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Erdogan and Assad are groping their way to reconciliation, and the Kurds may pay the price - voila! news

2022-12-31T19:45:35.173Z


After a disconnection of more than a decade, the defense ministers of Turkey and Syria met in Moscow, wanting to prevent another Turkish invasion. Erdogan is tired of the millions of Syrian refugees oppressing his economy and wants to stifle Kurdish autonomy on his border. For the Kremlin, reconciliation between the bitter enemies would be a diplomatic achievement


Intersection of geopolitical interests.

Assad and Erdogan in Aleppo, 2011 (Photo: Reuters)

Turkey has been the biggest enemy of the Assad regime in Syria since the outbreak of the war more than a decade ago, and remained on the side of the rebels even when all their other supporters gave up and withdrew their hands from the conflict.

However, in recent months there has been a turning point in the Erdogan administration's relationship with Damascus, and the thaw in relations between the two neighbors was manifested in a high-level meeting between their defense ministers that took place this week under the auspices of Moscow, for the first time since the beginning of the conflict.



For many years, Turkey opened its doors to Syrian refugees who fled the horrors of the war, but the swelling of this population - about 3.7 million people, more than any other country - has become a burden for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The warm welcome has been replaced by growing public resentment in light of Turkey's deep economic crisis, and as the presidential elections draw closer, Erdogan wants to put an end to the problem.



On the table is a threat to launch a new operation against the Kurds in northern Syria, ostensibly to fight the armed organizations on the Turkish border, but in practice also to free up space for the resettlement of Syrian refugees.

In recent years, Erdogan has already completed three military operations against the Kurdish forces, supported by the United States, and in the areas from which they were repelled, opposition organizations backed by the Turkish army were established.

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In recent weeks, the attacks of the Turkish army against the Kurdish forces in northern Syria have increased, as a response to the deadly attack in Istanbul last month.

Seeking to dissuade Ankara from a new action that would further damage its prestige, Moscow encouraged it and Damascus to open a dialogue.

Russia, immersed up to its neck in its war in Ukraine, has in recent months reduced the scope of its forces in Syria, and any new Turkish operation would weaken its position as the main tone-setter in the war in Syria in which many foreign countries are involved.



Therefore, for the Kremlin, normalization of relations between Syria and Turkey is the most preferred outcome.

After a series of meetings in recent months between the intelligence chiefs of Turkey and Syria, the contacts advanced one more step and on Wednesday it was already the defense ministers who started the exploration phase.

The host, Russia's disgraced defense minister Sergei Shoigu, got some satisfaction playing the role of the agreeable broker and the closing statements delivered after the meeting were positive.



"The talks dealt with the way in which the Turkish side can act in cooperation against terrorist organizations such as the YPG and ISIS in order to ensure the territorial integrity of Syria and the war against terrorism," a senior Turkish official concluded the meeting, without identifying himself.

The source, who spoke to the Reuters news agency, added that "Turkey emphasized that its top priority is border security."

Syria's Ministry of Defense issued a similar statement, and those involved agreed to continue their talks.

The Kurds have no one to trust but themselves.

A demonstration in Frankfurt against Turkey's attacks in Syria and Iraq (Photo: Reuters)

All three countries have interests in reconciliation.

Erdogan, who even expresses a willingness to meet with Assad - whom he previously described as a butcher and considered an obstacle to any reconciliation - wants to avoid another military adventure in light of the economic troubles at home.

If Russia and Syria help him keep the Kurds away from the border, what good.

For Assad, whose rule many countries in the region have begun to recognize again in recent years, this will be a major diplomatic victory and a heavy blow to the remnants of the armed opposition against his regime.

And for Russian President Vladimir Putin, normalization between Turkey and Syria will validate his being the owner of the region.



It is not for nothing that residents of the last strongholds of the rebels in Idlib protested against the thaw in relations between Damascus and Ankara, fearing that the latter would abandon them to their fate.

Without the intervention of the Turkish army and its presence on the ground, it is likely that the Syrian and Russian armies would have subdued the district with great brutality, as they did in Daraa, Homs, Damascus and Aleppo.



Those who are expected to lose the most from the negotiations between Assad and Erdogan are the Kurdish forces, who established an autonomous government in northern Syria under the auspices of the war and their success in the fight against ISIS.

Although they enjoy the support of the coalition led by the United States in their operations against the remnants of the terrorist organization, Washington has not been able to stop Ankara from launching its previous operations.

Turkey refuses to heed the requests of the United States, which it accuses of supporting terrorist organizations.

Erdogan went on 3 military operations against the Kurds in recent years.

Turkish armored personnel carriers near the border, November (Photo: Reuters)

Turkey considers the People's Protection Units (YPG), the Kurdish militia in Syria, part of the Kurdish underground in its territory (PKK), while the United States and Western countries make the distinction.

The Kurds, one of the unlucky minorities in the Middle East, know once again that they have no one to trust but themselves.

Assad did let them establish an autonomous government throughout the years of war and deal with the threat of ISIS, but now the significant threat has been removed and he will not hesitate to sacrifice the Kurds for the sake of another crack in the wall of international isolation.



After the tripartite meeting, the United States expressed opposition to the reconciliation processes between Turkey and the "cruel dictator Bashar Assad", but its influence on the state of affairs on the ground is limited.

Washington also needs Ankara, its NATO partner, in conveying messages to Moscow, with whom most of the contact has been severed since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Turkey brokered an agreement between Russia and Ukraine for grain shipments from Ukrainian ports, and was praised for this by the Biden administration.



If Erdogan and Assad do renew relations, which before the war had reached the point of Turkish mediation attempts between Israel and Syria, it would be another compromise by the Turkish president in recent years.

Erdogan, who supported the "Muslim Brotherhood" camp in the countries that experienced the "Arab Spring", made many enemies in the countries of the region, but since the outbreak of the Corona epidemic, he has put ideology aside in favor of the economy that shakes his chair.



In the last two years, he renewed relations with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt and reconciled with Israel.

It is not impossible that in the near future Erdogan and Assad will hold a meeting, which until recently was unimaginable to think about, out of the intersection of interests and geopolitical cynicism at the expense of the millions of refugees and the dead.

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  • Recep Tayyip Erdogan

  • Bashar Al Assad

  • Russia

  • Kurds

  • The war in Syria

Source: walla

All news articles on 2022-12-31

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