State elections 2023: Some political careers are at stake – does Scholz have to change his minister?
Created: 2023-01-02 15:39
By: Markus Hofstetter
In 2023 there will be elections in Berlin, Bremen, Hesse and Bavaria.
For some prominent politicians, it could mean anything.
Munich – The year 2022 already came with a big surprise at the first state election.
Anke Rehlinger won an absolute majority for the SPD in the Saarland elections on March 27.
She replaced CDU Prime Minister Tobias Hans.
Then it was time for the incumbents: Daniel Günther and Hendrik Wüst in North Rhine-Westphalia won for the CDU in Schleswig-Holstein.
In Lower Saxony, Stephan Weil continues to hold the reins for the SPD.
In 2023 things will continue seamlessly, with a total of four elections taking place in Germany, one of which will be a repeat from 2021.
The elections can be decisive for the careers of some politicians.
Election to the House of Representatives in Berlin on February 12, 2023: Repeat due to chaos in the polling stations
The election round begins on February 12 in Berlin, on which date the elections to the House of Representatives and to the twelve district assemblies will be repeated.
This was preceded by a judgment by the Berlin Constitutional Court, which found serious errors in the September 26, 2021 elections.
These include, among other things, too few ballot papers, some of which were also distributed incorrectly.
The SPD of Governing Mayor Franziska Giffey will probably be in a neck-and-neck race with the CDU and the Greens.
© Britta Pedersen/dpa/archive image
Since the vote is not a new election, the same candidates will stand as in 2021. Franziska Giffey's SPD was able to prevail two years ago by around three percentage points ahead of the Greens and the CDU and the Greens.
She currently governs in a coalition with the Greens and the Left.
However, it is uncertain whether the Social Democrats will be able to retain power in the Red City Hall.
A recent survey puts the SPD in first place, level with the CDU, but in other surveys the Greens and the Christian Democrats were just ahead.
So it all looks like a head-to-head race between the three parties.
However, if Giffey is left behind, her political career is probably on the brink.
Citizenship elections in Bremen on May 14, 2023: is the CDU grinding down the red stronghold again?
Since the last election in 2019, Bremen has been governed by a three-party coalition of SPD, Greens and Left under SPD Mayor Andreas Bovenschulte.
He is again in the election as his party's top candidate, his challenger from the CDU is the President of the Parliament, Frank Imhoff.
The Greens' top candidate is Climate Protection Senator Maike Schaefer.
The Hanseatic city is a traditional stronghold of the SPD, which has ruled there since the founding of the Federal Republic.
Four years ago, however, it was replaced as the strongest force for the first time by the CDU, which came to 26.7 percent.
However, he subsequently failed to form a government.
Despite high losses (down eight percentage points to 24.9 percent), the SPD was able to form a government again.
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Andreas Bovenschulte (SPD), Mayor of Bremen, speaks.
© Hauke-Christian Dittrich/dpa/archive image
It is difficult to say what the current mood is, because the last survey is more than six months old.
At that time, the SPD was clearly ahead with 30 percent.
The Christian Democrats came to 22 percent, the Greens to 21 percent.
The left was seen at eight percent, followed by the FDP and AfD.
If it stays that way, Bovenschulte could even continue to govern in a two-coalition.
State elections in Bavaria on October 8, 2023: How big will the CSU be ahead?
Bavaria, the second largest federal state in terms of population, will elect a new state parliament on October 8th.
The Free State is currently governed by a coalition of CSU and Free Voters led by Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU).
The CSU can definitely count on an election victory, in all polls the lead over the Greens as the second strongest force is huge.
Bavaria's Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) © Sven Hoppe/dpa
Only the absolute majority that used to be taken for granted seems difficult to achieve, which is why Söder is counting on continuing the coalition with the Free Voters.
In the polls, the CSU is stable at around 40 percent, while the Greens remain at 20 percent.
Free voters, SPD and AfD are around ten percent, the FDP threatens to be thrown out of the state parliament again.
A good election result for the CSU could also have an impact on the 2025 federal election.
Söder could reconsider running for Chancellor.
Although he has rejected this project in the past, this does not have to be final.
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State elections in Hesse in autumn 2023: does Interior Minister Faeser dare to switch to state politics?
CDU Prime Minister Boris Rhein faces the vote for the first time.
He took over the office at the end of May 2022 from his predecessor and party colleague Volker Bouffier, who resigned after twelve years.
The Greens' coalition partner has also unofficially announced the top candidate, Economics Minister and Rhein's deputy Tarek Al-Wazir.
Will Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) switch to state politics?
© Kay Nietfeld/dpa/Archive
In the SPD, Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is the most promising candidate - but it is still uncertain whether she will stand.
But even with Faeser, a clear upward trend is anything but certain: According to a survey by
Hessischer Rundfunk
, she would lose to both Rhein and Al-Wazir in a direct election.
However, should Faeser decide to campaign, it would have a direct impact on the federal government: Chancellor Olaf Scholz could possibly replace some ministers.
In a recent poll, the CDU was 27 percent ahead of the SPD and the Greens, each with 22 percent.
The FDP came to six percent, the AfD to twelve percent.
The left, which is comparatively strong in Hesse, is threatened with a debacle, and with three percent it could miss re-entering parliament.
