Since the second half of 2022, the situation in Kosovo has continued to be tense, and the fuse is the issue of license plates and ID cards involving sovereignty disputes.
In June this year, the Kosovo authorities announced new regulations, requiring local Serbs (Serbia) to replace their license plates and identity documents with Kosovo standards before August 1.
This move aroused the sensitive nerves among Kosovo. After all, although Kosovo declared independence in 2008, its former suzerain Serbia has never recognized its statehood, and the Serbs living in the north of Kosovo continue to use the license plates and certificates issued by Serbia. Documents, refused to recognize the relevant documents issued by the Kosovo side, showing its denial of Kosovo's sovereignty.
Therefore, after the Kosovo authorities announced the new regulations, hundreds of Serbs took to the streets to demonstrate.
Afterwards, the situation continued to escalate, and the Kosovo authorities had no choice but to negotiate with the ambassadors of the European Union and the United States, agreeing to postpone the implementation of the plan until September 1. The two sides also reached a consensus on the identity document dispute on August 27, and made mutual concessions on this issue.
However, the license plate controversy continued to rage, and the effective date was postponed to November 1. The Serbs in Kosovo continued to express their dissatisfaction, and announced on November 5 that they would resign collectively from the government and public institutions.
On December 11, 2022, Kosovo police patrolled the bridge in the town of Mitrovica.
(Reuters)
After entering December, the situation escalated significantly.
On the 10th, the Kosovo Serbs launched a demonstration, blocking the road with a large number of trucks, ambulances, and agricultural vehicles, demanding that the Kosovo side release the former Serb police officer arrested in the previous demonstration, which led to traffic jams at the Kosai border crossing. Demonstrators Conflicts broke out with the police.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said he would submit a request to the Kosovo Peace Implementation Force (KFOR) deployed by NATO to allow Serbia to send troops to Kosovo to protect the Serbs, but said he "knows that this request will not be approved."
In any case, this is the first time Serbia has invoked the terms of the 1999 UN resolution that ended the Kosovo war.
On December 26, Serbian media reported that the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy had issued an "ultimatum" demanding that Vucic allow the Serbs in northern Kosovo to clear roadblocks within 24 hours and end the confrontation with the local government. Otherwise, it will allow Kuwait to forcibly clear the roadblocks, and Serb casualties may be inevitable.
On the night of the 26th, Vucic ordered the Serbian army and police to enter the highest level of combat readiness. According to the Serbian Ministry of Defense, this move is to maintain Serbia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to protect Serbian citizens wherever they live from terrorism. threaten.
The implication is that the Serbian army may enter the Serbian-inhabited area in northern Kosovo.
This action and gesture has aroused hidden concerns about the resurgence of the powder kegs in the Balkans, and also made the outside world speculate whether Serbia will carry out "special military operations" against Kosovo, following Russia's precedent.
The situation in northern Kosovo continued to be tense on December 27. Some Serbs set up roadblocks there to confront the Kosovo government.
(Reuters)
Sustaining foundations of the Kosovo model
To analyze this problem, we must first identify the key to maintaining the "Kosovo Model".
In 1991, local forces in Kosovo held an independence referendum. The turnout rate was as high as 90%, and 98% of the public supported Kosovo’s independence. However, the result of the referendum was not recognized; It quickly got out of control and detonated racial vendettas. The "Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SRJ)" headed by Serbia (the former Yugoslavia began to disintegrate and consisted of Serbia and Montenegro) chose to send troops to suppress it. NATO also intervened in 1999, and without the consent of the Security Council Under this circumstance, large-scale air strikes were launched against the Yugoslav Alliance, and the latter could only be forced to retreat, tacitly acquiescing to the fact that the peacekeeping force stationed in and took over Kosovo.
Since then, Kosovo has been effectively independent under the trusteeship of the United Nations, and Serbia has only nominal sovereignty over it, but has no ability to rule.
Over the years, Kosovo has continued to express its willingness for independence to Serbia, but the latter has always adhered to the bottom line of "autonomy without division" negotiations. In the end, Kosovo saw that the negotiations failed, so it was convenient for it to declare independence on February 17, 2008.
Although Serbia could not accept it, it had to bow its head under the strong pressure of NATO and the United Nations, announcing that it would "never give up Kosovo's sovereignty", but promised to "never use force to prevent Kosovo's independence".
Kosovo Serbs block roads in the Kosovo town of North Mitrovica, which is mostly Serb, on December 14, 2022.
(Reuters)
Today, Kosovo has been recognized by 119 countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, etc.; however, there are still a certain number of countries that do not recognize Kosovo's independence, including Serbia, Russia, Spain, China, etc.
This phenomenon prevented Kosovo from formally participating in many international organizations, such as NATO, the United Nations, and the European Union. Political frictions occurred between Kosovo from time to time over transactional issues of sovereign jurisdiction.
Take the license plate issue as an example. It happened as early as 2021. At that time, Serbs also launched road blockage demonstrations. Serbia was dissatisfied with Kosovo’s dispatch of a large number of special police forces to the border, so it threatened to “take over” the local Serb community with armed superiority.
Later, under the mediation of the European Union, the conflict ended with an agreement between the two sides. Kosse agreed that NATO troops would patrol and maintain stability in northern Kosovo, and that vehicles from the two places would use special stickers to cover their national symbols, allowing people to move freely across the border.
To sum up, the "Kosovo model" includes the following three characteristics.
First, the change of sovereignty in the disputed area was not recognized by the original suzerain country, but the latter essentially gave up its efforts to recover it militarily; The latter tends to accept the fait accompli; third, the friction between the disputed area and the original suzerain country has been prolonged for a long time, but freezing the status quo is a relatively low-cost option for all parties, so the friction will often be mediated by external forces and the self-restraint of the conflicting parties curtain down.
In short, the "Kosovo Model" is not a perfect solution, but Serbia's inability to defeat the NATO army is the key foundation for the maintenance of this model for many years.
Kosovo Serbs block roads in the Kosovo town of North Mitrovica, which is mostly Serbian, on December 11, 2022.
(Reuters)
The Russo-Ukraine war gave both sides the confidence to upgrade
Focusing on the current strategic environment in Eastern Europe, NATO's powerful pattern has not changed. Therefore, although Serbia has entered the highest level of combat readiness, it is unlikely to rashly send troops to take over the Serb community in northern Kosovo, or even recover the entire Kosovo. After all, this move will inevitably trigger NATO , the United Nations will intervene, and the result will not be Kosovo ushering in a "war of annihilation", but Serbia may be riddled with holes again.
Therefore, it can be seen from the follow-up development that under the mediation of Vučić, the Kosovo judiciary released the former Serbian policeman on the 28th and converted him to house arrest. The Serbs in northern Kosovo also agreed to start dismantling the roadblocks on the morning of the 29th. The combat readiness status was subsequently cancelled.
In all fairness, the license plate issue between Kosovo could have been resolved through negotiation, but this time it was escalated all the way to Serbia entering a state of combat readiness and using the provisions of the 1999 UN resolution. The "window of opportunity" of the Russo-Ukraine War raises the level of confrontation in exchange for the political interests they each desire.
On Kosovo's side, it wants to gain international recognition and join the United Nations and the European Union. However, due to concerns that this move may lead to Serbia's violent backlash, it has not been able to get what it wants.
Now that the Russia-Ukraine war is unstoppable, Kosovo should think that Europe and the United States can no longer bear the political and economic costs of a new war in Eastern Europe, and Russia, which has always supported Serbia, is deeply mired in war. It must be temporarily unable to be the backer of Serbia. The confrontation with Serbia will help Kosovo blackmail the West, even if the actual results may not be significant.
For example, on December 14, Kosovo officially signed the document and submitted its application to join the European Union.
But before that, Serbia has been waiting in line for many years. Although the EU has the intention to favor Kosovo, it does not dare to "grow the tiger's beard" to Serbia on this issue. Therefore, it only accepted Kosovo's application without making any promises. It is much more low-key than when responding to "Ukraine's application to join the European Union."
Kosovo Serbs block roads in the Kosovo town of North Mitrovica, which is mostly Serbian, on December 11, 2022.
(Reuters)
Serbia is dissatisfied with the long-term favoritism of the West to Kosovo, and believes that the EU, as the main coordinator of the Kosovo issue, has not effectively guided and supervised the negotiations on core issues. That's why license plate issues and conflicts of all kinds broke out repeatedly.
The European Union indulged and ignored this, and Kosovo gradually used unilateral legal principles as a basis to escalate its actions and stimulate the Serb and Serbian governments.
Therefore, in the face of the license plate dispute, Serbia also took advantage of the window of opportunity of the Russo-Ukrainian war, that is, judged that Europe could not afford the outbreak of another war, boldly raised the level of response, and demonstrated Serbia’s political stance and attitude.
Of course, in the face of European and American societies, Serbia also has its own long-term political agenda, including joining the European Union, allowing the Serbs in Kosovo to form an autonomous union, and allowing North Kosovo to be incorporated into Serbia, etc. In this secret negotiation with EU officials, Serbia may also propose and.
But the EU also has its own political agenda. For example, the reason why Serbia’s application to join the EU has not been successful for many years is that the EU hopes to exchange conditions, that is, Serbia’s acquiescence in Kosovo’s accession to the United Nations and other international organizations in exchange for Serbia’s rapid access to the EU.
It is taken for granted that it is impossible for the Serbian side to agree. Even if moderate politicians dare to make a decision, it is impossible for the surging public opinion in Serbia to agree.
To sum up, the situation seems to be tense this time. In fact, neither side of Kossa has the willingness to exchange fire, but wants to gain political benefits through it. However, neither the EU nor the United Nations dare to make any promises. The reason is that they are worried about doing more and making more mistakes. In favor of Kosovo, it is necessary to take into account Serbia's feelings. If there is too much difference between the two sides, the Kosovo conflict may resume.
Of course, whether it is NATO, the European Union or the United Nations, they are relatively favored organizations for Kosovo. Although they are unlikely to incite troubles in Kosovo, they are not easy to prevent Kosovo from striving for "equality and reciprocity" with Serbia.
Right now, the issue of the license plate is still unresolved, only the expiry date will be extended to April 2023, and the period will be implemented in stages. Of course, if it follows the previous example in 2021, Kosai may be able to coordinate and solve the problem with stickers, but it depends on the political considerations of both parties , and the will to restrain the situation.
As mentioned earlier, although the Kosovo model has frozen the flames of war, it is difficult to prevent the conflict between the two sides. Even if the license plate issue is resolved in the future, Kosovo will still develop various frictions around the issue of sovereignty. Demand, escalate the confrontation state.
In the foreseeable future, the Kosovo issue will not detonate a major war, but it is destined to be repeatedly painful.
What is the key to maintaining the Kosovo model?
NATO's military presence.
What role does the Russian-Ukrainian war play in the Kosovo conflict?
Let Serbia and Kosovo judge that Europe can no longer face a new war, so escalating the situation will help them gain political benefits.
The situation in Serbia and Kosovo is heating up. The United States and the EU: are working with the leaders of both parties to seek a solution. Kosovo Serbs set up roadblocks to demonstrate.
U.S. media: Kosovo will submit an application in the next few days with a preliminary goal of joining the European Union in 2030. EU armored vehicles are attacked. The situation in Kosovo is heating up again.