Christophe Assens is professor of strategy at the University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines and author of Networks, the new rules of the game (2021, VA Éditions).
LE FIGARO. - Several Facebook pages call for reviving the movement of "yellow vests", notably by going to Paris for the first Saturday of 2023. Can inflation, a phenomenon that is part of the long term, push people to go down in the street as was the case with the 80 km/h in November 2018?
Christophe Assens. -
In my opinion, inflation cannot unify a large-scale social movement, because everyone in France is not affected in the same way by the rise in prices.
Some benefit from compensatory measures or targeted aid, others benefit from wage catch-up or the granting of bonuses, when the poorest do not necessarily have a safety net such as zero-rate VAT on basic necessities. .
However, inflation is a scapegoat that masks the reality of economic problems.
The price increase stems mainly from imported phenomena: the war in Ukraine causing tensions on the price of energy, the rupture of supply chains from China due to Covid-19,
the rise in raw materials partly linked to global warming.
Under these conditions, it is important to have a strategic State in France capable of restoring national sovereignty in certain strategic areas of the economy (transport, energy, telecommunications, health, food, digital) , and defense (independence and critical mass).
To achieve this objective, it is necessary to spend less by simplifying the administrative rules;
to spend better by concentrating the budget on investments and less on operations;
by refocusing the State on sovereign functions and by reforming the territorial "millefeuille" to make decentralization more effective.
have a strategic State in France capable of restoring national sovereignty in certain strategic areas of the economy (transport, energy, telecommunications, health, food, digital), and defense (independence and critical size).
To achieve this objective, it is necessary to spend less by simplifying the administrative rules;
to spend better by concentrating the budget on investments and less on operations;
by refocusing the State on sovereign functions and by reforming the territorial "millefeuille" to make decentralization more effective.
have a strategic State in France capable of restoring national sovereignty in certain strategic areas of the economy (transport, energy, telecommunications, health, food, digital), and defense (independence and critical size).
To achieve this objective, it is necessary to spend less by simplifying the administrative rules;
to spend better by concentrating the budget on investments and less on operations;
by refocusing the State on sovereign functions and by reforming the territorial "millefeuille" to make decentralization more effective.
and defense (independence and critical mass).
To achieve this objective, it is necessary to spend less by simplifying the administrative rules;
to spend better by concentrating the budget on investments and less on operations;
by refocusing the State on sovereign functions and by reforming the territorial "millefeuille" to make decentralization more effective.
and defense (independence and critical mass).
To achieve this objective, it is necessary to spend less by simplifying the administrative rules;
to spend better by concentrating the budget on investments and less on operations;
by refocusing the State on sovereign functions and by reforming the territorial "millefeuille" to make decentralization more effective.
This type of social movement walks on a tightrope like a tightrope walker.
Christophe Assens
On November 19, only a few hundred people had gathered in Paris. Has the absence of a leader and structure condemned the
"
yellow vests
"
to impotence?
The movement of the "yellow vests" is atypical because it is self-organized, without a leader, like the musicians of a jazz orchestra who detach themselves from their scores to improvise music together, adjusting their instrument to that of others, in a harmonious way.
This type of social movement walks on a wire like a tightrope walker: if it is only carried by social networks and other communication tools as unifying elements, it risks losing common sense and sinking into oblivion;
if he is too directive about what to do, he risks losing his spontaneity and disappointing his supporters.
This is what happened on several occasions,
when the social discontent embodied by the "yellow vests" was taken over by protesting unions and political parties, causing it to lose its legitimacy with the radical leaders.
Finally, there is nothing new in politics since the quote from Cardinal de Retz:
“We only get out of ambiguity to our detriment”
.
This call is part of a busy social context, between the strike of liberal doctors, the social movements to come to protest against the pension reform... can we imagine that very different social bodies (leftist unions, independents...) are demonstrating together or is our society too archipelago for that?
A matter of major concern for internal security, a small group of citizens can paralyze the country to the rhythm of social demands: train conductors during the holiday season, oil refinery workers blocking supply in gas stations, the strike of liberal doctors contributing to the overcrowding of the emergency services at the hospital.
These social movements are inspired by the phenomenon of "yellow vests", without adhering to it, by their spontaneous side, the absence of a leader, the anonymity of the crowd.
They aspire to circumvent intermediate bodies such as unions, to make the demands of the base heard, without filter, from coordination / consultation on social networks.
This type of manifestation can recur at any time, but sporadically, as the reflection of an increasingly fragmented society, where individualism takes the form of communitarianism.
There is no common front for the social struggle which would be embodied by the "yellow vests", but categorical and corporatist movements which do not need to consult each other, to paralyze the country in turn.
Spontaneous demonstrations have the particularity of being based on a very strong social mimicry which compensates for the absence of a leader.
Christophe Assens
By taking a step back from current events, it is indeed possible to note that the Republic is weakened in its foundations relating to freedom, equality, and fraternity: freedom is undermined by galloping bureaucracy;
equality is subject to the precautionary principle and therefore to minorities who dictate choices to the majority;
fraternity is diluted in community withdrawal and the loss of national unity.
Can too many demonstrations benefit the executive?
Spontaneous demonstrations have the particularity of being based on a very strong social mimicry which compensates for the absence of a leader.
The demonstration grows when everyone copies the behavior of the neighbor and thus participates in influencing those who remain outside the movement to join it.
I copy therefore I am!
At this stage, social networks and traditional media play a very important role in serving as a sounding board and giving momentum to these social movements which feed on a viral contagion of protest.
However, if other hot topics hit the media at the same time, viral contagion may not occur, due to the lack of a ripple effect.
In other words, to reduce the magnitude of
a social demonstration, the executive can create a diversion by diverting public opinion towards other topical subjects, by upsetting the legislative agenda, or by producing unexpected announcement effects in the media.
Finally, in the event of a serious crisis, the executive can also dissolve the national assembly, like a last card to play, like a joker that is exhibited at the very last end.
