently fueled fears.

    At least officially, both sides rejected speculation about Belarus entering the war.

    According to the Reuters agency, Lukashenko himself spoke of “conspiracy theories” – but pointed to possible attacks from “neighbors”.

    Possibly an indication that he wants to keep his troops in the country.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also condemned "unfounded" speculation.

    Later, even harsher words came from the Kremlin, addressing Germany, among other things.

    Worries are "stupid and unfounded".

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Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-12-30

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