“
Everyone asks the question: when will you take Bakhmout?
“Begins Yevgueni Prigojine, the boss of the private mercenary company Wagner, in an
interview
with the RIA Novosti news agency.
According to him, his fighters would storm every house in “
Artyomovsk
(the Russian name of Bakhmout Editor’s note)”, so many “
fortresses
” which prevent military progress.
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“
Today in the morning we took a house and broke through the Ukrainian defences.
And behind this house, there is still a new defence, and not just one
,” he adds.
“
How many such lines of defense are there in Artyomovsk?
If we say 500, we probably won't be wrong
,” he says.
In front of their boss, Wagner's mercenaries complain of a "
lack of vehicles, BMP-3
(an infantry fighting vehicle carrying ten soldiers, editor's note)
and 100 mm shells to advance more quickly
in
Artyomovsk
".
The Russian army, and especially the group of Wagner mercenaries, have been trying to take the city without success since May 17.
British intelligence, in its
January 3
brief , estimated that Wagner and the Russian army had "
increased the frequency of their infantry assaults around the town of Bakhmout in Donetsk Oblast in mid-December, but those were poorly supported
”.
In addition, the Ukrainian army has "
engaged significant reinforcements
" to defend the area "
over the past ten days
".
“
It is unlikely that Russia will make a significant breakthrough near Bakhmout in the coming weeks
,” concluded the UK Ministry of Defense.
A limited strategic interest
The city, almost completely destroyed, does not however present any particular strategic interest.
“
It's a marketing stunt for the Kremlin who would like to afford a victory.
Possession of Bakhmout, ruined by months of shelling, will bring nothing decisive because the Russians will come up against heights and new Ukrainian defense lines in the direction of Kramatorsk
,” notes Cédric Mas.
In addition, the progression proves to be difficult.
In question, the equal number of fighters on both sides, despite the arrival of reinforcements from Kherson since its abandonment, but also effective entrenchments.
"
In the Donbass, the lines have been fortified since 2015, which explains the rather slow progress in this area
," says Thibault Fouillet.
The Russians also come up against a tactical blockage: “
it is a logic where fire is superior to movement
”, he abounds.
“
The defense is too superior to the attack and the stop fire is very effective
”, continues Cédric Mas.
The assailant after having bombarded tried to advance, but ran into the enemy whose artillery stopped his breakthrough.
Read alsoThese counter-offensive scenarios that kyiv is preparing to win the war
These costly battles in human lives also allow both sides to "
fix
" the opposing troops on a specific point.
Thus, the Russian reinforcements from Kherson cannot be used for another offensive, on the
contrary
the Ukrainians cannot reallocate their soldiers to another front, or to rest them.
For several weeks, several pro-Russian accounts have been openly worried about a Ukrainian breakthrough around Zaporizhia towards Melitopol.
And Crimea.
