Ex-Nato general expects "in early summer with a standstill" in the Ukraine war

Created: 01/02/2023 12:27 p.m

By: Yannick Hanke

Will the Ukraine war end in 2023?

According to an ex-NATO general, a ceasefire could come in early summer.

A historian even sees the near end.

Kyiv/London/Moscow – War has been raging in Ukraine for more than ten months.

At the end of February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade.

There is still no end in sight.

But there could be a ceasefire in early summer 2023.

At least when it comes to ex-NATO general Hans-Lothar Domröse.

Is the end of the Ukraine war near?

Ex-Nato general expects at least a ceasefire in early summer 2023

In the course of the new year, Domröse expects a ceasefire in view of the Ukraine war.

According to the former NATO general, both Ukraine and Russia would launch another offensive in the coming months in order to achieve their military goals as far as possible.

But as early as early summer there could be a standstill, Domröse said to the newspapers of the

.

Former NATO general Hans-Lothar Domröse expects a ceasefire in the Ukraine war in early summer 2023.

© dpa/imago/Montage

Then Russia and Ukraine would realize that fighting on made no sense if it was no longer possible to gain ground.

"That would be the moment for armistice negotiations," says Domröse, who was also an army general in the Bundeswehr.

For him, the only solution that remains is a negotiated solution that is acceptable to both sides.

Ukraine war: Ex-Nato general and security expert predict negotiations and ceasefire

As one of the concrete solutions, Domröse considers it possible that the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi renounces his demand to immediately reintegrate the areas occupied by Russia, such as Crimea, into Ukraine.

Rather, a transitional period should be agreed.

That would have happened when Hong Kong was handed over to China.

At that time, the transition period was 50 years.

András Rácz shares Domröse's assessment.

The Russia and security expert from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) also expects negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.

This would result in a ceasefire, "with hopefully no more fighting, but in any case much less fighting," said Rácz.

Minsk agreement was supposed to settle conflict between Ukraine and Russia – but “fighting continued”

The fact that the presidential elections in Russia are due in 2024 could also fuel hopes that the war in Ukraine will end soon.

In Rácz's view, it is unlikely that Russia will seek an intensive war before or during this election.

"I expect that Russia will therefore want to reduce the intensity of the fighting in the course of the year.

Also because the supply problems of the Russian army are likely to increase in the summer".

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What is the Minsk Agreement?

The Minsk Agreement, signed in 2015, is named after the Belarusian capital.

The agreement brokered by Germany and France was intended to bring peace to Ukraine.

Specifically, a distinction is made between Minsk I and Minsk II.

Both agreements were signed in the Belarusian city of Minsk.

When people talk about the Minsk Agreement today, they usually mean Minsk II.

At the time, then-Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU), then-French President François Hollande, and Russian President Vladimir Putin were involved in the so-called set of measures to implement the Minsk agreements

and then-Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.

Minsk II expanded the first agreement by another point to a total of 13 points.

These include, for example, the withdrawal of heavy weapons from both sides, the withdrawal of all foreign mercenaries and troops from eastern Ukraine, and the restoration of full control of the Ukrainian-Russian state border by Ukraine.

Rácz recalled that a ceasefire had already been agreed several times under the Minsk Agreement.

Although the intensity of the fighting had decreased at that time, it did not end.

"It was a limited war in which both sides had diplomatic relations, there was trade and energy supplies - and yet the fighting went on," says the security expert.

And in a year it will be a limited war again.

End of the Ukraine war: According to historians, Russia's invasion will be "over in half a year"

British historian Ian Kershaw sees it differently.

For him it is clear that the Ukraine war is "over in half a year".

According to Kershaw, the war in Ukraine will end in the summer of 2023.

In an interview with the

, the 79-year-old spoke of a new, possible offensive by the “Ukrainians with Western support”.

In the spring it could already be seen whether the attackers from Russia can be pushed back.

And "if that's the case, then by spring or summer we could be on our way to one solution or the other."

In general, the "current level of attrition is difficult for both sides to bear," said political observer Kershaw.

The Briton speaks of signs of wear and tear in the Ukraine war, which is why he suspects "that the war will be over in six months".

In the meantime, Vladimir Putin would find himself in a situation that he never foresaw, the historian said.

Russia's president would now find himself in a war "which he cannot win and which is very costly and harmful".

"Russia is now isolated": How the Ukraine war is damaging Moscow in the long term

But now it remains to be seen in what condition the Russian and Ukrainian armed forces will be at the end of this winter.

Kershaw's assessment: "It will be a very hard winter for Ukraine, but of course also for many Russians".

One must also see that the Ukraine war has long-term consequences for Moscow.

“Russia is now isolated, at least in Europe.

In that sense, the decision to invade Ukraine was an expensive decision.

It will change Europe, how exactly is not yet foreseeable,” the historian puts it.

But what is already clear to Kershaw: "The war has already imposed a new energy policy on us and brought about a recession".