Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will celebrate in style the 20th anniversary of the day he first assumed power in Brazil: returning to the presidency of the Republic.
But between that New Year of 2003 and this January 1, 2023, the most populous country in Latin America and the veteran leftist have changed notably.
Although he loves to repeat old slogans and has surrounded himself with many comrades from the old days, Brazil today has undergone profound transformations.
To begin with, there are two decades of drought in the World Cup.
It's not just that Pelé, whom Brazil reveres as the greatest soccer player in history, died at the age of 82, but two decades ago Lula took over a country that had just won its fifth World Cup, more than any other team.
An unquestionable triumph in one of the few issues that really unites this huge, unequal and, now, also polarized country.
No one has equaled that record.
But the dream of expanding it now with a sixth cup in Qatar, at the gates of the third Government of.
Lula, vanished in the quarterfinals in the agonizing penalty shootout.
In a 2009 photo, Lula and Pelé, together with the Brazilian delegation, celebrate having won the contest for Rio to host the 2016 Olympic Games.CHARLES DHARAPAK (AFP)
From sweeping to the hardest-fought victory
Lula's first victory in the presidential elections (after three defeats) was very comfortable.
He swept 61% of the vote.
In other words, he took a 23-point advantage in the second round over his opponent, José Serra.
And territorially, it was an overwhelming triumph.
He was first in all the states with the sole exception of Alagoas.
This time, he narrowly won, by 1.8 points over Bolsonaro.
Brazil is divided into two halves, the north is with Lula and the south with the far-right, who also dominates Congress.
A very close victory, and that Lula did not compete alone with the Workers' Party (PT) but at the head of a broad and ideologically diverse coalition forged with former adversaries turned allies in the name of democracy.
From the commodity boom to globalized inflation
By 2003, the outgoing president, Fernando Henrique Cardoso, had managed to tame hyperinflation.
After the 2,000% rise in prices recorded in the mid-1990s, Cardoso, who was Minister of Finance, launched the so-called Real Plan, a stabilization program that Lula continued and to which it is common to attribute part of the Party's economic success. from the workers.
When Lula gave his first speech as president, the CPI rose close to 10%, a figure considered low at the time given the precedents.
Then came the commodity boom.
The voracity of China shot up prices and the American producing countries experienced a decade of general prosperity.
When Lula left the Government, in 2010, the number of poor had decreased from 50 million to 29.9 million.
Homeless people queue to receive a plate of food on a street in São Paulo, Brazil, on October 21, 2022. Lela Beltrão
The international context could not be more different now.
The new government will no longer have the tailwind of raw materials, while the instability derived from the war in Ukraine persists.
Inflation has gone global and energy prices have skyrocketed.
A third of Brazilians were poor last year, compared to 25% in 2020. Annualized inflation to November was 6%.
Lula has said that his priority will be to reduce poverty, as he did in his first two terms.
From the letter to the Brazilian people to the letter to the evangelicals
Months before his fourth attempt to win the general elections, Lula gave birth to the so-called
Letter to the Brazilian people
, a letter designed to calm the enormous restlessness of the markets and economic power.
In addition, the candidate chose a businessman as number two, who later became his vice president.
This time the most intense fears came from a different direction.
And the founder of the Workers' Party has had to address a letter to evangelicals in which he declares that he is personally against abortion and promises not to use religion for partisan purposes.
The leftist had enormous reluctance before deciding to make the letter public, but it is a reflection of the growing social and political power of the evangelical churches, whose leaders bet in a majority way on Bolsonaro.
Lula receives the prayer of David Mikami, 9 years old, during the presentation of his letter to the evangelicals. Sebastiao Moreira (EFE)
Diplomacy: from the G20 and the BRICS to isolation
During a G20, President Barack Obama was speaking with one of his counterparts when the American pointed to Lula da Silva, who was coming over to say hello.
Obama then told his interlocutor: “This is the man.
I love this guy".
The Brazilian was in the twilight of his mandate and had already turned Brazil and his own figure into registered trademarks of international diplomacy.
It wasn't too complicated.
Cardoso, his predecessor, was a respected politician and the world already saw Brazil as a rising power.
But the leap forward was with Lula.
The South American giant joined the BRICs, the select group of emerging countries that included Russia, China and India, and no one doubted that Lula was "the man", as Obama said.
Brazil brought the World Cup and the Olympic Games.
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