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Expert gives gloomy outlook: why the Ukraine war will keep the world under control in 2023

2023-01-01T04:03:43.276Z


Expert gives gloomy outlook: why the Ukraine war will keep the world under control in 2023 Created: 01/01/2023 04:53 By: Jens Kiffmeier Permanent conflict instead of a quick end: The war with Russia will keep Ukraine busy beyond the spring of 2023. Three scenarios are conceivable. A view. Kyiv/Moscow – The war year 2022 is coming to an end. But Ukraine will remain a trouble spot in 2023. Despi


Expert gives gloomy outlook: why the Ukraine war will keep the world under control in 2023

Created: 01/01/2023 04:53

By: Jens Kiffmeier

Permanent conflict instead of a quick end: The war with Russia will keep Ukraine busy beyond the spring of 2023.

Three scenarios are conceivable.

A view.

Kyiv/Moscow – The war year 2022 is coming to an end.

But Ukraine will remain a trouble spot in 2023.

Despite major setbacks in Russia, experts warn against over-optimism.

Security expert Claudia Major now makes a rather gloomy forecast for the coming months:

"The war will last a long time," prophesied the head of research at the Foundation for Science and Politics (SWP).

Even in the event of a military defeat for President Vladimir Putin, lasting peace is still a long way off.

But what threatens Europe?

Various scenarios are conceivable.

A look at the turn of the year.   

War in Ukraine: there is little hope of an end in spring 2023 – an outlook

In the past few weeks, allegedly high losses and setbacks for Russia had fueled hopes of a quick end to the Ukraine war.

With a counter-offensive, Ukraine pushed the attackers' troops far back in Donbass - and in doing so repeatedly fueled rumors of Putin's fall.

While the Russian army suffered from a lack of equipment and supply problems, the defenders made significant gains in terrain, especially in the strategically important Cherson region.

Continues to be uncompromising in the Ukraine war: Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

© Sergey Guneev/Libkos/dpa/Montage

Some observers, such as Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, therefore no longer rule out an end to the conflict from spring 2023.

The German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) has already predicted a defeat on the battlefield for Putin.

End of war in sight?

Ukraine needs arms supply for military victory in fight against Russia

But Claudia Major is a little more reserved in this regard.

In principle, a military victory for Ukraine is certainly possible, she told the

editorial network Germany

(RND) in an interview.

But for that, the Ukrainian troops would need significantly more military help from Western politicians.

Without additional heavy weapons such as modern armored personnel carriers, drones, artillery and air defense systems, a definitive turnaround in the war cannot be achieved.

"I don't expect the war to end next year if our military support remains at the same level as before," the security expert clarified.

But in the end it didn't look like western arms deliveries on a large scale.

The US held out the prospect of handing over modern Patriot anti-missile systems to Ukraine.

But nothing will come from Germany for the time being.

Although the FDP, together with the Union, repeatedly insists on the delivery of the Leopard 2 main battle tank, the SPD around Chancellor Olaf Scholz is reluctant.

The Social Democrats fear too much interference in the conflict and point out that the Bundeswehr itself is at the limit.

So far, the Ministry of Defense had already made Cheetah armored personnel carriers, the Panzerhaubitze 2000 and the Iris-T missile defense system available to Ukraine for national defense.

In the eyes of the SPD, in contrast to the Leopard 2 tank, these are defensive weapons.

Scenarios for the Ukraine war: This is how the conflict could end in spring 2023 – or not

But theoretically there could be another option for a quick end to the Ukraine war: a coup against Putin.

Speculations about a fall keep popping up.

But despite the many setbacks in the Donbass, Russia expert Gerhard Mangott from the University of Innsbruck sees too little movement for a palace revolt in the Kremlin.

"But there is currently no sign of major disagreement in the Russian leadership," he told

RND

.

Especially since a potential successor to Putin would probably not be an advocate of an end to the war in Ukraine.

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What are Zelenskyy and Putin planning?

Opponents rule out peace negotiations

A negotiated peace would be scenario three.

But this is also considered unrealistic.

On the one hand, Russia does not want to deviate from its war aims.

Just a few days ago, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was still insisting on occupying the eastern Ukrainian regions and the Crimean peninsula.

And on the other hand, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj has repeatedly dictated the immutable conditions for peace negotiations to his opponent Putin: a complete withdrawal from the entire Ukraine and extensive reparation payments for the war damage incurred.

Otherwise, the solution to the conflict will be sought on the battlefield.



A lasting solution to the Ukraine war still seems difficult to imagine.

Even if the warring parties agree to a cessation of hostilities, the political conflict over national borders and compensation payments would continue to cause unrest.

In that case, Russia would also be negotiating from a position of weakness.

And this would also continue to have devastating effects on Europe and Germany.

Security expert Major is convinced of that.

Gloomy outlook: Ukraine war could unleash further wildfires in Europe

"Any weakening of Russia and the possible break-up of this multi-ethnic state will have an enormously destabilizing effect on Europe and beyond," the scientist warned.

In the event of a military defeat in the Ukraine war, Putin's empire in Eastern Europe and Central Asia would no longer be perceived as a leading power.

But what happens then?

States could feel encouraged to make their own conquests, such as Azerbaijan's conflict with Armenia, which could then threaten further fires in Europe.

No good prospects for the year 2023. (

jkf

)

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2023-01-01

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