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French President Emmanuel Macron during his Christmas speech
Photo: LUDOVIC MARIN / AFP
French President Emmanuel Macron plans to present a bill on January 10 that is already dividing the country: the plan is to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 or 65.
For many people in France, this is an affront, for Macron it is probably the most important reform project of his second term.
Now a protest is formed.
“People in France have to work a little more,” preaches Macron.
Otherwise, the welfare state and pension payments could not be maintained at the current level.
After the liberal put the first attempt at pension reform on hold because of the corona pandemic, he is now speeding up.
The reform should take effect as early as summer 2023, and there is no further delay or a deal with the opposition and unions in sight.
Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne took three months of additional time in September to consult with social partners and political parties, without a compromise being found.
First protest marches announced
Specifically, the government relies on calculations that the pension fund will accumulate deficits if the retirement age is not raised.
The unions doubt the figures.
Macron also justified the fact that it is necessary to keep pension spending under control by saying that France is facing expenses with the energy transition and investments in schools and health care that it cannot otherwise shoulder.
The news magazine "l'Obs" also quoted ex-President François Hollande with the assumption that the government wanted to signal budget responsibility towards Brussels with the reform after billions in aid for the population in the current energy crisis and escalating national debt.
What is certain is that Macron has already united the unions against him, everyone wants to strike and demonstrate together.
"There hasn't been such an announcement in the past twelve years," said the head of the CGT trade union federation, Philippe Martinez, to the magazine "l'Obs".
And the left-wing party La France Insoumise led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon is already mobilizing its own protest march for January 21.
Attempts by the old left to make life difficult for his adversary Macron with street protests have met with only a muted response in recent months.
Whether Macron will be able to push through his reform will be influenced by the extent of the protests on the streets.
The support that he can mobilize for the project in Parliament is likely to be more decisive.
Since he has not had his own absolute majority since the parliamentary elections in the summer, he is relying on support from other political camps.
Of these, only the conservative Républicains consider a reform sensible.
Their newly elected party leader Éric Ciotti is now faced with the decision of whether the Républicains will benefit more from supporting Macron or going into opposition to him.
As far as balancing out the reform is concerned, a game of poker has long since started with three numbers circulating.
If Macron’s target retirement age of 65 remains, is there a compromise at 64 years – a Senate demand with which Prime Minister Borne could come to terms, according to media reports – or is there just a reform light with a rapid increase in the retirement age to 63, how does it work out conservative corner demanded?
Another option would be to use a special rule that would allow a project to be considered accepted after an inconclusive debate even without a parliamentary resolution.
Whether Macron wants to go that far is an open question.
mrc/dpa