Predictions abound by astrologers and astronomers usually at the end of each year, and within these expectations we mention the expectations of the (International Monetary Fund IMF), so will it be added to the list of astrologers?!Where most of his previous expectations were not correct, and among his expectations for the year 2023 is that the global economy for the first time exceeds $ 100 trillion, but it is moving from bad to worse, approaching a state of recession and economic contraction and then inflationary stagnation, and it is dominated by a state of uncertainty and the coming year will be darker. From the year 2022 for several reasons, including the decline in [global growth rates, the supply chain and supplies, the labor market, food and living security, the effectiveness of the work of the productive and service economic sectors, investments, foreign trade, consumption rates, the work of social protection networks, etc.], and on the other hand, the increase in [hot spots of tension and imbalances economic, price level, borrowing costs, inflation rates, unemployment, interest, budget deficits, balance of payments, environmental problems, gas emissions, repercussions of the energy crisis, epidemics, food, economic closures, sovereign debt, contradictions between monetary and fiscal policies, and price fluctuationsGlobal exchange, internal and external indebtedness, bad or doubtful debts, the gap between income and the cost of living, social pressures, the work of global stock exchanges, stock prices, trade wars, its horizontal expansion and its vertical deepening...etc.
Based on the foregoing, the Fund reduced its forecast for the global economic growth rate from 2.9% to 2.7%, but recently returned and confirmed by the Fund Manager (Kri Stallina Gore Jiva) that the rate may fall below 2%, and the Fund's report confirms that each of the states The United States, Europe, China and Russia have a total output of more than 76% of the global output, and the order of their outputs for the year 2022 in trillions of dollars was as follows [United States 25 - China 20 - Japan 5 - Germany 4 - Britain 4 - India 3 - France 4 - Canada 2 – Italy 2 – Brazil 2 – Russia 2 .. etc.], and this means that the continuation of the contradictions between these countries will lead to an increase in global economic problems.It turns out that the value of the American gross domestic product is equivalent to 25% of the value of the global gross domestic product, which is equivalent to 10 times the value of the total gross product of the entire 54 African countries with a population of more than 1.4 billion, noting that the population of the United States of America is 335 million, at a rate 4% of the world's population, while China ranked second with an output of 20 trillion, an increase of 3 trillion dollars over the year 2021, knowing that its population is 1.4 billion, equivalent to approximately 25% of the world's population, but if China continues its highest growth rate globally since Its implementation of the economic and administrative reform program since 1978 until now, so we expect it to occupy the throne of the global economy during the next five years, despite its siege and attempts to drain it from Western countries, as it did with Russia and the exploitation of the (Taiwan Island) issue? Here we ask:Will the IMF come out from under the American and European cloaks and the dominance of the dollar and the euro and establish considerations for the eastern alliances (Russia, China and Iran) and others opposed to the NATO alliance and the seven industrialized countries, and then the circle of peace will expand and the global economic situation will improve?
With our conviction, Western (economic liberalism) moves from crisis to crisis because of its upward tendencies towards the concentration of capital at the expense of social considerations, while the success of the Russian approach (state capitalism) and the Chinese approach (Chinese private social market economy) has proven successful with China's insistence on its approach through [ Supporting the productive and agricultural economy and consolidating a work culture based on the renewed Confucian faith and implementing its project (the Belt and Road), which connects 140 countries to each other from China and includes so far 2,600 projects at a cost of 3.7 trillion dollars and on the basis of (win-win) and continues to increase competitiveness Investing in human cadres, reducing waste, and positive openness to global markets..etc.] In our opinion, the global economy is at a crossroads, and (people's misfortunes may be benefits for people), and just as the Fund's expectations were incorrect in anticipating previous global crises, will they be the same for the coming year?
Note that economic expectations are based on linking (cause to effect) or (cause to effect), and the West is no longer the economic center of the world, according to the testimony of the Director of the Monetary Fund that 40% of the global growth rate is due to China.