Since the beginning of 2022, affected by the fluctuations in the stock and bond markets, the performance of MPF has been unsatisfactory. Although there was a rebound in November, the return in December was close to zero. From the beginning of the year to December 23, it still recorded a loss of more than 183.7 billion yuan, with a per capita book loss More than 40,000 yuan.
As for the deployment outlook for next year, some experts believe that the gradual optimization of the zero-clearing policy in the mainland in the near future will not help its own economy, but it is expected to benefit the surrounding Asian economies and stock markets. Consider switching funds to invest more in Asia, including Hong Kong stock market funds.
The annual per capita book loss is about 40,000 yuan
According to the data provided by Morningstar to "Hong Kong 01", driven by the rebound of the Chinese and Hong Kong stock markets in November, the monthly return reached 9.85%. %.
From the beginning of this year to the 23rd, the average return fell by 15.55%.
In terms of annual return, it is the worst performance since 2008.
Simply based on the total assets of the MPF at the end of March of 1,181.795 billion yuan, the loss from the beginning of the year to December 23 was 183.769 billion yuan. Based on the total number of plan members of 4.586 million, the per capita book loss is about 40,000 yuan.
Except for positive returns in May, July, November and December in 2022, all other months will have negative returns.
From the beginning of this year to December 23, except for Hong Kong dollar monetary funds investing in short-term bank deposits, all others recorded negative returns.
The worst performer was China and Greater China Equity Fund, with an average return of 24.16%, followed by Asian stocks (excluding Japan), with an average return of 22.15%.
Lei Zhihai predicts that the switch to mainland China will encourage people to travel, which will greatly benefit the tourism and economy of surrounding Asia. Therefore, he is optimistic about the performance of the overall Asian stock market, including Hong Kong stocks, next year.
Lei Zhihai: Switching to the mainland is more beneficial to the Asian economy
Lei Zhihai, Chief Investment Director of Asset Management Group, said that since 2022, the performance of MPF has been unsatisfactory, but now is a good time for redeployment, and more funds can be invested in lower-risk funds such as conservative funds for wage earners when the market falls. Consider switching funds to invest more in stock market funds.
Lei Zhihai continued that the mainland has gradually optimized the zero-clearing policy in the near future, but it is expected that there will be a greater chance that it will be similar to the situation after the implementation of 0+3 in Hong Kong earlier. There are not too many visitors, and the economic help for itself is limited, but it will encourage them. It will greatly benefit the tourism industry and economy of surrounding Asia.
Therefore, he is optimistic about the performance of the overall Asian stock market, including Hong Kong stocks, next year.
He predicts that the Hang Seng Index will rise to a high of 24,000 to 26,000 points in 2023. In addition to considering the fundamental positive factors brought about by the relaxation of the zero-clearing policy, there is also the fact that the current earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio of the Hong Kong stock market are not the lowest in 30 years. Rebound demand.
Lei Zhihai is optimistic about US stocks, saying that national income and consumption are still stable.
In addition to Asian stock markets, Lei Zhihai is also optimistic about US stocks.
He said that although the market expects that the United States has a greater chance of entering a recession in 2023, the chance is expected to be relatively small, mainly because the decline in inflationary pressure will lead to a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes, and the recent economic data released by the United States shows that although the manufacturing industry is slightly There has been a slowdown, but national income and consumption remain solid.
However, he is more cautious about the outlook of the European stock market. He believes that the energy shortage caused by the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine is lingering and is expected to still plague the market.
As for the bond market, although the U.S. is expected to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, which will help the bond market, the U.S. will still shrink its balance sheet and sell bonds to the market, so the outlook for the bond market is not optimistic.
Wang Yulin, executive director of GUM, said that in the medium and long term, he will be more optimistic about the performance of the Greater China stock market. It is expected that after China relaxes the quarantine policy, although there will be a rebound in the epidemic, it is still expected to maintain the relaxation trend and the economic growth momentum will remain strong.
Wang Yulin: I am more optimistic about the performance of the Greater China stock market
Wang Yulin, executive director of GUM, said that in the first half of 2023, it is expected that the overall stock market will continue to fluctuate due to the continuous impact of US interest rate hikes, and it is expected to stabilize in the second half of the year when the US is expected to stop raising interest rates.
However, in the medium and long term, we will be more optimistic about the performance of the Greater China stock market. It is expected that after China relaxes the quarantine policy, although there will be a rebound in the epidemic, it is expected to continue to relax and the economic growth momentum will remain strong.
Wang Yulin is also not optimistic about European stocks and bond investments, and believes that even if the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has eased, energy shortages will still be a long-term problem to be faced.
In terms of bond investment, since the US is still expected to raise interest rates until at least the first half of next year, it is expected that there will still be a greater chance of negative returns for the whole year.
Lin Yiming said that it is recommended to intend to deploy wage earners including China and Hong Kong stock market MPF funds, and the evaluation will be made at the end of January during the Spring Festival travel season, because factors such as the epidemic situation may rebound during the Spring Festival travel season.
Lin Yiming: During the Spring Festival travel season, the epidemic may rebound and call for wage earners to wait and see
Veteran investor Lin Yiming said that he did not dare to say whether the worst performance of MPF has passed, mainly because the epidemic situation in China and Hong Kong has not become clear. The evaluation will be made only during the Spring Festival travel season, because factors such as the possibility of a rebound in the epidemic during the Spring Festival travel season are considered.
Lin Yiming had previously stated that he was bearish on Hong Kong stocks indefinitely, and the Hang Seng Index has rebounded recently, but he has not made relevant arrangements.
Lin Yiming said that due to the continued interest rate hikes in the United States and the fact that the foreign capital that has withdrawn from Hong Kong stocks earlier will not return completely in the short term, it is believed that the Hang Seng Index has a greater chance of developing horizontally above 20,000 points in the short to medium term.
As for other global stock markets, experts are more optimistic about US stocks.
Lin Yiming said that compared with MPF funds that include China and Hong Kong stock markets, he is more optimistic about global stock funds that include U.S. stocks. In addition to not being affected by the uncertainties of the mainland epidemic, the current U.S. economy is still stable. After inflation falls to 4%, it is expected to increase. The pace of interest rate will further slow down or stop.
MPF｜Per capita loss of more than 60,000 during the year The industry calls for long-term returns and opposes making contributions as the first installment. The MPF performance was the worst in 2008, and the wage earners lost a total of 17,000 floors｜2022 financial dark event GUM: In November, MPF members turned from defense to offense, and nearly 3 billion yuan flowed into US and Hong Kong stock funds