After Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to march into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russo-Ukrainian war became a top priority throughout the year.
Until today, more than ten months later, the development of the war in Ukraine is still closely followed and reported by the world's major media.
Although the Russo-Ukrainian war can indeed change global politics, entering 2023, besides the Russo-Ukrainian war, there are potential conflicts across Asia, Europe, Africa, and the United States that deserve our attention.
This article gives you a brief overview.
(This is the first article in the same series. There are two articles.)
The Naka conflict in Russia's backyard: Azerbaijan is determined to eat Armenia?
The dispute over the sovereignty of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has been entangled since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, may end this year in the form of Azerbaijan's strong suppression of Armenia.
The Naka region belongs to the territory of the Muslim country Azerbaijan, but there are more than 100,000 Christians from Armenia, which is regarded as the "first Christian country" living on it.
The two countries fought over this in the 1980s and 1990s.
The leader of the Naka region is actually autonomous under the name of the "Republic of Artsakh".
In 2020, Afghanistan and Asia will go to war for another six weeks.
Azerbaijan defeated Armenia, which was theoretically protected by Russia, with new technological weapons such as Turkish drones. The two sides lost more than 7,000 troops.
After the ceasefire, Armenia handed over a large area of Naka territory and retained a Lachin Corridor (Lachin Corridor) as the only passage between the Naka region and Armenia, which was stationed by Russian peacekeeping forces.
At the turn of 2022 and 2023, Azerbaijan supported the demonstrators to block the Lachin Corridor, but the Russian peacekeeping forces failed to keep the corridor open.
After more than 20 days of blockade so far, there has been a shortage of supplies in the Naka region, but Azerbaijan's pressure has not been resolved.
The blue area at the bottom of the picture is the land won by Azerbaijan after the conflict in 2020. The dark green is the land that Armenia handed over to Azerbaijan according to the ceasefire agreement. The orange is the Naka region that is still under the control of pro-Asian forces. The dark blue area in the picture It is the only passage from Armenia to the Naka region.
The lower left green area is Nakhchivan, an outclave of Azerbaijan.
(Wikimeadia Commons)
At present, Russia is too busy to take care of itself on the Ukrainian battlefield, and has neither the intention nor the ability to support Armenia. At the same time, Azerbaijan has also bought the heart of the European Union by increasing natural gas supply to Europe, so it is even more confident in dealing with Armenia.
Negotiations between the two parties under the auspices of Russia and Europe in 2020 have been fruitless so far.
Now that there is no external force to intervene, Azerbaijan may annex the entire territory of Naka with force, and further pressure Armenia to open a land passage from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan (Nakhchivan), which will take the border area between Armenia and Iran to itself in disguise within control.
This move may detonate the conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran, the two major Shiite countries.
Reference article:
"Ripples of the Russo-Ukrainian War: Fake Protests and Real Blockades?
The Established Facts of Azerbaijan Concocting Naka
Election Year: Turkey Trying to Invade Syria Again?
Since last year, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (Recep Tayyip Erdogan), who is about to face re-election in June this year, has been asking Russia, Iran and the United States, which have various forces in Syria, to allow him to enter Syria again. A 30-kilometer wide area was created on the Syrian border. On the one hand, it serves as a buffer between the Syrian Kurdish armed forces YPG and the Kurdish areas in Turkey. Syrian refugees repatriated.
Turkey has backed rebels in what is now Syria's northwest corner, and Erdogan himself has called Syrian President Bashar al-Assad a "terrorist," "murderer" and "dictator."
However, Iran and Russia have also stood on the side of the Bashar regime over the years, and now they have swept away the anti-government forces, leaving almost only the Syrian national salvation government supported by Turkey (or the armed force behind it, HTS).
The Kurdish YPG has been supported by the United States since 2014, and has made great contributions to cleaning up the Islamic State (ISIS). Today, it is still working closely with the US to fight against the remnants of ISIS. However, the YPG is regarded by Turkey as its domestic struggle. Associate of the independent and autonomous terrorist organization the Kurdistan Workers Party (PPK).
The entanglement of various forces has resulted in the situation where there are many hills in Syria today.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in power for 20 years, will face re-election in June 2023.
(Reuters)
Against the backdrop of Turkey's inflation rate, which is almost the highest in the world, President Erdogan's re-election hopes are facing a crisis.
In this regard, he played left and right, while looking for opportunities to play the security card with the Kurdish issue, and on the other hand, he started to promote the sending away of Syrian refugees who have already caused serious public grievances and criticism from opposition parties.
Both involved the march into Syria.
The terrorist attack in Istanbul in November 2022 has been cited by Erdogan as a reason for airstrikes against Kurdish forces in Syria.
As of December 28, the Turkish Defense Minister and the Syrian Defense Ministry met in Moscow under the lead of Russia, which was the first time in more than 10 years for Turkey to intervene in the Syrian civil war.
After the meeting, the Turkish side claimed that the two sides discussed the "refugee issue" and "joint efforts to combat all terrorist organizations on Syrian soil", which clearly corresponded to the two major issues of Syrian refugees in Turkey and Kurdish armed forces.
Erdogan even expressed his willingness to meet with Syrian President Bashar, which shows his anxiety about advancing these election issues.
If the thawing of Turkey-Syria relations fails to achieve Erdogan's goals, it is not impossible for Erdogan to send troops into Syria when Russia and Iran are at a loss.
Reference article:
"Air strikes ordered on the opening day of the World Cup: Turkey is also preparing for "special military operations"?
"
Protests and nuclear deal: Iran faces internal and external woes
The anti-government demonstrations triggered by the death of a 22-year-old Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, who was arrested by the morality police for wearing a hijab improperly in September this year are still going on today.
Although the scale of the demonstrations in various places is not as good as before, the demonstrations have continued, and officials still openly express different opinions on how to deal with the demonstrations and how to adjust the implementation of the hijab order.
It can be seen that the demonstrations still pose a certain threat to the Islamic regime in Iran.
The Iranian authorities' suppression of demonstrators, and even the death penalty for some demonstrators, has made it more difficult for European and American countries to make any concessions to Iran in the negotiation of the renewed nuclear agreement.
And Iran's tough attitude of not allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to enter some nuclear activity sites for inspection has also made Europe, which was originally in a neutral position, lean more towards the US side.
Of course, during the Russia-Ukraine war, Iran sent drones to Russia, which further made it more difficult for Europe, the United States and Iran to reach a compromise based on mutual trust.
On December 31, 2022, Iran conducted a military exercise near the Strait of Holbenz.
(Reuters)
Some analysts even believe that seeing that Russia's "nuclear rhetoric" has prevented the United States from exporting long-range artillery shells, tanks, and military aircraft to Ukraine to a certain extent, Iran may have made up its mind to become a nuclear-armed state.
At this moment, Iran's time away from producing nuclear weapons has almost become zero, and it can be considered to be produced at any time.
If this happens in 2023, in addition to triggering an arms race in the region, or even a nuclear arms race, it may also prompt the new Israeli government, which has written the deal against Iran into the coalition government cooperation agreement, to take the initiative to attack Iran’s nuclear-related targets. The pre-existing stalemate has been pushed to the brink of war.
Since Iran has local pro-Islamic militant groups deployed in Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, and its territory also tightly holds the Strait of Hormuz (Strait of Hormuz), an important oil transportation route, even if Iran does not directly exchange fire with countries in the region , and its ability to create regional instability in different ways is also very impressive.
Just in October 2022, negotiations between the Yemeni-backed Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government failed after nearly half a year of ceasefire.
However, if the relationship between Iraq and Saudi Arabia becomes more tense this year, the proxy war in Yemen breaks out again, and the Houthi organization attacks Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates again, it seems inevitable.
On October 10, 2023, the nuclear agreement's normative provisions for Iran's development of ballistic missiles capable of loading nuclear warheads are about to expire.
The time before and after this critical time point will become an opportunity for the outbreak of various potential conflicts surrounding Iran.
Reference article:
"The Morality Police and the Hijab Are Not a Real Crisis in Iran"
Netanyahu, once again Israel's prime minister, went to pray at the Western Wall below the Temple Mount in Jerusalem.
(Reuters)
The most right government in history takes power, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict may erupt
Benjamin Netanyahu re-emerged as Israel's prime minister before the new year, backed by far-right and religious conservative parties.
The most right government since the founding of Israel is likely to intensify the conflict between Israel and Palestine, leading to a new round of bloody conflict.
The new government's coalition agreement states that all parts of Israel will be owned exclusively by Jews and will continue to develop Jewish settlements, a move that not only violates international law but will further inflame Palestinian discontent in the West Bank.
Meanwhile, Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right politician who has backed terrorist attacks against Palestinians, has assumed power in the new government over the suppression of Palestinian demonstrations in the West Bank and the security of the Temple Mount sanctuary.
Another far-right politician, Bezalel Smotrich, manages a wide range of civil affairs in West Bank Jewish settlements and local Palestinians as finance minister.
Within a few days of the new government taking office, on the 3rd of this year Ben Gevier broke into the Al-Aqsa Mosque (Al-Aqsa Mosque) on the Temple Mount under the protection of security personnel. The Palestinians described it as "unprecedented". provocative behavior".
The extreme right in Israel has always called for the construction of a synagogue on the site of the Al-Aqsa Mosque to replace it. After taking the post of Minister of National Security, Ben Gvir did not shy away from it and took the initiative to cause trouble.
It can be seen that the situation in Israel and Palestine is likely to enter into troubled times in the future.
Jordan's King Abdullah II, responsible for guarding the Muslim and Christian sanctuaries on the Temple Mount, warned ahead of the new right-wing Israeli government that he was ready for conflict if anyone "stepped over the red line" .
After years of stalling the two-state solution, the pent-up outrage among Palestinians could turn into another massive uprising, fueled by far-right Israeli officials.
Reference article:
"Israel welcomes the "Trump-like return" of Netanyahu, the most right government since the founding of the country"
(to be continued)
The Inevitability and Accident of the Russo-Ukraine War Another Imaginary for the End of the "Post-Cold War Era" in 2023 Review of Sino-Japanese Relations in 2022: Security Strategy Shifts from Defense to Offense
Peace talks?
Who will win the energy war?