By Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong -
NBC News
WASHINGTON — The United States will have a divided government starting this Tuesday, as Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives on January 3.
Meanwhile, the Democrats will have an expanded majority of 51 seats in the Senate and, with Joe Biden in power, will also control the presidency.
As recent decades have shown, divided control of Congress tends
to further complicate legislative decision-making, especially in the midst of so much polarization and political acrimony.
This division will also be the backdrop for the 2024 presidential election.
We explore some of the political battles coming up on Capitol Hill for 2023.
Who will replace Nancy Pelosi?
Will Kevin McCarthy be able to succeed Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House of Representatives?
McCarthy, a Republican from California, is facing a rebellion by a band of militant conservatives who have vowed to deny him the presidency of that chamber when they take their first vote in the new Congress on Tuesday.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California.
Demetrius Freeman/The Washington Post via Getty Images
If those opponents, led by Reps. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., and Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., keep their word, they could take the vote to multiple rounds for the first time in a century.
[What does Republicans controlling the House of Representatives mean for US-China tensions?]
McCarthy, who has been the Republican House minority leader for the past four years, won his party's nomination for president in a closed-door secret ballot in November.
In fact, he defeated Biggs, 188-31, and won 85% of the Republican conference vote from him.
But it was not enough, as he will need 218 votes in plenary to secure the presidency.
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In a call with House Republicans Sunday night, McCarthy outlined the concessions he would be willing to make to get the job, including
a rule change that would dilute the power of the House speaker,
CNN reports, which he cited multiple sources about the call.
The change would make it easier for rank and file members to remove a leader in the middle of Congress, and was a key demand from members of the conservative
House Freedom Caucus
congressional group who had been withholding their support.
Still, nine current and incoming House Republicans said in a letter dated Sunday obtained by NBC News that McCarthy had to do even more to win their support.
On top of that, there's a small group of representatives who say they won't back McCarthy under any circumstances;
They are known as the
"Never Kevins",
or Kevin Nunca, in Spanish.
[Historic week begins with the start of sessions of the new Congress in the US]
McCarthy can only afford a handful of Republican defections due to a slim party majority.
McCarthy allies say the conservatives' guerrilla tactics will only delay the House's new Republican majority from getting off to a good start and launching investigations into the Biden Administration, because the House can't make any deals until it has elected a Leader.
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It will be difficult to avoid government shutdowns
Even if having a divided Congress leads to legislative deadlock, you'll still have to keep things running in the country.
That won't be an easy task: Republican-led chambers have triggered government shutdowns under the past two Democratic presidents.
Will the president, Joe Biden, be an exception?
[Congress approves a government financing bill with electoral reforms to avoid another January 6]
McCarthy's fierce objections to a bipartisan government funding bill just before the Christmas break show that the House has very different priorities from Biden and the Senate.
McCarthy
has described the funding bills as a vehicle to force Democrats to swallow some conservative policy objectives,
such as tightening border controls and cutting long-term retirement spending.
“The expense is too much.
We need to cut spending,” McCarthy told reporters after a meeting with Senate Republicans on Dec. 21.
"This would be an opportunity for us to have some security on our border,
that's what we're missing."
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks to reporters after a Democratic policy meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, December 14, 2021.J.
Scott Applewhite/AP
Democratic leaders are waiting and seeing what happens.
“It is too soon to judge what is going to happen in the Chamber.
There is so much confusion and disunity on different sides of the Republican caucus,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters before the December recess.
“I have always gotten along with Kevin McCarthy.
We disagree on a lot of things, but I try to work with whoever I can to get things done for the American people."
The debt ceiling problem
One of the most daunting tasks of the new Congress will be to raise the country's debt ceiling in 2023 to make sure the United States can pay its bills and avoid bigger problems.
Wall Street is already spooked
by the prospect of brinkmanship, particularly after the last Democratic president to face off against a Republican House came within days of missing a debt limit.
With Joe Biden's signature, the budget approved by the Senate for 2023 is now law
Dec 24, 202200:22
Conservative lawmakers say a Republican House of Representatives should block a debt ceiling hike without major policy changes to rein in spending.
“We need fiscal restrictions and we must demand them.
And if we're not going to have fiscal restraints, we shouldn't be voting to raise the debt ceiling.
It's that simple,” said Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas.
“Neither side of the aisle gives a f--- cutting spending.
And we should… You shouldn't vote to raise the debt ceiling without structural change.”
[Republicans promised to improve the economy. But the party is going through an internal “civil war” over how to comply]
Rep. Mike Gallagher, R-Wisconsin, said the issue "will require a lot of robust
caucus
discussions " before a strategy is set.
“At certain key points, like [the] debt ceiling, we're going to have to find a way forward,” he said.
"Everyone will have to realize that you can't achieve 100% of what you would like."
Schumer said the issue must be addressed "in a bipartisan manner, and we will work in the next Congress to achieve that."
Investigations against Biden and his son Hunter
After four years in the political wilderness, newly empowered House Republicans are eager for the chance to investigate Biden and his Administration.
Rep. James Comer, R-Ky., who is likely to be the next chairman of the Oversight and Reform Committee, said Republicans plan to begin their investigations, beginning with the response to immigration and COVID-19.
Migrants at the border with Mexico in El Paso, Texas, keep warm, on December 22, 2022. John Moore / Getty Images
“Our first two hearings will probably be at the border … and the second will probably be on COVID-19,” Comer said in an interview.
The House will "eventually" call Dr. Anthony Fauci, who retired as the government's top infectious disease specialist late last year, to testify, Comer said, adding that his committee wants new information about how the government handled the coronavirus—which began during the Trump Administration—before putting him on the bench.
[Dr. Anthony Fauci, a mainstay in the fight against COVID-19, will leave his positions in the federal government after almost five decades]
The committee also plans a thorough investigation into Biden's son Hunter Biden and the presidential family's business dealings, just a year before Biden's likely 2024 re-election bid officially begins. Comer told reporters he did not has an interest in attacking members of the Biden family.
“This is an investigation of Joe Biden, the president of the United States,” he said.
And with the investigations could come calls for impeachment, not necessarily of Biden, but perhaps of others in his administration.
Some House Republicans are already calling for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to be impeached for his department's handling of immigration policy.
