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Looking at the World in 2023: Inventory of Global Conflict Lines Beyond the Russo-Ukraine War (2)

2023-01-04T14:17:54.596Z


After Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to march into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russo-Ukrainian war became a top priority throughout the year. Today, more than ten months later, the fighting in Ukraine


After Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to march into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russo-Ukrainian war became a top priority throughout the year.

Until today, more than ten months later, the development of the war in Ukraine is still closely followed and reported by the world's major media.

Although the Russo-Ukrainian war can indeed change global politics, entering 2023, besides the Russo-Ukraine war, there are potential conflicts across Asia, Europe, and Africa that deserve our attention.

This article gives you a brief overview.

(This is the second article in the same series. There are two articles in total.)


Looking at the World in 2023: Inventory of Global Conflict Lines Beyond the Russo-Ukraine War (1)

Pakistan: Imran Khan Inside, Afghanistan Outside

In 2022, Pakistan can be regarded as misfortunes never come singly.

In April, after the former Prime Minister Imran Khan appeared to be fighting against the "behind the scenes" military, Congress instigated a vote of no confidence to oust him from office.

Shahbaz Sharif took over.

Without any evidence, Imran Khan pointed out that this was a conspiracy instigated by the United States to mobilize the people to continue large-scale demonstrations and demand early elections, causing serious instability to the Shahbaz government.

In the context of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates and increasing global inflation, Pakistan’s foreign exchange shortage may lead to Sri Lanka’s national bankruptcy.

After Shabaz came to power, he changed Imran Khan's policy and asked for help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but he was stuck in difficult negotiations and might have to implement unpopular reforms.

When foreign exchange is only enough for slightly more than a month of imports, the Shabaz authorities announced on January 3 that shopping malls and markets must be closed at 8:30 p.m. to save energy.

Such actions undoubtedly increased Imran Khan's popular support.

A shopping mall in the southern Pakistani port city of Karachi.

(Reuters)

From June to October 2022, Pakistan experienced severe floods, one third of the country's land was flooded, and more than 20 million people still needed humanitarian assistance.

According to World Bank estimates, its overall loss is as high as 30 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to 1% of its GDP, and reconstruction needs at least 16.3 billion U.S. dollars.

For Shabaz, who is facing political and economic challenges, this flood can be regarded as worse.

The resignation of Imran Khan itself is not surprising. After all, there has never been a prime minister in the history of Pakistan who can complete his five-year term in Congress.

However, Imran Khan, who has amazing political charm, has won the support of the people. After he stepped down, his party won many by-elections. Imran Khan even ran for multiple seats and almost won the election.

Imran Khan's faction even pointed the finger at the military, as if they wanted to use the soft fist of public opinion to meet the hard fist of the army.

After he was shot and wounded on November 3, he even accused Shabazz, a cabinet official and a senior military intelligence officer behind the assassination, which intensified the confrontation.

On November 4, 2022, Imran Khan met reporters after being sent to the hospital for treatment after being shot.

(Reuters)

No matter how Shabaz rejects Imran Khan's demand for an early election, Pakistan will have to hold a general election in October 2023.

Imran Khan's odds are high then.

If Imran Khan wins the election, how the military will respond will be a major turning point in Pakistan's political situation since the founding of the country.

Will the military give up its role behind the scenes?

Will the confrontation between public opinion and force detonate an unstoppable civil strife?

In addition to the political instability caused by Imran Khan, after the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan, the Pakistani Taliban, which is closely related to it, has recently launched frequent attacks. At the end of last year, it even hijacked an anti-terrorism center in Pakistan.

It can be seen that Pakistan, which is in the midst of internal and external troubles, will usher in a turbulent year.

Reference article:

"Pakistan Prime Minister's Visit to China Collides with Imran Khan's Assassination: Will China-Pakistan Relations Be Affected?"

"

Nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula?

2022 is the year with the largest number of missile tests in North Korea's history. According to analysis, the North Korean authorities have tested the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile capable of covering the entire continental United States for the first time.

At the plenary meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party at the end of last year, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un even stated that he would massively increase nuclear weapons production, including smaller tactical nuclear weapons.

As early as September, North Korea had officially declared itself a nuclear-armed country. Kim Jong-un declared that this was "irreversible", and he even made a law stipulating that when North Korea's leadership or important strategic items are under imminent attack, the military can use Nuclear weapons preemptive strikes.

Stepping into 2023, people will pay attention to whether North Korea will conduct a nuclear test, and even demonstrate to the outside world tactical nuclear weapons that are more suitable for attacking South Korea.

Analysts believe that when Russia's nuclear threat on the Ukrainian battlefield has indeed slowed down the European and American military aid to Ukraine, Kim Jong-un has seen the great benefits of possessing nuclear weapons.

Moreover, in the United States, which has been coldly dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue for many years, there is now public opinion that recognizing the status of North Korea as a nuclear weapon state may be the way out to avoid accidental conflicts.

North Korea's state-run media reported on January 2 that leader Kim Jong-un visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang on New Year's Day.

He also took a group photo with representatives of the 9th Congress of the North Korean Youth League on the 1st.

The picture shows Kim Jong-un approaching his children to greet him and ask them to hold his arm.

(Reuters)

In South Korea, Yoon Suk-yue, the right-wing president who will be elected in 2022, has always advocated being tough on North Korea and adopting a policy of deterrence rather than communication. It means to restrain people from attacking.

As a result, inter-Korean relations have become increasingly tense.

Just at the end of December, five North Korean drones flew into South Korean airspace. South Korean military planes tried to shoot them down, but returned empty-handed.

Since then, Yin Xiyue accused the military of insufficient preparation and criticized his predecessor Moon Jae-in, who was friendly to North Korea. He even claimed that he was discussing with the United States about joint plans and exercises related to US nuclear assets (the White House denied this statement), and threatened to suspend the 2018 North Korea. The "Agreement in the Military Field Aiming at the Fulfillment of the Historic Panmunjom Declaration" between South and South Korea prohibits specific "acts of hostilities" at all levels of land, sea and air.

As North Korea pushes forward with nuclear weapons development and aggressive military operations, and South Korea embarks on a policy of "head-to-head confrontation", it is not impossible for South Korea and North Korea to misfire in 2023.

On December 29, 2022, South Korea conducted an anti-drone drill.

(Reuters)

The Ethiopian Civil War Is Over

Compared with the Russo-Ukraine War, the Ethiopian civil war that broke out at the end of 2020 has suffered even more severe casualties. According to estimates from Ghent University in Belgium, the number of people who were directly killed, died of lack of medical treatment or died of starvation ranged from 384,000 to 600,000. It can be regarded as one of the worst humanitarian tragedies in the world in recent years.

In November 2020, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia launched an offensive against the "Tigray People's Liberation Front" (TPLF) that once ruled the country in the northern Tigray state, hoping to subdue local opposition to the federal government of military power.

Afterwards, the battle turned around. The government army once captured the capital, but was later counterattacked by the TPLF, and even once threatened Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia.

In the end, government forces cut off power and internet, blocked access to humanitarian supplies, cooperated with foreign military support, and added local forces from Eritrea, a neighboring state hostile to TPLF, and Amhara, a neighboring state of Tigray. In the end actually beat TPLF.

At the beginning of November 2022, the two sides signed a peace agreement, and the TPLF promised to disarm in exchange for the Addis Ababa government's opening of humanitarian aid imports, and required the Eritrean troops who crossed the border to join the war to leave Tigray.

On November 15, 2022, the United Nations medical supplies were shipped to the capital of Tigray.

(Reuters)

Peace in Ethiopia, however, may be short-lived.

First of all, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has long had an indissoluble enmity with the TPLF, which has been in charge of Ethiopia since the 1990s. It is still unknown whether he will miss the opportunity to wipe out the enemy in one fell swoop and retreat number.

Secondly, Tigray has a territorial dispute with Amhara in the west, and the dispute is not resolved, and the conflict may still break out.

Third, how to integrate the leadership and armed members of the TPLF into the government system will be a major problem, and troubles may arise again at any time.

Finally, the Oromo ethnic group to which Prime Minister Ahmed belongs still has rebels, and the war may only break out in another field.

Although Ethiopia is one of the few countries in Africa that has never been colonized, since its monarchy ruled by defeating the Italian army in the 19th century and established today's Ethiopia, this country with more than 80 different ethnic groups has been in a state of great Ethiopianism and ethnicity. Among the rivalries among the divided federalisms.

Today's Ahmed government is a representative of the Great Ethiopianism, and it has suppressed federalist forces such as TPLF.

If this contradiction is not resolved, the haze of civil war will exist for a long time.

Reference article:

"Ethiopian Civil War: The Contradiction between the Unified State and the Federation|Geographic View of the World"

Civil strife continues in Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has a vast territory and abundant natural resources. It has the world's second largest tropical rainforest, timber, oil, natural gas, gold, diamonds, and cobalt (Cobalt, which accounts for 70% of the world's reserves), Tantalum is indispensable for computers and mobile phones.

Although the bloody rule of the Belgian colonialists left indelible damage, the self-interested rulers of the Congo and the intervention of surrounding countries that snooped on its resources have kept the Congo in turmoil for many years.

In the civil war from 1998 to 2003, the troops of eight surrounding countries intervened, resulting in the death of millions of people.

Today, even with the largest UN peacekeeping force in the world, the situation remains worrisome.

The most turbulent place in Congo lies in the eastern provinces of Ituri, North Kivu and South Kivu, where nearly 120 different armed forces form a network of interlocking conflicts.

These armed forces are not aimed at overthrowing the government, nor are they weapons used by neighboring countries against the Congolese government.

They each compete only for the benefit of natural resources, and also clash to protect themselves from other armed forces.

The sphere of influence of armed groups in eastern Congo is complex.

(Kivu Security Tracker)

The recent activities of the M23 militant group that surrounded Goma, the capital of North Kivu Province, in 2013 have attracted international attention.

In 2021, President Felix Tshisekedi (Felix Tshisekedi), who came to power in a clear election fraud, enforced military law in the provinces of Ituri and North Kivu, but was unable to suppress the activities of armed groups such as M32. It is more likely to multiply.

Tshisekedi therefore had to seek help from outside.

At present, the Ugandan and Burundian armies have intervened, and Kenya has also sent troops to deal with M23.

But Rwanda, which is also on the eastern border of Congo, seems to be dissatisfied with other countries' involvement in weakening its local influence, so it responds by supporting M23's activities.

Although Rwanda denies the matter, Tshisekedi has publicly accused Rwanda of this, and the internal report of the United Nations also shows that there is sufficient evidence to prove that Rwanda was involved.

With the uncertainty of another presidential election in 2023, the chaos in eastern Congo seems unlikely to subside.

Reference article:

"The United Nations peacekeeping force opened fire and killed two people. The source of the conflict between Congo and Rwanda?

"

West African Sahel "abandon law for Russia"

The Sahel region on the southern edge of the Sahara Desert in West Africa has in recent years become the center of activity for global terrorist organizations such as Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS).

The ideology of Islamic fundamentalism, coupled with local countries' discrimination against the transnational nomads in the Sahel, and the economic backwardness of these areas have provided an excellent soil for the activities of terrorist organizations.

In the past ten years, France, the former colonial power, has been the main force in the fight against terrorism in the region. When France advocates that the EU should have its own independent military action capability, European countries are also gradually participating in it.

However, Mali and Burkina Faso in the Sahel region each face two military coups in 2020, 2021 and 2022 respectively.

The soldiers in charge of both are dissatisfied with the French army, which has not been able to suppress terrorist activities for a long time, and thus advocate the anti-French sentiment left over from colonialism.

France has completely withdrawn from Mali in August 2022, replaced by the Russian mercenary group "Wagner Group".

Neighboring Ghana also publicly accused Burkina Faso in December of having reached an agreement with "Wagner".

On social media in the Sahel region, Russia has always had an anti-French propaganda campaign in place.

Local people often use the Russian flag as a representative of anti-Fa.

The trend of the Wagner Legion replacing the French army can be regarded as a geostrategic victory for Russia's stepping into the French-speaking African region, and at the same time interrupted the "small test" of the EU's overseas military activities led by France.

But regardless of the geopolitical competition of external forces, whether it is the French army or the Wagner Legion, the way countries in the Sahel region deal with terrorist activities is still inseparable from tough force suppression, rather than improving the local nomads and the southern population. Central barriers and local economic conditions.

Without non-military policy cooperation, no matter where the protagonists of purely military anti-terrorism operations come from, it will be difficult to eradicate the problem of terrorism in the region.

Reference article:

"The Sahel of West Africa: Why the Desert Is the Center of Terrorism?"

|Geography to see the world

Looking at the world in 2023: Inventory of global conflicts beyond the Russo-Ukrainian War (1) The Inevitability and Contingency of the Russo-Ukrainian War Another imagination for the end of the "Post-Cold War Era" in 2023 Review of Sino-Japanese relations in 2022: Security strategy shifts from defensive to offensive The reality of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2023: stalemate?

Peace talks?

Who will win the energy war?

Source: hk1

All news articles on 2023-01-04

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